Chief economist at @InnovateEconomy. Host of the EconTwitter Water Cooler, live on twitter spaces and downloadable here: anchor.fm/adam-ozimek

Lancaster, PA
What should we do about high skilled immigration and why? This is the topic of my huge new report with @LettieriDC and @cojobrien: Exceptional by Design. Quick thread on why I think you should read this report. eig.org/exceptional-by-desig…
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Adam Ozimek retweeted
The narrative is blame China and trade, and it’s mostly wrong. The general point is that areas relatively more exposed to negative demand shocks saw more job losses and had a hard time adjusting or did not adjust at all. The China Shock lit is based on a clever way to identify a particular type of negative demand shock (import competition). It only shows areas more exposed lost more jobs relative to less exposed regions. It cannot credibly produce a general equilibrium total job loss number. What we learned is adjustment to those shocks is hard. What politicians heard is only China Shock bad, must reverse China Shock. It’s a rhetorical question but there were 2 million manufacturing jobs lost during Great Recession, what are doing about that? It appears to be, almost nothing, because there is no clever ID strategy.
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Adam Ozimek retweeted
AI won’t take your job. Someone who knows how to use AI better than you, will take your job.
We’re already starting to see what kind of new jobs AI is creating. AI requires significant technical work and surrounding services to deploy into the economy. This means jobs for AI engineers that build applied AI products sold to (or within) enterprises, FDEs to deploy agents into companies, new services firms for deploying AI, and more. And even the published stats of new jobs undercount all the existing jobs that are transitioning to new areas of AI work in an enterprise. Many prior data, research, and software jobs large enterprises are also being repositioned for working with AI. Every bank, life sciences company, manufacturer, and even law firm is bringing on more technical talent -or repositioning existing roles- to help with agent deployment in their companies. It’s a lot easier to picture what AI can replace vs. what it creates until it starts happening. Now we’re seeing what this looks like.
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I don’t think AI is alive but the movie AI is pretty telling about the limits we could face
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Digger still holding on to the decent audience score. Is this just selection bias @SonnyBunch @petersuderman? Why is a challenging movie pleasing crowds more than critics??
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Mr Beast is good wholesome fun. A positive cultural force.
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Adam Ozimek retweeted
Policymaker: “We need to end Secular Stagnation” <Secular Stagnation ends> Voter: “Thanks. I hate it.”
the true end of the Great Stagnation
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This is a good proposal!
REVEALED: A think tank co-founded by Facebook’s founding president wants an entirely NEW visa category to repopulate struggling American communities with foreign workers. It’s called the HEARTLAND VISA. They’ve already mapped roughly 1,700 potentially eligible counties—home to 58 MILLION Americans. The Economic Innovation Group, co-founded by Sean Parker, wants at least 100,000 visas a year. The pitch is explicit: “In exchange for living in a Heartland Visa community, workers with sufficient earnings will gain permanent residency” American communities become the destination. Green cards become the incentive. The proposal targets places struggling with population decline, including rural communities and former industrial centers. Foreign workers would have to live in a participating area—but could work for an employer located elsewhere. The think tank also proposes replacing labor certification with an earnings test for the green-card pathway. That would remove the usual labor-market test from this proposed route to permanent residency. The idea has already reached Capitol Hill. Republican Senator Todd Young and then-Senator Joe Manchin introduced a version in December 2024. Supporters included AOL co-founder Steve Case, Americans for Prosperity and the Niskanen Center. County officials would decide whether their communities participate. EIG continued lobbying for the proposal in 2026. This is an organized push to turn population decline into a justification for a new immigration program.
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Adam Ozimek retweeted
Even with all the tariffs ensuring American manufacturers pay far above the world price for steel, taxpayers still have to pay $770,000 per job to get a steel plant built here. If government treated every industry this way, inflation would be approximately 1000%.
"Stop the Steel? Iowa approves $1.36 billion for foreign-owned steel plant in swing district less than 2 weeks before early voting" cbsnews.com/news/iowa-steel-… "The incentives roughly amount to about $777,000 in credits per permanent job over 10 years, a hefty price tag by any standards"
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“That America and the UK were the good guys still has heft, substance, and authority, and Tucker's whole transvaluative approach is to burn down good things with weight and substance by elevating evil bullshit into seriousness to prove his own transgressive courage.”
I hear Carlson a bit differently here. Yes, he's definitely suggesting he'd be fine with the Nazis winning. the war and defeating Britain. But what comes through for me is the profound intellectual and moral unseriousness. It's a kind of debater's nihilism that thinks any good sounding talking point is a good point. For instance, he says at least if Germany won, Britain would be speaking a "European language." That sounds clever to un-clever people. But it's moronic on its own terms (Would Tucker be okay with Americans speaking Spanish? That's a European language, too). It reduces the interests and issues involved in WWII down to a ridiculous single metric. It's childish bullshit, but it sounds sophisticated to the insipid and the ignorant and it thrills those who understand the trolling of it. And that's why this interview is representative of Tucker more broadly these days. He's at sea. Nothing really matters except "winning" the conversation, the moment, the clicks. He's embraced a kind of Nietzschean amoralism that thinks sowing doubt in any notions of right v wrong, good v evil, traditional patriotism v transgressive iconoclasm is self-rewarding. "Neocons" and their ilk think Putin is bad? I'll claim he's awesome with the dumbest arguments imaginable packaged like they're smart. Similarly, Tucker likes to traffic in the idea that Hitler should have won, not because Tucker's a big believer in Nazism. He's not a big believer in *anything* other than the bit itself. He likes the idea that the Nazis should have won, because he likes turning over turtles and being a dick for the amusement of people who celebrate dickishness. More specifically, he also likes it because the argument that it was a good thing we defeated the Nazis is inconvenient to him and his pet causes. That America and the UK were the good guys still has heft, substance, and authority, and Tucker's whole transvaluative approach is to burn down good things with weight and substance by elevating evil bullshit into seriousness to prove his own transgressive courage. Every argument is permitted and equally valid because all truths are equally just matters of opinion. The superior opinion isn't the one with the better facts or the better reasoning, it's just the one more confidently or sneeringly expressed. That's why this interview went badly for Tucker, because he ran into someone who actually knows true things and is confident in what he knows. This is also why Tucker spends most of his time talking to cranks, bigots, weirdoes, and hacks who are good at sounding like experts so long as their bullshit goes unchallenged. Tucker doesn't give a rat's ass about ideas or history. He cares about vibes and sowing moral doubt about what is good by hawking moral support for what is bad. The Holocaust becomes a triviality in that project, which in a very real way, is worse than denying it happened. He's denying it didn't really matter much if it did.
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That’s not the word in Moscow, sorry!
This is absolutely priceless. Tucker just states as fact that Russia has a much larger economy than the UK, is completely wrong and gets schooled.
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Audience score for digger coming in much better than critics. Doesn’t seem like the kind of movie that should cause that divide??
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People like to excuse inaccurate movies about real life people by saying well its a fiction inspired by real life events. I bet if someone made a movie about you like that you'd be pretty furious!
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Hope everyone enjoyed this week of tweets. Everyone got mad about the football coach and his video game, and then today I was accused of genocide.
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Another point about this. When we came out with Heartland Visas, a lot of people seemed to believe that rural and small town areas were doomed, there is no use helping. But clearly this is not the case. We can help them ever more with Heartland Visas, which nobody is mad at today.
There are of course prior trends, but the clean break in large urban vs rural at 2020 is very compelling evidence of a turning point that year IMO
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There are of course prior trends, but the clean break in large urban vs rural at 2020 is very compelling evidence of a turning point that year IMO
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You can see its not just rural, but small town that has seen a turnaround. This is an oft appealed to part of America, and you don't see a whole lot of recognition that things have improved there.
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Adam Ozimek retweeted
Everything you need to know about the transmission reforms in the permitting bill—in depth analysis from @CtheLala. "If passed, the bill would constitute the most significant improvement to transmission and grid governance in decades." publicenterprise.org/the-bip…
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Adam Ozimek retweeted
Here is a note I wrote on manufacturing (and other goods-producing industries) in the United States.
A declining role of goods production in the U.S. economy has long been a topic of intense policy and research focus. But goods production remains more important than narrow measures might suggest. (1/2) federalreserve.gov/econres/n…
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