FRDM = Freedom. Trading crypto toward financial independence, in public. Every entry published before it fills, win or lose. Free signals below.
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My strategy for this bull cycle is already in place. Here are a few of my winning positions already.
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After a day that closed down 3 percent or more, bitcoin's next day closed green 58.6 percent of the time. After any other day, 50.1. Ten days out, 56.1 against 54.0.
399 drops in 3,327 days, before costs. Would you size into that?
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Two years of weekly closes: in the weeks the dollar rose, bitcoin averaged minus 0.23 percent. In the weeks it fell, plus 1.09.
Same coin, same period, one variable. It tilts the odds, it does not decide the week.
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Spot bitcoin ETFs took in about 2.8 billion dollars over six sessions to 24 September, and 1.35 billion of that went to IBIT alone.
That run flipped the year from roughly 5.5 billion out at the end of June to 787 million in.
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Swift's shared ledger beta has 17 first mover banks, BNY, Citi, HSBC and UBS among them. IBM connects its Digital Asset Haven clients to it through a messaging adapter.
Tokenised deposits can move around the clock, but final settlement still runs through the old rails.
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ETH's 1 October close was 72.6% above its lowest daily close of 2026, and 19.3% below its highest. The recovery and the remaining gap use different starting points. Binance spot, completed daily closes.
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The FCA says 21 CFD firms have closed since 2025 and three more are cancelling their permissions.
The complaint was not the leverage. It was firms using a UK licence as a badge to make an overseas entity look regulated. Check who you actually signed up with.
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AlphaFi is winding down on Sui after an oracle misconfiguration left ALPHA backed loans under collateralised.
The team said on 25 September that the bad debt was covered and withdrawals open. Check before you act on it.
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IBIT began trading in January 2024. Its record covers far less history than Bitcoin itself. The fund's chart and the coin's longer track record answer different questions.
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The hard part is that narratives can stay extreme for months. Taking profit early costs upside, so the plan has to decide beforehand how much of a position conviction is allowed to keep.
Corrections do happen in markets.
The moment that everyone is shouting about 'this coin is going to flip #Bitcoin' or whenever other narrative gets extreme.
That's your call to be taking profits. Doesn't have to be all, just some.
Narratives come and go.
Probably we'll start to see a lot of sounds screaming about the fact that the bear market continues.
It won't.
Buy the dip. You'll be all right.
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Solana traded 44 percent of all DEX volume back in January. Last complete week it traded 24, almost exactly where it sat a year ago at 25.
That is a spike being given back, not a chain quietly losing its base.
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BTC’s 21 September Binance close was 1.9% above $85,000. The same UTC session traded from $80,850 to $87,396. A close above the line and an entire day spent above it are different observations.
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BTC's 1 October close was 44.8% above its lowest daily close of 2026, and 12.5% below its highest. The recovery and the remaining gap use different starting points. Binance spot, completed daily closes.
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OG.com filed with the CFTC to list single stock perpetual futures. Cash settled, no expiry, 24 hours a day, five days a week.
Coinbase, Kalshi and Kraken's Bitnomial filed for the same thing on 18 September. The perp is leaving crypto and arriving in equities.
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The two year Treasury yielded 4.78 percent on 1 October, 90 basis points above the middle of the Fed's target range. In January it sat below it. The gap was last this wide in November 2022.
That gap is the market's forecast, not an instruction for the next meeting.
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Hester Peirce leaves the SEC on 2 October, and the agency is then down to two sitting commissioners.
As of 25 September no successor had been nominated. The one commissioner who argued publicly for self custody is the one walking out.
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The SEC staff put out new FAQs on 25 September.
If a crypto network already works, announcing a token buyback does not by itself make that token a security, and a staking receipt token can count as a digital commodity.
Worth noting it is staff guidance, not law.
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Bitcoin's nine completed Octobers on Binance, 2017–2025, averaged an 18.1% open-to-close gain. The middle observation was 11.0%. A few large years pull the average up. Nine observations describe a small historical sample, not a target for October 2026.
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The median bitcoin session in 2026 ran 2.9 percent from high to low, measured to 26 September. 69 of the 269 sessions came in under 2 percent.
Only 43 ran 5 percent or wider. That is one day in six at the wide end, with 157 sitting in between.
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