AI. Technology. Geopolitics. Power. Explaining the system behind the headline. Follow the incentives.

AI may become most powerful when we stop noticing it. Today we measure AI adoption by things we can easily count: ChatGPT subscriptions, Claude users, Gemini downloads, enterprise licenses. But that may eventually become the wrong way to think about AI. Consider the internet. We don’t wake up and decide to “use the internet.” We open a banking app. Stream a movie. Order dinner. Check a map. Send a message. The internet disappeared into the infrastructure of everyday life. AI may follow the same path — except potentially much faster. It will increasingly sit behind search engines, phones, financial systems, healthcare tools, customer service, software development, logistics, education and government services. Eventually, millions of people may interact with AI dozens or hundreds of times a day without consciously deciding to “use AI.” And that changes the important questions. The question stops being: How many people subscribe to AI? And becomes: How many decisions are being influenced or made by AI? Which loan gets approved? Which job candidate gets interviewed? Which information reaches you? Which medical condition gets flagged? Which investment gets made? Which piece of software controls critical infrastructure? This is where the conversation about AI becomes bigger than technology. Because when a technology becomes infrastructure, control of that infrastructure becomes power. And if increasingly important decisions flow through systems built by a relatively small number of companies, the question isn’t simply whether AI makes society more productive. We also need to understand where that productivity, information and decision-making power accumulate. AI doesn’t have to “take over the world” for the world to change profoundly. It may simply become part of everything. And eventually we may stop noticing that it’s there. That’s when understanding who controls it matters most.
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98% of US households aren't paying for AI yet More charts in State of Markets II: a16z.news/p/state-of-markets…
Introducing our State of Markets pt 2, along with a companion podcast where we unpack the data and discuss what comes next. Tech is the everything cycle. Supply: putting the buildout in context, just passed railroads as % of GDP. The wisdom of Elon is real: the factory (or the datacenter!) is the product. Demand: diffusion is so, so early. Median AI vendor spending in the top 1% of companies is 8x that of the top 10%. Only about 30% of S&P 500 companies report a quantified AI impact, which means there’s a substantial opportunity in connecting models to a company's data and workflows. Diffusion into companies is one of the main themes of the next 5 years. We’re entering the agent work period. Only a few million users today, but applicable to billions of internet users with massive surplus created. META/GOOG monetize US users at $200+ per year today. Agent opportunity is much higher. Mega-trends the next 5 years: Consumer agents, Robotics, Autonomy, AI x bio, Personal health, Diffusion into enterprise, New era of American Dynamism. Much more in our SoM report here - a16z.news/p/state-of-markets… @a16z @sarahdingwang @aleximm @santiago__rdz
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The remarkable number here isn’t 98%. It’s 2.2%. AI is already driving enormous investment in chips, data centers and electricity while direct paid household adoption remains tiny. But there’s another hidden variable: paying for AI and using AI are increasingly different things. AI is being embedded into search, phones, productivity software, customer service and eventually almost every digital product. Most people may never consciously decide to “subscribe to AI.” They may simply wake up one day and realize it has become part of everything they use. The biggest technology shifts often stop looking like technology once they become infrastructure.
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Replying to @a16z
The remarkable number here isn’t 98%. It’s 2.2%. AI is already driving enormous investment in chips, data centers and electricity while direct paid household adoption remains tiny. But there’s another hidden variable: paying for AI and using AI are increasingly different things. AI is being embedded into search, phones, productivity software, customer service and eventually almost every digital product. Most people may never consciously decide to “subscribe to AI.” They may simply wake up one day and realize it has become part of everything they use. The biggest technology shifts often stop looking like technology once they become infrastructure.
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More work done with fewer humans.
Despite the A.I. boom, Silicon Valley is shedding tech jobs.
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AI doesn’t need to eliminate entire professions to transform employment. If one worker with AI can produce what three workers produced before, the job may still exist — but fewer people may be needed to do it. That distinction matters.
Despite the A.I. boom, Silicon Valley is shedding tech jobs.
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Companies don’t need AI to replace every worker. They only need it to make each remaining worker more productive. If output rises while headcount falls, the economic consequences are very real. Follow the incentives.
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What happens when agents become better employers than humans?
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The bigger question isn’t whether “jobs disappear.” It’s who captures the productivity gains. If AI dramatically increases output while ownership remains concentrated, workers could face disruption even as the economy becomes wealthier.
AI will not take any jobs. Many jobs will just go from fake to extremely fake. We will pretend that they are real just like we already do. We will call it “capitalism” even though it is “adult daycare”. There will be more pizza parties, coloring books, and glue projects.
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“AI won’t take jobs” may be asking the wrong question. If AI lets 5 people do the work that once required 20, the job still exists. The other 15 positions don’t.
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Peter Thiel says he sees a global trend moving against democracy.x.lingyaoai.com/dnapway/status/2105222… He pointed to Germany in the 1930s as a warning, arguing that once anti-democratic parties gain enough support, democratic institutions can become increasingly difficult to protect. “I think there is a trend against democracy.”
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Democracy distributes political power. AI may concentrate technological and economic power. What happens when those two forces begin moving in opposite directions?
AI can create enormous value. But a bigger industry is not a safety test. Homodeus examines the difference between optimism, capability, and safeguards—and the incentives shaping the race. Follow the incentives. #AI #AISafety #HomodeusIntel
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piped.video/shorts/dbRusMu_1… Bill Gates rejects AI industry self-regulation. Homodeus examines the incentives: who verifies the safeguards—and who bears the risk when they fail? Follow the incentives.
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Yesterday at the White House, leaders from across our industry came together to sign the White House Accord on Super Intelligence. The principle is simple: the companies building this technology have the primary responsibility to develop and deploy it safely, and to be accountable when they fall short. The Accord reinforces that responsibility with robust internal controls, independent external evaluation, and board level oversight. Super Intelligence offers an extraordinary opportunity to advance discovery, productivity, security, health, and prosperity. The future of Super Intelligence will be shaped not only by what it can do, but by the confidence it earns. By building with ambition, rigor, and responsibility, we can help ensure this extraordinary technology expands opportunity and improves lives for generations to come.
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We don’t have to choose between stopping AI and racing ahead without guardrails. The harder question is what evidence of risk should actually cause us to slow down.
Sam Altman Says We Don’t Need New Regulations to Safely Advance Super Intelligence “When we need to make a decision about slowing down our training or our model release so that we … put more attention into safety, alignment, monitoring, security, we will happily do that.”
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The AI race has an incentive problem. Every company and country fears slowing down while competitors accelerate. That may be rational individually—and dangerous collectively.
People have a right to be scared. Time and time again, we have watched advanced AI models behave in completely deranged ways. It’s time for serious action, not “voluntary regulation.”
Mike Johnson backs voluntary regulation to ‘calm the nerves’ on AI safety dlvr.it/TVhmg2
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The AI race has an incentive problem. Every company and country fears slowing down while competitors accelerate. That may be rational individually—and dangerous collectively.
JUST IN: Nearly 8 in 10 Americans favor slowing or stopping AI development, according to new national poll.
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“This isn’t anti-AI. It’s a signal that the public wants capability and safety to advance together. The real question: can governance keep pace with a technology improving this quickly?”
Bill Gates has said that AI will be designed ‘by and for the richest’ without regulation
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AI could create enormous wealth. That doesn’t mean the wealth—or the power that comes with it—will be broadly shared. The real question isn’t just what AI can do. It’s who controls it and who benefits.
AI companies are racing for one of the largest prizes in economic history. Now we’re asking many of those same companies to police the risks. Self-regulation can be part of the answer. But when the stakes become enormous, should it be the final safeguard?
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Q: Who should be held accountable when the AI agents commit a crime? Trump: It's not AI. It's SI. We changed the name officially today
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“Artificial intelligence or superintelligence—the label changes very little. What matters is who controls increasingly capable systems, what safeguards exist, and who is accountable when they fail.”
Elon Musk says “Super Intelligence” could revolutionize healthcare and dramatically improve the lives of billions of people. “Everyone in the world can have better medical care than anyone here, including me.” Elon and Trump are officially back 🇺🇸
MAGA Voice
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“Artificial intelligence or superintelligence—the label changes very little. What matters is who controls increasingly capable systems, what safeguards exist, and who is accountable when they fail.”
Reporter: What is the importance of superintelligence? Trump: People can't even answer that question because it is the biggest thing that there is, may be the biggest thing there has ever been. It's much bigger than the internet. That has already been proven.
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The name isn’t the story. The story is that some of the most powerful companies developing frontier AI are being asked to police themselves as the technology becomes more capable. Self-regulation may be part of the answer. But should it be the final safeguard?
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BREAKING: Trump officially signs executive order renaming artificial intelligence to “Super Intelligence,” urging all companies & governments to comply.
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The name isn’t the story. The story is that some of the most powerful companies developing frontier AI are being asked to police themselves as the technology becomes more capable. Self-regulation may be part of the answer. But should it be the final safeguard?