Real estate development, investor, weather enthusiast and family man. My only account has a blue checkmark. Beware of impersonators. No investment advice!
NY/ NJ
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THREAD // How I Invest
1. Successful Investing starts with Education
2. Psychology of Trading & General Rules
3. Essentials of Fundamental Analysis
4. Master Technical Analysis
5. Screening for Stocks
6. Making a Watchlist
7. Money Management
8. Diversification of Accounts
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I know people on here who have been loading up the whole way down.
Massive losses in their portfolio.
$NKE
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$VIST - $66.50, sitting on the 200d ma, building a sideways base since March.
$VIST - $74.71, has been disclosed as Peter Thiel's largest holding in his hedge fund.
The technicals and fundamentals look solid!
A clear stage 2 up-trend above the 200d ma with earnings and revenue growing nicely QoQ and YoY.
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Less than half of all stocks on the $SPX are now trading above their own 200d ma.
Clear divergence between the handful of leaders and the S&P 500 breadth.
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Only 31.58% of all stocks on the $COMPQ are trading above their own 50d ma.
The divergence is quite obvious on the chart = index holding near highs while breadth weakens.
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Only 25.4% of all stocks on the $SPX are trading above their own 50d ma.
Quite a divergence from the market's action, being held up by a handful of leaders.
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The $SPX 10d ma New High - New Low (NHNL) differential keeps trending lower, below zero here in September.
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$ZG is a textbook example of why I don't buy Stage 4 stocks.
- The trend is clearly down
- Rallies continue to fail
- The recent bear flag was another warning, down 25% to new lows the past 6 weeks
Real estate & housing stocks haven't had a favorable environment with mortgage rates staying above 6%.
Lesson: a company can post decent numbers and still be a terrible stock. Know your technicals!
Down 67% from highs! A 67% decline requires a 203% gain just to break even. Stay away from laggards as they make you underperform everything.
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Stage 4's can rock you quickly, $RBLX down 20% the past 5 trading days.
70% off highs.
Bear flag action.
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Avoid following the bag holders on X.
A bag holder is an investor who buys a stock near its peak or as it enters a stage 4 and continues to hold it as the price declines significantly.
Bag holdering frequently results from common cognitive biases, particularly the reluctance to acknowledge mistakes. In behavioural finance, the disposition effect describes the tendency to sell winning positions prematurely while retaining losing ones, a pattern associated with loss aversion and the expectation of eventual recovery.
Bag holders keep adding to the position mainly to “lower their average”, throwing good money after bad.
Own leaders, not laggards!
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