This is the major difference. It does show me just how much of a widely misunderstood view this is, when many analysts don’t seem to grasp it. A full cycle bear is long and deep. It resets the whole market, across the board. It is a Bitcoin dominated drop and a Bitcoin dominated recovery. Thus, it takes years to reach new highs after, and altcoins don’t have a prayer during that time - meaning positioning in them is folly. A mid cycle bear is the total opposite. It does not reset the whole market, in fact, it primes it. It is not a bitcoin dominated drop, and during the bear, ETH/BTC goes into an uptrend and OTHERS.D bottoms. Thus, it does not take years to reach new highs, it takes months. And it is an ETH and altcoin dominated run afterwards(we are already seeing this). It has drastic effects on overall market position and how one actually positions into it. If you do not understand the way in which the market is correction, you will… 1. Not understand why the bottom is forming higher up then before, leaving you sidelined 2. Not understand that we are now in an altcoin dominated market, and again, leaving you with no exposure It makes incredible amounts of difference… it’s not just “well price went down and now it’s going up again which is a bear market”. It’s like night and day difference between the overall market position of a full cycle bear, and a mid cycle one. And how you position for it is also extremely different.

$BTC investors that bought the top are currently selling. Two cohorts sit underwater: buyers from 1–2 years ago at $97k, and from 6–12 months ago at $89k. Those who bought the 2025 rally are selling the most coins per day this year. Those who bought the decline are not.

It's very funny to see. For months, many of the 4 year cycle guys were arrogant and certain. Happily pushing $35k targets over and over. But this is not how the overall market looked. Now, after Bitcoin has made its low long before they expected, they are pretending they called it. And when they get a little push back now on their previous arrogance, they can't take it. The fact of the matter is that Bitcoin IS mid cycle. It is not a debate anymore. When you look at the charts below, that show us the overall market dynamic, with: - Bitcoin(main player) - ETH/BTC(dominance between the top 2) - OTHERS.D(dominance of altcoins) - OTHERS(actual altcoins chart) It is very very clear. Going into the mid cycle correction of 2019: - ETH/BTC downtrend - OTHERS.D downtrend - OTHERS downtrend Going into the full cycle high of 2021: - All in an uptrend Now, look at the correction of 2025/2026 - it is the exact same as 2019/2020. Same length, almost same depth. Each full cycle high is followed by a much longer and deeper correction. The anatomy of the overall market shows you, clear as day, that the 2025 high was not a full cycle high. I do not understand how anyone can look at this chart, and tell me it is not so.

The cycle calendar said bottom in Q4 2026, down 75%+. Bitcoin bottomed 1 July, down 54%. Cycles exist. The calendar doesn't run them. Credit and the business cycle drive the turns, and they turned first.

With the Sept monthly close, the remaining confirming factors for a new Bitcoin Cycle are now in. The slightly early Cycle Low (44 months vs 47), and lack of deeper move in June/July sets up a possibility of a Cycle that could well (upside) surprise. Versus say the diminishing return idea. But, don't forget that new Cycles (in all assets) generally have one major shakeout, the type to give bears hope, one more time.

Bitwise files updated prospectus for its XRP ETF, keeping the door open for new share issuance. 🎉 This is a great find! Xaif always brings something great to this community. Love your work!

🚨 $RLUSD supply just hit a new high at $2.49B, up 86% since the start of 2026. It's now only $248M behind PayPal's $PYUSD, which is down 35% from its peak 💀 Ripple is catching up to PayPal while PayPal is going the other way.

Another extremely HTF Bullish signal is looking like it's about to print. The Bitcoin Monthly RSI is about to close it's first bullish cross, after going below 50, since Feb 2023. Every single time the Monthly RSI has done this, it has sparked the start of the largest runs in history... That do not stop until major cycle highs. Within these monthly candles you can see, of course, there will have been LTF corrections. However, the overall HTF trend, after this event, is massively up and to the right... always. We can also see on this chart very clear evidence that October 2025 was not the actual major cycle high. The Monthly RSI never entered overbought, as it has in every previous major cycle high. We did not need more evidence that this recent bear cycle was a mid cycle bear. But we have it anyway. In the case we drop a lot over the next 2.5 hours, and we don't close like this... I do not think it matters much long term. As we can see looking the RSI history, Bitcoin has never approached a monthly RSI bullish cross, and then not taken it quickly after. If its not this month, it will be next. This will very likely be the beginning of the actual run that takes us into that overbought area, and our major cycle high in 2028, is my view.

Altcoins are going into a major bull market for only the third time in history.

This is not a drill! (much more exciting) CSD BR is major financial market infrastructure in Brazil, something analogous to the DTCC, if you like. #Ripple announced is bringing the #XRPL into its regulated infrastructure. It's big and will get bigger.