Rabid poli-sci goblin. OSINT analyst. PhD in quantitative political science, EDM fanatic, Jewish, lesbian, and dog lover. Anti-authoritarian classical liberal.
Seattle
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Responses to my posts often include homophobic and antisemitic slurs. Sadly, they neglect the third part: goblin. I’m proud of my heritage as an ancient she-elf twisted and warped by Morgoth. I’m uniquely skilled at delving into dark places, as a good OSINT analyst should be.
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Dr. Alice Frost retweeted
Negotiations to end the war in Ukraine "have expanded to include a multibillion-dollar oil deal that would benefit Middle Eastern business executives with ties to the two main U.S. negotiators, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner" reports @nytimes
nytimes.com/2026/10/03/us/po…
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Dr. Alice Frost retweeted
The Bottom Begins to Drop Out:
nationalreview.com/carnival-…
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Unbelievable. Trump plunges the world into an oil crisis because of his poorly thought-out war, and the G7 countries agree to release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude oil from their strategic reserves, in part to forestall a U.S. diesel export ban.
For perspective, 100 million barrels is less than one day's total global oil consumption, and the release is being spread over four months. It may provide temporary relief, but it does not solve the underlying supply problem.
The way to deal with a bully is to stand up to him. Trump will just go further next time. It also sets a bad precedent and creates moral hazard: a U.S. president can take unilateral action that contributes to a global energy crisis, threaten America's allies with further economic disruption, and then induce those allies to absorb part of the cost.
Breaking news: G7 countries have agreed to release 100mn barrels of diesel and crude oil from their strategic reserves. The decision comes as Donald Trump attempts to bring down high diesel prices for US drivers ahead of November’s midterm elections. ft.trib.al/E4Yvq3b
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Dr. Alice Frost retweeted
NEW!! Japan is rolling out new Russia sanctions targeting its military-industrial base, sanctions evasion and the 'shadow fleet.'
The package freezes assets of 33 Russian entities and 9 individuals, restricts services for 35 vessels and adds export curbs.
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The U.S. military is preparing a major reinforcement of its Middle East posture, including the deployment of a third aircraft-carrier strike group and roughly 9,000 additional personnel, according to the AP and Washington Post. Escalating is not a viable long-term strategy unless it leads to a negotiated settlement, but the signs are that Iran remains entrenched on its principal demands despite continuing negotiations.
In the meantime, Trump is continuing to weaken our strategic posture in the Indo-Pacific, where American military power is truly needed, reducing the forces and munitions available to deter or respond to Chinese aggression, which could have consequences that dwarf what we are seeing with Iran.
At what point does Congress actually assert its constitutional authority and end the war? The Trump administration has already gone well beyond the maximum 90-day period contemplated by the War Powers Resolution without congressional authorization.
The House voted 220–204 on September 15 to end unauthorized U.S. military operations, but the Senate rejected a War Powers Resolution 49–50 on September 24.
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Autonomous warfare will transform every military domain, but that does not mean it should be centralized under another four-star command. AUTOWARCOM, announced by Pete Hegseth on September 30, does exactly that.
In my latest piece, I argue for a federated model: let the services develop capabilities suited to their missions, while a joint organization sets interoperability standards, coordinates experimentation, and integrates autonomous systems across the force.
The goal should be to make autonomy intrinsic to how the military fights, not turn it into a separate warfighting domain.
Don't forget to subscribe to lminus1 if you like the content!
The Case Against Centralizing Autonomous Warfare lminus1.com/the-case-against…
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At some point, Putin or a successor will accept that a war with Ukraine cannot be won on Russia’s terms, and there will be peace, likely with an intact Ukraine.
When that happens, Ukraine will be one of the major military powers in Europe. NATO would be foolish not to admit Ukraine should it seek membership.
Ukraine will emerge from this war with one of Europe’s largest and most combat-experienced militaries, an increasingly sophisticated defense-industrial base, and hard-earned expertise in modern warfare that few NATO members possess.
Ukrainian tactical ballistic missile. FP-7. First combat use. Thank you for the result. Next up: production. Glory to Ukraine!
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Reposting an article I wrote about a month ago on why Pete Hegseth's distracting culture war nonsense is hurting us.
If you want to read more articles like this, subscribe to lminus1.com
It's free now and forever.
Brawn Is Not Going to Win the Next War: lminus1.com/brawn-is-not-goi…
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While China pours resources into drones, shipbuilding, autonomous systems, C4ISR, electromagnetic warfare, and advanced missiles, we are devoting the Secretary of Defense's attention to testosterone, fat soldiers, PT, religious affairs, and how to undermine our allies.
By the way, the Pentagon is finally moving more aggressively on autonomous warfare by announcing AUTOWARCOM. We are late to the party, and, given where the SECDEF's priorities lie, I am deeply skeptical.
Hegseth: "Today, at my direction, I'm establishing the Office of Religious Affairs. It will report straight to the top -- a direct line to the secretary ... as Psalm 33:12 extolls us, blessed is the nation in which God is the Lord"
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I have said it many times: Trump represents the nadir of American politics. Tolerance of North Korea's many crimes because Kim Jong Un, a sociopath who uses anti-aircraft guns to execute people, condemns entire families to collective and intergenerational punishment, executes people for consuming or distributing foreign entertainment, has starved and impoverished his whole country, and has developed nuclear weapons, is a friend, is beyond the pale.
And just yesterday, Trump was saying that Canada is "one of the worst countries in the entire world."
It is an interesting view into the mind of a man wholly unsuited for any job on Earth, let alone president of the United States.
Trump: Kim Jong Un is a friend of mine. He likes Trump. Doesn't like a lot of other people.
I'm the only person in the entire world that he likes. And I like him.
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I am fed up with those elements on the right denigrating "globalists." I am a globalist and a cosmopolitan, and here is what we believe:
1. We believe that every country is connected to every other country economically, environmentally, and politically. No event truly exists in isolation in this world.
2. We believe that policies must take the global nature of the world into account. Trade restrictions impose costs not just on other countries but on the country imposing them. Relaxed pollution standards hurt the country with those standards, as well as its neighbors and even those far away. Appeasing a dictator means that other revisionist powers take note.
3. We believe in a rules-based order as a cornerstone of global stability.
4. We believe in democracy, civil rights, and free markets as the best available systems for providing the greatest number of people with personal and economic freedom, and the opportunity for personal fulfillment and happiness.
5. We believe that individuals rather than states are the ultimate moral unit.
Globalism does not require believing national interests don't exist. It means recognizing that national interests frequently cannot be pursued intelligently while pretending other countries are irrelevant.
I am a globalist, and proud of it.
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