Macro, markets and the occasional company deep dive. Central banks, currencies, bonds, trade. Long-term investor. Not financial advice.

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Netflix spent $9.9B buying a stock it says the market has wrong. Paid $98. Close: $67, about $3B down on paper. YouTube takes 14.2% of US TV time, Netflix 7.8%. No insider bought. Oct 20: hours watched.
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Netflix Is Betting $9.9 Billion That the Market Is Wrong

Since July 2025 Netflix has spent $9.9 billion buying back its own stock, at an average of $98 a share. On Friday the stock closed at $67. That's half its June 2025 peak and the lowest close of the

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Missed the market this week? These are the stocks behind the week's biggest headlines, and how much they moved. 🟢 Winners $SYNA +18%: ON Semiconductor switched to an all-cash offer, $123 a share $ACN +13%: a record $84.5B in bookings cooled the "AI kills consulting" fear $VICR +10%: raised its Q3 outlook again on royalties from its AI power patents $NVDA +4%: a new all-time high, a $150B buyback and a ~$5.7T market value 🔴 Losers $FICO −23%: a regulator put a $1 rival on equal footing, −27% in one day $WDC −9% and $STX −7%: Toshiba plans to add hard-drive capacity for AI data centers $NKE −5%: full-year profit outlook far below what analysts expected Shrugged off $TSLA: Q3 deliveries beat estimates and the stock jumped 5% on Friday. It still ended the week −0.4%. Insider buy of the week $NYAX: the founder and CEO bought about $7.5M of stock in one week, as the company closed a $350M deal. The backdrop: September added just 29K jobs vs 84K expected. Brent stayed above $100 after Trump rejected Iran's offer to reopen Hormuz. Which move surprised you most? Not financial advice.
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Nayax's founder and CEO bought about $7.5M of $NYAX stock in late September. In the same days, the company closed its largest acquisition: IPS, a parking-payments business, for $350M in cash, around a fifth of Nayax's market value. The company's capital and the CEO's own money are now tied to the same deal. Nayax provides payment terminals and software for unattended retail: vending machines, EV chargers, arcades. It has 1.55M connected devices, and revenue grew 30% over the last twelve months. IPS extends that business into parking. The stock remains 36% below its 52-week high, and the reasons are concrete. A subsidiary's cloud account was breached in July. In Q2 the company reported a $10.1M net loss against an $11.7M profit a year earlier, with negative free cash flow. The IPS purchase now takes $350M of cash. Large acquisitions are where investors most often question management's judgment. Here the CEO increased his own position first, buying at $44-45 shortly before the deal closed. The purchase adds only about 2% to a stake he already holds, so it signals confidence rather than proves it. The shares closed at $49 on Friday. What matters next is whether IPS adds growth without straining cash flow, and whether Nayax returns to profit. The coming quarterly reports will answer both. Not financial advice.
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These companies raised their dividend every year for 50+ years. Through 2008, Covid and 9% inflation. Some of them pay you 5-8% a year right now. The 20 highest-yielding US Dividend Kings: $UVV 7.9% $MO 6.3% $HRL 5.9% $KMB 5.3% $PEP 4.6% $NWN 4.2% $FRT 4.2% $MZTI 4.0% $BKH 4.0% $SWK 3.8% $ED 3.5% $GPC 3.4% $UBSI 3.3% $PG 3.0% $TGT 2.9% $CWT 2.9% $NFG 2.9% $HTO 2.9% $SYY 2.8% $MGEE 2.7% Put $10,000 across all 20 and you'd collect about $400 a year. A 10-year Treasury pays more today, 5.3%. The difference: a bond coupon never rises, and these payouts have for half a century. The catch: the top yields are usually the stocks that fell the most. Know why before you chase them. Yields as of early October. Not financial advice.
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Last year Xenon's CEO sold $XENE stock at $40 and $45. This week he bought it back at $37, after a crash that wiped out a third of its value. The CFO joined him with his first shares ever. What scared the market, and why aren't they scared? 👇
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2/2 My take Insiders sell for many reasons, but buy with their own cash for one. The CEO nearly doubled his stake. The CFO went from zero to 15,000 shares. Still, $1.7M is small for a $3.7B company, and the FDA decision on epilepsy is the real test. Not financial advice.
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1/2 What scared the market Xenon's main drug is tested for two things: 🔴 Depression: trials paused Sep 18 after psychiatric side effects. Data in 2027 🟢 Epilepsy: untouched, already filed with the FDA The market priced the first. Insiders seem to bet on the second.
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There are several ways to get bitcoin:native and $ETH exposure through the stock market. But these stocks don't track crypto one to one. Each depends on something different: leverage, trading volume, interest rates, or a business mostly outside crypto. A quick breakdown 👇
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5/5 $HOOD : a broker with some crypto Crypto was $100M of Robinhood's $1.31B Q2 revenue, down 38% YoY. Prediction markets already contribute more. Key driver: overall retail trading. For direct BTC or ETH exposure, a spot ETF is the simpler route. Not financial advice.
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4/5 $CRCL : a stablecoin issuer paid in interest Circle issues USDC and holds the reserves mostly in Treasuries. ~95% of revenue is interest on those reserves. Its results depend more on the Fed than on bitcoin:native. Key drivers: USDC growth and interest rates.
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3/5 $COIN : an exchange paid on activity Coinbase earns fees on trading volume, whichever way prices move. Quiet markets mean lower revenue. Subscriptions and services, mainly USDC interest and staking, are now ~48% of revenue. Key driver: trading activity.
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2/5 $BMNR: an ether treasury with yield BitMine holds ~6M $ETH, close to 5% of supply. Most of it is staked, generating ~$330M a year in rewards. Similar model to MSTR, but built on ether and with recurring income. Key drivers: ether's price and staking yield.
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1/5 $MSTR : leveraged bitcoin Strategy holds ~846K bitcoin:native, funded in part by ~$21B of debt and preferred stock. That leverage amplifies moves both ways. MSTR typically rises more than bitcoin and falls more too. Key driver: bitcoin's price.
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Nike $NKE beat earnings tonight. The stock still fell ~5% after hours. The guidance explains why. Q1 EPS: $0.48. Full-year guide: $1.15-1.35. That leaves $0.67-0.87 for the next three quarters combined. Nike just told you this was the good quarter 👇
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2/2 My take Some of the drop is on purpose: fewer discounts, less selling on its own site. Wholesale only -1%, North America grew. But China and Converse keep sliding, and the guide says it gets worse first. Cheaper Nike isn't fixed Nike. Not yet. Not financial advice.
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1/2 So how did Q1 beat? Not with sales: 🔴 Revenue -4%, online -13% 🔴 Converse -28% 🔴 China and EMEA down With cuts: 🟢 Overhead -6%, mostly lower wage costs 🟢 Gross margin +0.6 pts on cheaper logistics The beat came from the spreadsheet, not the shoe store.
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The best AI business might not be selling chips. It might be getting paid every time someone else builds a server. Vicor $VICR , a 45-year-old power supply company, just pulled that off. The stock is up ~70% in a month. How it turned into an AI toll booth 👇
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2/2 My take The toll is real: 4 OEMs and hyperscalers pay, royalties tripled in a year. But at ~31x sales, the price assumes they keep growing every quarter, at rates only Vicor knows. The easy part of this run is done. Oct 20 has to prove the rest. Not financial advice.
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1/2 What Vicor actually does An AI chip drinks huge amounts of current. Usually power travels across the board to reach it, and some is lost as heat. Vicor's fix: put the power right under the chip. Shorter path, less heat. Everyone wants that now. To build it, they pay Vicor.
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Accenture $ACN reported today. Wall Street spent the year pricing it as an AI casualty: stock down about 30% YTD, near a 52-week low. Then the numbers: a record $84.5B of new work signed this year, and 141 deals over $100M in one quarter. So is AI killing consulting or not? 👇
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2/2 Fine print 🔸 EPS +46% flatters: Q4 a year ago had restructuring costs. Adjusted, +9% 🔸 AI bookings no longer reported separately Verdict: business steady, not broken. Stock: ~18% pop recovers only part of a 30% drop. Not financial advice. Source: financialcontent.com/article…
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