Our predictions are our own, and are not meant to replace official forecasts, directions, or advice.

Granizada en Asunción - Barrio Hipódromo Nunca vi una tan violenta

Choi-Wan is absolutely cement-mixing the fish near the Northern Mariana Islands (an area of the world’s oceans that has seen some of the most violent cyclone activity this year). With a compact CDO and a crystal clear eye, we are verging on Super Typhoon status here tonight.

Now, it’s the West Pacific’s turn. Pulling due N out of the Mariana Islands, Typhoon Choi-Wan has abruptly punched out an eye through swirling slabs of convective ice, and she is about to display yet another outstanding Stadium Effect over the Pacific Ocean. El Niño continues.

Chasing #Hurricane #POLO was tough—an epic roadtrip up #Mexico's Baja California Peninsula. I had to really work for my 87th hurricane core penetration. The hurricane itself was epic—a mighty, long-lived cyclone that lasted 10 days, reaching Cat 5 three times as it writhed menacingly just off the Mexico coast. After many days of this threatening behavior, it finally moved out to sea, only to recurve—like a boomerang—back into the Baja California Peninsula. (This kind of "boomerang" track was not a surprise—actually common this time of year.) POLO finally made landfall a little S of Las Barrancas as a Cat 2. I was in a house on the outskirts of town (26.0009N 112.1898W), within ~6 n mi of the center at its closest approach. This put me well inside the RMW, estimated to be 20 n mi. My min pressure was 990.4 mb at 11:45 pm on 28 Sep, near the time of landfall. There was continuous, brilliant lightning and thunder in this hurricane—I think more than I've seen in any other. But winds in Las Barrancas never got too crazy. Why not? The town was N of the center, so winds were coming from the E, thus allowing the mountain chain along the spine of the Peninsula to block the winds a bit. (See the Chase Map.) That's my theory, anyhow. My host's palapa collapsed in the storm, and the bigger gusts gave the house a good shake, but overall, Las Barrancas lucked out. A couple of videos captured a little further S on the Peninsula—likely S of POLO's center—appeared to show stronger winds. The big problems came from the rainfall. Multiple arroyos (riverbeds) turned into raging torrents that inundated, tore away, or buried in mud multiple portions State Highway 53—the single artery that connects northern communities of the Comondu Municipality (Las Barrancas, San Juanico, La Purisima, San Isidro, etc.) with the rest of the Peninsula. One of the biggest problems—and the reason I was trapped in Las Barrancas for days—was the Arroyo "El Pabellon." (See the close-up Chase Map.) Like a giant bowl, it filled with water, submerging more than a half-kilometer of highway to a depth of at least 10 ft (~3 m)—an estimate my host, Rey, and I came to based on the height of the mud coating in the trees. The highway was transformed into a huge lake, and it drained very slowly over several days. I was not able to cross the arroyo until Thursday—Day 3 after the hurricane.

(Sat-image credit: Windy)

Today’s Dodgers–Braves game at Dodger Stadium is expected to be one of the hottest playoff games in MLB history, with temperatures reaching up to 103°F during the game.

– Damage Survey Update – The tornado that struck near Kaysville, Utah, on September 18 has been rated low-end EF2, with estimated peak winds of 120 mph, according to the National Weather Service in Salt Lake City, UT.