Said differently - D's have to expand their base to win while R's have to get their voters to the polls (posted about those challenges earlier).
What the midterm convention in Dallas was all about.
In the meantime, Talarico has issues with his own base - specifically Black and Hispanic males who think he's gay and lying about it.
That's an electoral reality the legacy media will NEVER report.
Over the past few days, I created a massive data model for all 254 counties in Texas and wargamed a “pessimistic” scenario for the Senate. I will share what those ingredients are in terms of margin and turnout.
I didn’t set out to make a virtual tie, but that’s what I got. This is a Paxton +0.13 (14,035 margin on 10.251 million votes) map.
As you may be able to tell I took a lot of liberties.
When I explain this map I think a lot of people will see exactly why Talarico needs debates - because getting to a tied map in a Trump +14 Texas is way different than the Trump +9 Cruz had to defend.
Realistically, a Talarico victory ceiling is very small, certainly under 1%, and would require numbers that are unprecedented. Unprecedented things do happen, but anyway. The 5-6 percent polls should result in deportation.