consumer investing is in a VERY bad spot.
heres why:
even if sales are good, even if you are growing, why should an investor buy?
warby parker is an amazing brand.
but compared to Nvidia?
Nvidia grew revenue over 100% last quarter.
Profit was up over 100%.
They did 60 BILLION IN PROFIT. in ONE QUARTER.
No fooling, no add back, GAAP profit.
Are you growing 100%?
is your profit up 100%?
Reformation just went public, they will grow 20%. they trade at the same multiple.
The AI trade is so powerful, the revenue so sticky, so large, all contracted, at such insane growth and profit... why buy anything else?
You think diversity.
But if nvidia implodes, is nike the safe heaven? is walmart?
or does everything blow up anyway.
Nvidia has a triple threat:
- massive scale (60 billion in profit in one fucking quarter)
- massive growth (growing faster than any company at their scale ever)
- with GUARANTEED revenue. all contracted and presold.
so if you dont have scale, cut their multiple by a third.
if you arent doubling, cut it in third again.
if you dont have guarenteed revenue, again cut it.
if nvidia trades at 24x, you are worth less than 7x NET INCOME
This is the reality that public market investors are demanding.
Oura is an amazing business.
data play, subscription, lots of pros.
but it aint nvidia.
The
$OURA ring stock is trading at $50 currently on perpetuals.
Some people are saying this is not a wearable fad like Fitbit.
Others are saying TOTAL wearable fad.
Do we buy this stock fam?