Pinning this to help convert between multiple alternative numbering systems in use for influenza H5N1 hemagluttinin.
Replying to @jbloom_lab
In addition, we have made a page to help convert between the many confusing numbering schemes used to name HA mutations: dms-vep.org/Flu_H5_American-… (Throughout we use H3 numbering, but other studies use other schemes)
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Euan Arnott retweeted
J Vet Diagn Invest . Detection of highly pathogenic avian influenza A(#H5N1) virus, clade 2.3.4.4b, genotype B3.13 in placentas from aborted bovine fetuses flutrackers.com/threads/j-ve… h/t tetano
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Euan Arnott retweeted
Replying to @wysyq @Mau10415616
ST.1 is clearly a good XFG variant (with some other useful mutations besides A435S - see below), but its share in Spain reached plateau a while ago while TK.1 continued to grow, so I don't think plain ST.1 is driving current Spanish wave, which is more a result of antibody waning
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Euan Arnott retweeted
Covid in the Republic of Ireland 'National SARS-CoV-2 Wastewater Surveillance Programme' In Week 37 (to 19 September 2026) SARS-CoV-2 was detected in 28/30 catchments. The viral load was stable in 04 areas, increased in 25 and decreased in 1 area. (HPSC data & charts)
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This sounds like an opportunity for comment from @MichaelSFuhrer on hospital trends for SARS-2, if I can manage to tag him correctly this time (I botched that on providing him the Spanish data source & was rescurd by @simon_faire )
Replying to @nicolasberrod
S'agissant des passages aux urgences pour suspicion de Covid, les deux derniers pics sont désormais dépassés. 2/2 santepubliquefrance.fr/sites…
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British Columbia (Canada) PJ.2.1 - it's not just sewage samples in BC: this KP.3* saltation now has actual patient sequences too Not a surprise, just keeping an ear out for growth since PJ.2.1 is epidemiologically relevant - with *clinical* behaviour still uncharacterized (NB)
10/2日提出された PJ.2.1 seqs は下表の通りで、合計21件ありました。GISAIDでは、これらはKP.3.1、MC.1 及び PJ.2という系統名で表示されています。 CanadaのBritish Columbiaから14件提出されていますが、以前より排水中には検出されていたものの、個々の患者からの検出は今回が初めてとなります。
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Euan Arnott retweeted
The free bottle of milk on every British school desk was put there by a 4ft 10 redhead from a Manchester slum, who was dead within 6 months of doing it. Ellen Wilkinson grew up in Ardwick in the 1890s, in a house with no bath, and caught every illness going. She got out on scholarships. By 1935 she was MP for Jarrow, a shipbuilding town where the yard had shut and 7 men in 10 had no work. She had seen what that did to the children. They were small, bow-legged and grey. In 1936 she walked with 200 of their fathers from Jarrow to London, nearly 300 miles, to hand in a petition. The Prime Minister would not see them. In 1945 she was made Minister of Education. She had one thing she wanted above the rest. The Treasury told her the country was bankrupt and it could not be afforded. In August 1946 a third of a pint of full cream milk became free for every schoolchild in Britain, every day, whatever their parents earned. That winter was the worst of the century. Her ministry had no coal. She worked in her overcoat with bronchitis, and on 6 February 1947 she was found dead in her flat, aged 55. She never saw a single class of those children grow up. They turned out the tallest and straightest generation the country had ever produced. If you drank it, warm, through a paper straw, you were her life's work.
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Euan Arnott retweeted
AFluDiary Blog `Antiviral Research: N70S/Y155H Combined Mutation of Neuraminidase of Avian Influenza #H9N2 Virus confers oseltamivir and zanamivir resistance and pathogenicity to Mice' afludiary.blogspot.com/2026/…
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Euan Arnott retweeted
As predicted a couple weeks ago, the peak of this relatively small summer wave was approximately Sept 16.
Regional trends are shown here from Biobot. I think we are about a week from the peak, as trends typically reverse a few weeks after schools return. We will see if that pattern from previous years holds up on this late wave. Not shown: much bigger 2024 summer wave reaching 1000.
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Euan Arnott retweeted
SARS-CoV-2 Primary Care Surveillance in England Data from the RCGP Sentinel Surveillance system of around two thousand GP Practices. In Week 39, ending 27 September 2026, the RCGP national average COVID-19 incidence rate for England (all ages) increased… (RCGP data & chart)
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Euan Arnott retweeted
The Covid wave in England is likely continuing to grow, and infection levels as of 27 September were probably between 1 in 249 and 1 in 218 people infected. This is the time to take sensible precautions against catching Covid in all indoor places. A (short) thread 🧵
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Graphs are *always* better for me: can look at integral as well as maximum wave height (Among other things...) Suspect this year's (2026) Spanish XFG* wave will have LOWER *cumulative* positives (integral) than 2025 despite slightly HIGHER *peak* than last year
El gráfico ilustra de forma clara por qué fijarse únicamente en el pico de una curva, en lugar de en el área que abarca debajo, puede llevar a conclusiones engañosas.
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Euan Arnott retweeted
1. Sometimes I find it difficult to remain professional and measured on this platform. This is one of those occasions, as I watch politicians seemingly unable to grasp the fact that with Covid in a state of constant and unmitigated transmission, children will be sick more often..
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Euan Arnott retweeted
Covid in England SARS-CoV-2 Laboratory-Identified Cases notified to UKHSA under the NOIDS Health Protection Regulations - W39 Weekly data, often published prior to the UKHSA Covid Cases signal, gives an early indication of the trend in prevalence. (UKHSA data, @gwladwr chart)
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Nice illustration of low-hospitalization BA.3.2 wave in Summer prior to current XFG* Autumn wave Wonder what generic "BA.2.86" is in blue in recent weeks - maybe some PJ.2.1? Or 'just' RF lineages?
🇪🇦 España. VIGILANCIA VIROLÓGICA DE SARS-CoV-2 🔶Caracterización genómica de los casos CENTINELA en ATENCIÓN PRIMARIA. Temporada 2025-2026 (Hasta semana 38/2026) docsivira.isciii.es/Informe_… (1/3)
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Following my post below, I decided to write to the body responsible, pointing out that it is incorrect to say that fit-tested unvalved FFP3 face masks do not filter air expelled by the wearer so should never be worn by an infectious person. I have just had a response! 🥳🧵
According to the revised Scottish infection & prevention control manual for healthcare workers ""RPE [FFP3] should never be worn by an infectious person as the respirator filters incoming air and not the air being expelled by the wearer." 🧵
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The PCR positivity map is out. Adjusted national positivity in England is up to 9.3%. We're still waiting for this week's Scottish data. I'll update the thread when it's out. jamestindall.info/skeuomorph… 1/6
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Euan Arnott retweeted
AFluDiary Blog `Novel Swine Flu and Remembrance' #1976 #H1N1 afludiary.blogspot.com/2026/…
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On importance of local knowledge: If one did not know about Silver Week, one might have prematurely concluded that Japan's Kanto-centric COVID was was now on the way out Pretty sure it isn't, and "rebound" will soon appear! [c.f. Spanish XFG wave & school return timing there]
1都3県の2026年第39週(9/21‐9/27)までの定点当たりのコロナ感染者報告数をまとめてグラフ化するとこんな感じです。今週は1都3県の全てで減少しています。この減少はシルバーウィーク効果でしょうから、来週以降の推移に着目したいところです。
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Here is Spain currently BTW Sharp spike is school return We're all rooting for a quick fall after the pointy top is reached (very shortly)
En la semana 39, la última de la temporada actual, la covid ya superaba el pico de 2025 (122,3 frente a 138,8) y se acerca al de 2023 (141,5), aunque sigue lejos del máximo reciente de 2024 (184,5).
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