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1/ An 80% win rate can still make you a losing trader.
Sounds stupid until you look at the math.
Most traders spend way too much time trying to be right more often.
That’s not really the game🧵
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9/ Take your last month of trades and actually calculate it.
Not from memory.
Not from the trades you remember.
All of them.
Win rate.
Avg win.
Avg loss.
EV per trade.
Average R.
Largest loss.
The ugly number is usually pretty obvious once you see it.
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11/ This is also why win rate screenshots don’t impress me much.
70%, 80%, 90% win rate tells you almost nothing by itself.
Show me:
avg win
avg loss
risk per trade
sample size
Then we can actually talk.
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7/ A good question before every trade:
If I took this exact setup 100 times, with the exact same risk rules, would I want all 100?
That’s a much better question than:
“Do I think BTC goes up from here?”
One is process.
The other is opinion.
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6/ BTC is especially good at exposing this.
You long.
The level that justified the trade gets lost.
Trade is invalid.
That should be the end of it.
Instead, people start rewriting the thesis after they’re already underwater.
That’s usually where the real damage starts.
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1/ An 80% win rate can still make you a losing trader.
Sounds stupid until you look at the math.
Most traders spend way too much time trying to be right more often.
That’s not really the game🧵
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4/ Now change one thing.
Not the setup.
Not the entry.
Not the indicator.
Just the size of the loss.
Trader B:
60% win rate
Avg win: +$100
Avg loss: -$100
EV: (0.6 × 100) - (0.4 × 100) = +$20/trade
Lower win rate.
Better trader.
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3/ Simple example.
Start with a $1,000 account.
Trader A:
80% win rate
Avg win: +$100
Avg loss: -$1,000
EV: (0.8 × 100) - (0.2 × 1000) = -$120/trade
He’s “right” 8 times out of 10 and still getting destroyed.
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2/ The only equation you need:
EV = (Win rate × Avg winner) - (Loss rate × Avg loser)
That’s expectancy.
If the number is positive, you have something worth repeating.
If it’s negative, a high win rate is just making the problem harder to notice.
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bitcoin:native
Leverage is getting pretty stretched here.
Range is still being defended and bulls are trying to force continuation, but most of the aggression is coming from perps.
Spot CVD, which was supporting the move earlier, has started to diverge intraday.
Plan is simple: wait and let the market show its hand.
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$BTC
BTC had a very bullish quarterly close.
As I said before, that doesn’t necessarily mean Q4 will be bullish. If anything, it gives us a clearer read on the broader macro trend.
Current setup:
We’re still stuck in this range
Bulls kicked off the new month and quarter with spot buying, as usual
I expect the real moves to start next week
I don’t care which way price goes.
I’ll simply trade the price action using my usual playbook.
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If you're not already using @openmarket_xyz , now's the perfect time to check out the platform.
I've been using their service since before the rebrand. They always roll out new features right on time.
Over the past couple of days, they've opened up a lot of features for free subscription.
I hope this is permanent and not just to attract an audience.
Overall, I wish the guys success! They've done a lot to be one of the best in this industry.
We just made 25,000 historical bars free for everyone on OpenMarket. No more lookback limits.
That’s 5× the history available on TradingView’s free plan.
On a market trading around the clock, you can scroll back ~87 days on a 5-minute chart or ~2.85 years on an hourly chart. Daily is effectively uncapped.
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5,076
Until the end of the day, the market will try to hold the quarterly close for $BTC above the previous quarter's high.
That doesn't mean the last quarter of the year will be bullish.
But it does mean a paradigm shift from bear to bull, and probably an accumulation phase before the next strong move.
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Soon the moment will come for a real test of $BTC's resilience to inflation and a stock market crash
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