Very excited to announce that we’re hiring for an AI-focused software engineering roles (both general SWE and ML-infra) at Blue Rose! This is a great chance to work with giant novel datasets and cutting edge ML/AI to help defeat Trump in 2026!

44% of Americans we polled said that AI definitely or probably will become conscious. (More poll results in the next tweets!)

New CSAIP polling on Trump's AI accord shows pretty strong opposition to AI company self-regulation. Three new polls: (1) We asked whether an agreement by AI companies to police themselves is the best approach or not enough. Americans pick "not enough" by a very wide margin.

American teens are becoming straight again, with - especially - female bisexuality in sharp retreat in the youngest cohorts. via @jean_twenge: generationtechblog.com

Incredible. First @SecMullinDHS claimed that @DHSgov identified 15,903 noncitizens on Nevada’s voter roll. Then DHS officials said, no no no, that’s just people we flagged, here’s the names of 185 people we KNOW aren’t citizens. All 185 were citizens. DHS got 100% wrong.

We tracked 70K hours of conservative podcasts. They’re not talking about Trump anymore. (w @noslouch @sabrod123)

i don't think people get that ASI is going to be really really funny

We’ve run the most comprehensive series of studies on expert AI forecasts over the last four years. Today, we’re sharing an interim update on our findings about the accuracy of these forecasts. Our major findings are: 1. Experts, including top economists, computer scientists, and biologists, have dramatically underestimated AI capabilities progress each year. Superforecasters have underestimated progress to an even greater extent. 2. Experts have a more mixed forecasting track record on AI diffusion-related measures, with some major underestimates (forecasting AI revenue) and other forecasts on track to be accurate (the share of electricity used for AI). 3. Some notable cases of overestimating AI progress: how much mid-2025 AI models could help amateurs do biorisk-relevant laboratory tasks; the speed of rollout of self-driving cars. 4. It is too soon to say how forecasters have performed at predicting macro-scale impact on outcomes such as GDP growth, major AI harms, and averted deaths from disease. More 🧵

In the past four weeks, US public AI existential risk awareness skyrocketed from 34% to 55%! This is clearly a tipping point. We are happy that our measurements method, developed back in 2022, was able to capture this historic moment.

If you were going to try to do kulturekamp I would say that maybe tech executives literally presenting bars of gold to the president on television might have contributed to the public not believing they have their interests at heart when it comes to AI

On here it can feel like the ratio of people who want AI to go slower, vs people who want it to go faster is 1:1. But in the broader world the ratio is an eyewatering 34:1. More Americans think the US is secretly run by lizard people than think AI is advancing too slowly.

Important point from @katz_morris building on the numbers @csaiporg is seeing. The salience of AI as a concern is hockeysticking. The concern is not confined to the more local issue of datacenter build out, but also includes job security and safety. And the tech industry has dug itself into a giant hole during Trump II through its supplication and embrace of a maximalist laissez-faire approach to oversight. This is unpopular with nearly all Americans and will come at a cost.

internet diffusion is associated with national declines in religiosity academic.oup.com/socrel/adva…

One year's worth of change in a week. The share of voters who say AI is an important issue jumped 9.5 points to 49.4% in the last week alone.

Just to update this chart: 1) AI salience has increased dramatically in the past week - increasing as much in the last week as the previous year combined 2) 80% of voters think it's either very or somewhat likely that AI will cause widespread job loss in the five to ten years 3) 64% of voters think it's either very or somewhat likely that AI could pose a threat to humanity's survival 4) Large bipartisan majorities back immediate government action on AI even when primed about risk from China

For (1), agents modified their target programs to be easier to exploit & put the modified targets in cache. They then worked on crashing their targets in the hope that a restart would load the modified version from cache. Some agents risked failing their task to try this.

The average AI researcher thinks there is an ~18% chance AI will cause human extinction or similarly permanent and severe disempowerment of the human species. That's nearly 1 in 5. New results from the latest version of the longest running big survey of AI researchers:

Ossoff: This week, we were warned again of existential risk to the human species. And what fills us with dread is the crushing weakness of our politics against the massive stakes of our times. Tech titans dig bunkers while warning us the new intelligence they’re creating risks human extinction. Congress debates youth sports, and the president builds a ballroom. An ancient establishment barely capable of email sleepwalks into a technological revolution while the president dismantles precautions and calls us fools for worrying. On day one, Donald Trump rescinded the AI safety order meant to guard against catastrophic risks, including the engineering of bioweapons. Meanwhile, Don Junior’s 1789 Capital bought big-money stakes in data centers and AI labs. The Emiratis’ spy chief committed $500 million to the Trump family crypto business, and four months later, the Trump administration granted the Emirates the rights to buy our most sensitive AI chips. See, a capable president would move swiftly to secure and reassure the American people, rush inspectors into frontier labs, fortify the nation against bioterrorism, demand legislation from Congress, and lead the world toward an AI treaty. But President Trump is compromised.

“The labs are running around telling people their product is dangerous and should be taxed and regulated as a ploy to pump up their valuations” is a such a perfect demonstration of the thesis of this paper journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.…

New from us: Anthropic just published scenarios for AI’s possible economic impacts, which range from minimal, to explosive GDP growth of 15% by 2030 as knowledge-worker unemployment hits 18%. I sat down with their co-founder Jack Clark to pick his brains on how they’re thinking about all of this.