📺 Yields May Be Topping — Is This The Start Of The Next Stock Rally?
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@ConnorJBates_ notes that the new month and quarter are starting on a constructive note, with market leadership holding up well and several beaten-down areas finally showing signs of stabilization.
The S&P 500
$SPX /
$SPY remains a short-term battleground around its 8- and 21-day EMAs, but the bigger technical development was an undercut and reclaim of the 50-day moving average.
Meanwhile,
$QQQ remains the clear leader and looks increasingly poised for a breakout.
After running from roughly $700 toward its prior peak near $748,
$QQQ has been building a tight handle just below the highs. That’s exactly the kind of consolidation you want to see after a strong advance.
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The more interesting development, however, may be what’s happening underneath the surface.
$RSP had been down seven consecutive weeks with a persistent series of lower highs, but it just produced a hammer after undercutting and reclaiming the prior day’s lows.
The Dow
$DIA is attempting a similar reversal around its longer-term moving averages, while mid-caps
$MDY have reclaimed the 200-day and are pressing against their downtrend line. Small-caps
$IWM is also showing early signs of stabilization.
If these lagging areas begin participating while tech remains strong, the market could transition from a narrow leadership environment into something closer to an “everything rally.”
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But the biggest signal may be coming from bonds.
$BND and
$TLT both produced sharp reversal patterns after becoming extremely stretched to the downside.
$TLT in particular had moved well below its 8-day EMA before reversing.
If that bond reversal can build over the next several sessions, Treasury yields may be forming a short-term top.
That matters because yields remain one of the biggest macro drivers for equities. Falling yields could remove a major headwind for growth stocks and potentially provide the fuel for
$QQQ and the broader indexes to break higher.
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The timing is also interesting.
We’re entering a historically favorable stretch of the calendar, with October through year-end typically offering stronger seasonality, alongside a particularly positive portion of the presidential cycle.
So the setup is becoming clear:
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$QQQ is sitting near breakout territory
– The S&P has reclaimed its 50-day
– Breadth may finally be attempting a reversal
– Bonds are bouncing
– Yields may be topping
– And favorable seasonality is arriving
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Now the market needs confirmation: recent lows need to hold, the S&P needs to maintain its 50-day reclaim,
$QQQ needs to break through its prior highs, and the bond reversal needs follow-through.
If those pieces come together, this could be the setup for the next broader stock-market rally.
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Watch this Short video where
@ConnorJBates_ breaks it all down in detail 🔽