A SEVERE FLASH FLOOD THREAT targets the Lower Texas Coast today, with relentless rounds of tropical downpours threatening to dump even more rain...
Between Brownsville and Corpus Christi, explosive thunderstorms developing over the Gulf will repeatedly push onshore. Fueled by intense atmospheric moisture, these storms will produce extreme rainfall rates of 2 to 3 inches per hour. With soils already waterlogged from up to 8 inches of rain over the past three days, this renewed deluge carries a high probability of localized totals exceeding 8 to 10 inches. A targeted Moderate Risk is in effect, as this sheer volume of water will quickly overwhelm urban corridors and sensitive soils, despite the region's naturally sandy terrain.
Further east, a stalled front and near-record atmospheric moisture (pushing above the 99th percentile) will set the stage for a separate barrage of heavy precipitation across the central Gulf Coast. Steering winds are expected to collapse, causing intense thunderstorms to stall and "train" over the exact same areas from Mobile Bay eastward across the Florida Panhandle's Emerald and Forgotten Coasts. While highly absorbent sandy soils have kept this region at a high-end Slight Risk for now, localized totals of 3 to 8 inches could easily trigger scattered flash flooding.
Finally, a localized flash flood threat extends up the Georgia coast, centered around Savannah. With grounds already compromised from recent rains, two distinct rounds of heavy thunderstorms, one this afternoon fueled by the sea breeze and another tonight, could overwhelm local drainage with intense 2 to 3 inch per hour rainfall rates.