Statistical Data Analyst , Statistical programmer, Applied statistician & Bio-statistician. ⛔No Private messages 👉 🚫📩❌.
Irbid city Of Jordan
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How would you rate the accuracy and practical usefulness of my long-range forecasts for Autumn 2025 and Winter 2026 so far?
(Rating Scale):
(5🌟) Excellent (Highly accurate & very useful)
(4🌟) Good (Mostly accurate & useful)
(3🌟) Moderate (Mixed performance)
(2🌟) Low accuracy (Limited usefulness )
(1🌟) Not useful / Missed expectations
Your feedback helps refine future outlooks and improve regional targeting.
Please also mention your country/region in the comments so I can prioritize areas of highest relevance and usability .
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Historical Torrential Rainfall events-west mediterranean
Meet the Acqua Alta archives of Venice, Barcelona, and Valencia. They contain countless events similar to the extreme rainfall events that hit Catalonia and Albacete I have been able to uncover and use as prior probabilities when assessing their likelihood of recurrence during the current season and with a surgical-like precison weeks ahead of their occurrence .
I do not blame scientists for their publications, but when analyses focus primarily on short instrumental records while overlooking much longer historical time series, we can easily end up calling events “unprecedented” simply because they are absent or even rare from a 78-year record.
Focusing on the structural anticedents and /ingredients of those events can help us reproduce their recurrence propensities, simply probability. Just by zooming in on the proper specifocation and letting them decide whether an event will occur or not, dismissing simulation models because they fail to reproduce fine binary characterics using a short time window archive with low frequency /density of similarl events. Its not always about complex math!
Looking at only a few decades can lead us into a statistical wall of “unprecedented” events. The longer historical record—spanning roughly 430 years in some archives—shows that many supposedly exceptional rainfall events have occurred many times before.
Not Medicanes? Or even tropical-like Medistorms with no discernible isobaric eye or destructive winds ? Not seen before?
So what they're?! And why they have happened near us just now?
Those fast convective rainfall events over the Balearic Sea and eastern Spain were forecast several times, weeks in advance, based on historical analogues and their prior probabilities.
Irene, you may hate me for saying this 😄, but these events are not unprecedented. Similar Mediterranean convective and flooding episodes have occurred repeatedly throughout the historical record, with some records extending back several centuries.
That is precisely why I use statistical downscaling and analog ensembles: historical recurrence provides the prior probability, while the current atmospheric and oceanic conditions determine how that pattern may materialize.
I shared several maps weeks ago showing elevated storm risk for Valencia and Barcelona and the adjacent regions in the Balearic sea . The current developments are broadly consistent with those earlier signals. Those analyses/forecasts were based on the Alta-aqua records of Barcelona , Venice and Valencia back to 400 years ago, without those records I would not have been able to reproduce any maps of those. In short : those events are recurrent, predictable and can be anticipated anytime when proper climatic and statistical specifications are used and months ahead.
With all due Respect.
Forecasts from September
x.lingyaoai.com/Statisticizer/status/2…
x.lingyaoai.com/Statisticizer/status/2…
x.lingyaoai.com/Statisticizer/status/2…
when these events had started to materialize on 2nd-3rd October
x.lingyaoai.com/Statisticizer/status/2…
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🌀What About Atlantic Storms in November?
Many friends and followers from North Africa and Iberia have asked whether the current weather regime is likely to continue, with rainfall remaining strongly stationary and influenced by convective activity over the Mediterranean, and how likely true Atlantic storms may become thereafter during autumn.
The attached cards examine the period from 29 October to 6 November. The resulting 20-year analog ensemble suggests the possibility of Atlantic storm activity developing in early November.
This pattern may coincide with a clearly negative North Atlantic Oscillation (−NAO) and a positive East Atlantic–West Russia (EA–WR) pattern, potentially favoring a more southerly Atlantic storm track. Such a configuration could increase the potential for storm systems to affect the Bay of Biscay and Iberia, while also allowing deeper troughs to extend toward the western and Mediterranean.
Moreover, this pattern is consistent with another scenario I have been monitoring and forecasting since June using long-range analog ensembles: the possibility of an elongated polar vortex accompanied by an unusually early November Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event.
If this scenario materializes, the resulting weakening or disruption of the polar vortex could increase the potential for cold-air intrusions toward lower latitudes, including the Mediterranean region.
A similar scenario was identified in my long-range analysis during the 2025–26 season, and it was subsequently followed by early-season snowfall across several high-altitude areas of the western Mediterranean. The below link shows the SSW possible scenario forecasts (x.lingyaoai.com/Statisticizer/status/2… )
At this stage, however, this remains a probabilistic analog-based assessment, not a deterministic forecast. The evolution of the Atlantic circulation, NAO/EA–WR configuration, stratospheric conditions, and Mediterranean thermodynamic environment will determine how this pattern ultimately develops.
Warmest regards
Mohammad Alkhateeb | @Statisticizer
Applied Statistician & Statistical Analog Forecaster
Hodhodata — Statistical Analog Modeling & Downscaling hodhodata.com
Good afternoon!
There is a tentative outlook I made back in June and August for a possible early polar sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event during the first decade of November, or alternatively, a possible polar-vortex elongation (stretching) event that could rather unusually materialize in early November. This stretch/split associated with SSW is a signal for weakened polar vortex, hence greater odds of cold air masses moving southward toward lower latitudes ( our regions) .
If such an event does materialize in early November, it would be considered a very rare and unusual occurrence. Whether it could lead to meaningful tropospheric coupling, however, would depend heavily on how the event develops and, in particular, on whether a substantial reversal of the zonal winds at 60°N occurs.
Every SSW event is unique, and each can produce a different tropospheric imprint. As far as I can remember from the analogs and patterns I examined, such an event could potentially have a favorable influence on the Western Mediterranean, particularly by increasing the potential for cold-air intrusions, Atlantic storm activity, and cyclogenesis.
At this stage, however, I would consider this a tentative signal rather than a forecast, and its significance will depend strongly on how the stratospheric circulation evolves in early November.
Below links contain those forecasts and follow up posts I have made for weakened possible Polar Vortex this year> This remains a probability nevertheless.
JUNE early signal detection
x.lingyaoai.com/Statisticizer/status/2…
AUGUST updated forecast for validation
x.lingyaoai.com/Statisticizer/status/2…
SEPTEMBER Follow up.
x.lingyaoai.com/Statisticizer/status/2…
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The associated possible rainfall pattern with those potential southern centered Atlantic possible storms early November posted on Javier's page.
Thank you, Javier for your input on the expected rainfall, and it is true these storms may be associated with/ bring descent rainfall to the southern and western sides of the peninsula as well as central regions .
I am hoping these forecasts will succeed as their previous ones!
🙏🙏
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More maps for the first decade of November (1-7 November) . Note the deep low systems Northern Iberia -representing a typical Biscay Gulf Low Pressure system with negative eastern NAO oscillation .
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#الشرق_الاوسط توقعات تساقط الثلوج خلال الشتاء المقبل ❄️
باستخدام تطبيقات إحصائية وتقنيات الذكاء الاصطناعي، تم حساب احتمالات تساقط الثلوج خلال أشهر الشتاء. والمرفق يوضح التوقعات الأولية لشهر يناير، حيث تظهر باللون الأحمر المناطق التي تشير الحسابات إلى احتمالات لتساقط الثلوج فيها.
تظهر من هذه التوقعات فرص محتملة لتساقط الثلوج فوق مناطق من بلاد الشام والعراق وشمال السعودية عبر شهري ديسمبر 2026 و يناير 2027 و بشكل غير معتاد لديسمبر وسط الجزيرة العربية و اجزاء من العراق ، وصولًا إلى منطقة #حائل في عمق الجزيرة العربية ، إضافة إلى أجزاء واسعة من إيران وأفغانستان .
الغريب في هذه التوقعات هو احتمالات تساقط الثلوج من اي شكل و نوع ضمن اراضي الجزيرة العربية و جنوب العراق و شرقه مقارنة بالعروض الاعلى جغرافيا .
بشهر فيبراير ( انشر عنه لاحقا ) يوجد ايضا فرص لتساقطات ثلجية على بعض مناطق سلاسل الجبال العالية ضمن بوادي بلاد الشام ايضا تتركز بشكل رئيسي ضمن سوريا و الاردن و فلسطين لبعض السلاسل الجبلية و تظهر بشكل استثنائي بمناطق تقريبا غير معتادة مؤخرا-اخر 20 عام - انشر عنها لاحقا ان شاء الله .
ومن المهم التأكيد أن هذه الخرائط تعبّر عن «احتمالات تساقط الثلوج» بغض النظر عن كمياتها أو شكلها أو مدى تراكمها، وبالتالي فهي لا تمثل توقعًا حتميًا لحدوث تراكمات ثلجية. وإنما هي ناتج حساب احتمالي تراكمي يأخذ في الاعتبار ظروف الموسم والأنماط المناخية السائدة.
وبناءً على الإشارة الحالية، تظهر احتمالية مرتفعة نسبيًا لتساقط الثلوج خلال شهر يناير المقبل فوق أجزاء من بلاد الشام، وخصوصًا جنوب ووسط الأردن، إضافة إلى مناطق من جنوب شرق سوريا، وأجزاء من شمال سوريا والعراق، وكذلك البادية الشمالية في السعودية.
هذه قراءة احتمالية أولية، وقد تتغير مع تطور الظروف الجوية والمناخية واقتراب الفترة المستهدفة.
و الله اعلم .
فضلا نشر التوقعات♻️نظرا لانها مبنية بطرق حسابية و حصرية . تقوم بعض الحسابات مع الاسف بنسب التوقع لنفسها عبر اختلاس التحليل و ترويج فكرة امتلاكها لقبة مناخية و قدرة على تغيير المناخ و هذا نوع من الهذيان و التعالي على الله سبحانه و تعالى لانه هو خالق الرياح و السحب و مسيرهما انتشر هذا الهذيان عبر وسط السوشال ميديا مؤخرا خصوصا في بعض الدول العربية و تركيا .
مع التحية .
تم التحليل و بناء الاحتماليات من قبل /
خبير الاحصاء الرئيسي في موقع الهدهد للبحوث و خدمات التحليل الاحصائي , السيد محمد الخطيب .
hodhodata.com
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🚨❄️ #FollowUp Numerical Weather Prediction Validation of the Snowfall Signal- late October.
Countries: 🇪🇸🇵🇹🇲🇦🇩🇿🇮🇹 🇬🇧🇺🇦
Less than 24 hours after releasing my statistical analog forecast for October snowfall risk, the American GFS model (00Z run) is already showing early, tentative snowfall signals across the #Pyrenees and other northern #Spain mountain ranges.
This early convergence between the AI/statistical forecast and GFS guidance provides encouraging support for the forecast signal and suggests elevated odds of an early autumnal snowpack across parts of Spain and potentially portions of North Africa.
🌊 The Mediterranean Sea surface temperature (SST)-particularly anomalously warm SST this autumn -may play an important physical preconditioning role in determining where snowfall develops and how much snowfalls, especially across inland, high-elevation areas and in relation to how far snowfall extends from the Mediterranean coastline.
In general, warmer Mediterranean SST can enhance moisture availability and modify lower-tropospheric instability and atmospheric processes, potentially favoring heavier and more persistent snowfall over higher inland mountain ranges farther from the coast when the synoptic conditions are supportive. Conversely, colder SST anomalies can reduce this moisture contribution and, under comparable atmospheric conditions, favor a lower snowpack and a snowline more closely confined to coastal or lower-elevation mountain ranges.
This physical relationship is not necessarily uniform in every event, but it provides an important preconditioning signal across Mediterranean regions—including Spain, Italy, North Africa, and the eastern Mediterranean/Levant.
In my forecast, I therefore incorporated Mediterranean SST not simply as a statistical predictor, but as a physical preconditioning factor to help estimate snowfall probability and its potential spatial distribution—including its relationship with coastline distance, elevation, and broader climatic teleconnections.
This is a compelling example of how early statistical and analog signals can potentially foreshadow—and subsequently converge with—deterministic NWP guidance- when specified and computed professionally however.
📈🏔️♻️ Share the wisdom & share learning!
Warmest regards,
Mr. M. @Statisticizer 🇯🇴
🏔️❄️☃️ Late October Early Snowfall Risk: North Africa & Iberian Peninsula .
This interim analog-based analysis uses an 18-season analog ensemble to evaluate late October atmospheric patterns. The statistical signal highlights a tentative risk for early autumnal snowfall across high mountain elevations in North Africa and the Iberian Peninsula between October 20–31.
📍 High-Risk Target Regions
🇲🇦 Moroccan High Atlas: High-elevation peaks in the Northern Atlas range closer to the Mediterranean coast.
🇮🇹🇨🇭Western & Central Italian Alps (Aosta Valley, Piedmont, Lombardy) and parts of the Balkans.
🇪🇸 🇵🇹 Iberian Peninsula:
Southeastern Mountain Ranges (e.g., Sierra Nevada).
Northern Portugal & NW Spain (high mountain ranges).
Northeastern Spain & Pyrenees (bordering France).
💡 Key Methodological Notes
Probability vs. Accumulation: The red-highlighted areas represent the likelihood (probability) of a snowfall event occurring, regardless of the physical accumulation depth or exact snowline or even the amounts of snow ( less or more) .
Thermal & Dynamics Support: Supplementary 850 hPa temperature and atmospheric thickness index analyses show a clear Rossby wave troughing event during the final decade of October, driving anomalous cold air southward over the Balearic Sea, North Africa, and parts of Southern Europe.
Probabilistic Outlook: This model output is probabilistic, not deterministic. It highlights elevated odds rather than guaranteed snowfall totals and can not specify the exact amounts for now .
⚠️ Follow-up Recommendation: Please cross-reference and track this setup using high-resolution deterministic numerical weather prediction (NWP) models (such as ECMWF and GFS) as we approach mid-month.
Warm regards.
___
By Mr. M @Statisticizer
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🏔️❄️☃️ Late October Early Snowfall Risk: North Africa & Iberian Peninsula .
This interim analog-based analysis uses an 18-season analog ensemble to evaluate late October atmospheric patterns. The statistical signal highlights a tentative risk for early autumnal snowfall across high mountain elevations in North Africa and the Iberian Peninsula between October 20–31.
📍 High-Risk Target Regions
🇲🇦 Moroccan High Atlas: High-elevation peaks in the Northern Atlas range closer to the Mediterranean coast.
🇮🇹🇨🇭Western & Central Italian Alps (Aosta Valley, Piedmont, Lombardy) and parts of the Balkans.
🇪🇸 🇵🇹 Iberian Peninsula:
Southeastern Mountain Ranges (e.g., Sierra Nevada).
Northern Portugal & NW Spain (high mountain ranges).
Northeastern Spain & Pyrenees (bordering France).
💡 Key Methodological Notes
Probability vs. Accumulation: The red-highlighted areas represent the likelihood (probability) of a snowfall event occurring, regardless of the physical accumulation depth or exact snowline or even the amounts of snow ( less or more) .
Thermal & Dynamics Support: Supplementary 850 hPa temperature and atmospheric thickness index analyses show a clear Rossby wave troughing event during the final decade of October, driving anomalous cold air southward over the Balearic Sea, North Africa, and parts of Southern Europe.
Probabilistic Outlook: This model output is probabilistic, not deterministic. It highlights elevated odds rather than guaranteed snowfall totals and can not specify the exact amounts for now .
⚠️ Follow-up Recommendation: Please cross-reference and track this setup using high-resolution deterministic numerical weather prediction (NWP) models (such as ECMWF and GFS) as we approach mid-month.
Warm regards.
___
By Mr. M @Statisticizer
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The current GFS model runs suggest that there is still a possibility of seeing snowfall across parts of the central Mediterranean and Morocco. As of today’s runs, the snowline is approaching Corsica and Sardinia and vast parts of Balkans and Alps .
Hopefully, the coming model runs will show further southward and westward progression, potentially bringing the snowfall signal closer to the Pyrenees and parts of North Africa. ❄️
Let’s see how the pattern evolves over the next few days.
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🔴🚨 Euro-Mediterranean Flood Risk Forecast ( 10-24 October) .
The attached four cards show the predicted normalized rainfall probabilities for the period 10–24 October.
For this analysis, I am trialing, for the first time, data from a new reanalysis service, Pyreweather (pyreweather.org) , combined with statistical downscaling and an analog ensemble approach. The analog ensemble consists of 18 modern-era seasons since 1950 that may approximate the current season in terms of multivariate and structural climatic characteristics.
The attached cards cover the following periods:
• 10–14 October
• 15–18 October
• 18–20 October
• 21–24 October
In the cards, the 🔴 red-highlighted regions enclosed within ⬛️black boxes indicate areas estimated to have an elevated potential for episodes of torrential rainfall when considering the analog predicted normalized rainfall estimates for the given periods . Such events may generate substantial surface-water runoff and increase the potential for flooding, particularly in low-lying areas, valleys, river basins, and locations with inadequate rainfall drainage.
These are probabilistic model estimates rather than deterministic predictions, and the highlighted areas should therefore be interpreted as regions of potentially elevated rainfall and runoff risk rather than as precise forecasts of specific flood events. Use these forecasts along your local meteorological and numerical weather prediction models to anticipate flood risk.
NB/ The normalized propensities of rainfall are preferred here to identify the regions with maximum predicted rainfall cumulative rainfall within the specified periods .
Hoping this prediction will succeed and be useful for people in affected regions ( nominated in the comments) .
🔴🙏Kindly share those forecasts ♻️, early warnings save lives and porterty!
warmest regards
Mr. M. @Statisticizer
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Previous -related- forecast for storms/cyclonic activity in the mediterranean during second and third decades of October ⏬
🌊 Mediterranean Long-Range Analog Weather Prediction — October ( second half)
By studying the synoptic configuration and recurring severe weather patterns associated with low-pressure atmospheric systems, including troughs and cut-off lows, the analog analysis suggests an increasingly active Mediterranean pattern during the middle and latter parts of October.
During the second decade of October, the signal points toward a potential increase in storm intensity and wind activity across the Ionian Sea and central Mediterranean, with a greater frequency of Balkan-origin lows potentially affecting southern Italy, Greece, Libya, Tunisia, the Balkans, and parts of Anatolia with more convective rainfall and episodes of torrential rain and wind gusts.
As the month progresses, however, the storm track may gradually shift westward. Between approximately 17–28 October, the main focus of Mediterranean instability may migrate toward the Sardinian and Tyrrhenian Seas, where the analogs indicate a potentially higher risk of episodes of heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, and severe wind gusts.
This evolving pattern could also extend toward the Balearic Sea and parts of North Africa, with periods of unsettled and potentially severe weather affecting eastern and southern Iberia and Balearic sea.
Toward the final decade of October and into early November, the signal also suggests an increasing influence from Atlantic systems, together with episodes of stronger northerly flow affecting parts of the Mediterranean and European peninsula.
⚠️ These are long-range statistical analog signals rather than deterministic forecasts. The exact location, timing, and intensity of individual storms will depend on the evolution of the synoptic pattern closer to the event.
🌊 Mediterranean October -Summary
The analogs suggest an increasingly active Mediterranean during the second half of October, initially favoring the Ionian and central Mediterranean, with Balkan lows potentially affecting Greece, southern Italy, North Africa, the Balkans, and Anatolia.
From 17–28 October, activity may gradually shift westward toward the Sardinian, Tyrrhenian, and Balearic Seas, increasing the risk of heavy rain, thunderstorms, and strong winds across parts of the western Mediterranean and Iberia.
Toward late October–early November, Atlantic influence and stronger northerly flow may increase.
The fourth map represents a possible cyclonic activity in the Balearic sea because it is accompanied by strong wind gusts with hurricane-like structure, and this remains a possibility-as of now.
⚠️These are Long-range probabilistic statistical analog weather signal predictions—not a deterministic forecast.
NB/ The maps are ordered chronologically ( left top-right top, left bottom-right bottom) each map representing a moving 4-day average predicted 500hpa anomalies between 15-29 October.
Modelling By Mr. M. @Statisticizer
With support from Aviatech-MENA | Poultry Farm Equipment & Integrated Farming Solutions.
🌐aviatech-mena.com/indexen.as…
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If anyone has premium access to Cirrus PyRe Weather and would be willing to share access with me, I would be extremely grateful.
pyreweather.org/pricing/
I’m currently unable to afford a premium subscription, but I have found the platform to have valuable potential as a reanalysis and climate-analysis tool, particularly for my ongoing statistical analogous downscaling and analog-ensemble work.
If someone already has a subscription and is comfortable sharing access for the time being , even temporarily, it would be highly appreciated and would help me considerably with this research.
Thank you very much in advance to anyone who can help. 🙏
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Regions of higher Risk for floods and /torrential rainfall events:
1️⃣ Period: October 10–14 🌊
🇪🇸 Southwestern Europe (Gulf of Cádiz & Strait of Gibraltar): A pronounced rainfall anomaly is centered over southwestern Spain and southern Portugal, with potential for localized urban runoff and rising river levels.
🇫🇷 Southeastern France (Gulf of Lion / Côte d'Azur): A marked rainfall increase is indicated along southeastern France, potentially contributing to rapid mountain runoff and flooding in valleys and coastal watersheds.
🇹🇳 🇩🇿 Central Maghreb (Northern Tunisia & Northeastern Algeria): An early enhanced moisture axis is indicated across coastal areas.
🇬🇷 🇹🇷 Aegean Basin, Southern Greece & Crete: A moderate-to-strong rainfall anomaly is centered over the region, suggesting the potential for convective storm activity across the Aegean Basin.
2️⃣ Period: October 15–18 🌧️
🇮🇪 🇬🇧 British Isles (Ireland & Western UK): A broad area of enhanced rainfall is indicated across Ireland and northern Britain, consistent with the potential passage of low-pressure systems.
🇩🇪 🇵🇱 Central Europe (Germany, Western Poland & Czechia): A pronounced rainfall increase extends across parts of Central Europe, including several low-lying river corridors.
🇹🇳 Eastern Algeria & Northern Tunisia: A particularly intense localized rainfall signal is indicated, raising the potential for flash flooding in wadis and areas with limited drainage capacity.
🇷🇴 🇺🇦 Carpathians & Eastern Europe: Secondary areas of elevated rainfall potential emerge across Romania, Moldova, and Ukraine.
🇲🇦 Northwestern Africa (Morocco): Concentrated rainfall anomalies appear across northern coastal and mountainous areas.
3️⃣ Period: October 18–20 ⚡
🇪🇸 🇵🇹 Iberian Peninsula (Central Spain & Portugal): A broad area of enhanced rainfall extends across inland basins and mountainous terrain, potentially producing significant surface runoff.
🇫🇷 Western France: A widespread rainfall anomaly extends across coastal and central parts of western France.
🇷🇺 🇧🇾 Eastern Europe & Western Russia: A substantial anomalous precipitation band appears to shift eastward across Belarus, eastern Europe, and western Russia.
🇹🇷 🇸🇾 🇱🇧 Eastern Mediterranean & Anatolia: An enhanced moisture plume extends across southern Türkiye, Cyprus, and the northern Levantine coast, with potential for locally heavy rainfall.
4️⃣ Period: October 21–24 ⚠️
🇹🇳 🇩🇿 North Africa (Coastal Algeria & Northern Tunisia): The strongest normalized rainfall anomaly in this composite sequence is concentrated across parts of coastal Algeria and northern Tunisia, indicating elevated potential for heavy rainfall and flash flooding.
🇮🇹 🇭🇷 Adriatic Basin, Northern Italy & Western Balkans: A significant precipitation cluster extends across the Po Valley, Adriatic coastline, and Dinaric Alps.
🇬🇷 🇹🇷 Aegean Sea & Western Türkiye: An enhanced rainfall corridor extends along western Anatolia and surrounding watersheds, with potential for locally intense precipitation.
🇳🇴 🇸🇪 Southern Scandinavia & North Sea Coastlines: Enhanced precipitation is indicated across parts of southern Scandinavia and the North Sea coastal region, potentially associated with strong moisture transport.
🇷🇺 Western Russia / Upper Volga: A persistent precipitation band remains evident across parts of western Russia and the Upper Volga region.
⚠️ Hydrological Risk Notice
The highlighted areas represent model-estimated regions of elevated rainfall potential, rather than deterministic predictions of specific flood events. Where heavy rainfall occurs, the greatest hydrological impacts could include flash flooding, wadi and river overflow, debris-laden runoff, and urban waterlogging, particularly in low-lying areas, valleys, river basins, and locations with poor drainage.
Short-range monitoring of convective development and rainfall intensity will remain important as these periods approach.
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