Don’t forget how early we are into this cycle 👇
I have accurately predicted every macro top and bottom on bitcoin:native since 2020 and from a timing, technical, and sentiment perspective, everything is pointing to a bitcoin:native bottom, here's why:
‣ Spreads on candlesticks have compressed
‣ The 4-year cycle is still intact (albeit slightly sped up)
‣ BTC was the 5th-largest asset at ATHs (14th today)
‣ Crypto is the lagging asset class
‣ Cycles continue shortening as sophisticated traders front-run tops and bottoms
‣ Social signals are flashing bottom (Google Trends, sentiment, etc.)
‣ Technical signals are flashing bottom
Timing: On average, it has taken ~370 days to mark the bottom after a top. Since the Oct. 25 top, it has been 306 days. With each bear market shortening, this is right in line with an expected bottom from a timing perspective.
Technical: bitcoin:native is down 54% since topping. In the 2022 bear market, bitcoin:native dropped 77%, and 83% in the bear market preceding that. The trend is clear: volatility is stabilizing, while expansions and contractions are becoming less extreme.
Similar to contractions shrinking, expansions are acting in accordance. bitcoin:native expanded 720% from the bottom and 83% from the previous ATH, whereas in the previous cycle, bitcoin:native expanded 1,900% from the lows and 247% from the previous highs. I expect this trend to continue into the next cycle.
bitcoin:native has begun to consolidate around the previous cycle's ATH, which has historically been an area where bitcoin:native falls back to before making its next leg higher. On top of this, we are accumulating in an extremely compressed range. Prices historically compress and accumulate like this at range lows. This range (~$60K) is where smart money stepped in and accumulated large amounts of bitcoin:native before it ripped to ATHs last cycle. bitcoin:native is also not far off its Realized Price, which gives us the average price per buyer.
Sentiment: Google searches for bitcoin:native are at shockingly low levels. Retail is checked out, and we've seen this happen in the past during bottoming periods.
The general perception of crypto is guttered, and nobody has any interest in touching our shady crypto tokens... especially while their equities and commodities portfolios are skyrocketing YoY.
I expect this capital to rotate into crypto as crypto becomes consensus again.
Although sentiment is guttered to the average person, a clear vibe shift is percolating. Players like Robinhood are fully embracing crypto, crypto payments are growing rapidly, stablecoin adoption is exploding, life is coming back to the on-chain trenches, and ceilings are beginning to raise again.
All of this happening at the stone-cold bottom of the bear market gives me a lot of hope and excitement.
To conclude, it feels like everything is stacking up to create the perfect storm for bitcoin:native and the broader crypto market to completely explode in the coming weeks and months.
I'm positioning, and I think you should too.
Who knows, maybe this ages like milk. But my conviction, experience, and research are telling me to it will age more like wine.