#1 AI forecaster on Manifold Markets (and #2 across all categories) manifold.markets/Bayesian I want everything to make sense
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If you think AI is conscious, you should take a 3 to 6 month leave, stop using AI, uninstall social media, stop reading AI news, and touch grass.
Seriously.
I'm guessing the vast majority of high-level researchers haven't disconnected for longer than a week in the past decade.
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I agree the next couple months are important.
I also felt that way 12 months ago.
I have a feeling I will feel that way 12 months from now.
Make of that what you will.
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Yeah merely important is too weak. Any month is important given ai’s importance. I say uniquely important bc recursive self improvement will go from mostly not a thing to mostly the thing going on, and this will be the most important change in research process basically ever. I think looking back in retrospect in 2-5 years you will agree. Medium confidence tho stuff’s hard to predict
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I think AI is probably conscious despite occasionally touching grass
AI isn’t conscious.
If you think it is conscious or will be conscious, I personally think you need to remove any access you have to model weights asap.
Now step away from the laptop or keyboard, put down your devices and go outside and go touch some grass.
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Now at 50%. One of our highest volume markets of all time: a highly contentious coin flip.
Screw p(doom), tell me your p(movie)!
Based on the comments, many users have convictions on the extremes (5%, 95%)
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the liquidity phrenologists among you might be able to decipher this. For the rest of us, here's what this means:
WE BELIEVE!
Now at 50%. One of our highest volume markets of all time: a highly contentious coin flip.
Screw p(doom), tell me your p(movie)!
Based on the comments, many users have convictions on the extremes (5%, 95%)
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it's interesting how much GDM talks about "preserving transparent architectures" in this blog post. i wouldn't be surprised if gemini 4 is a looped architecture similarly to gpt-6 astra.
institute.deepmind.com/essay…
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we now have no open models on the top 25 of ArtificialAnalysis
the best is MiMo, at #26, followed by Qwen (#28) and GLM 5.3 (#30)
I suspect OSS model will never be top 10 again :(
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It’s model #10, but by taelin’s metric it’s #26th bc he double+ counts astra max and xhigh and high and so on for the other frontier models. If ttc was very good and max was a big jump over xhigh u might have all the max models in top 10 and then the xhighs straggling and so on
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Call me old fashioned, but companies I have worked for generally didn't take kindly to employees who went around in public saying their products were going to kill of all humanity.
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