Recently there was a story reporting on OpenAI’s form 5500 (the public disclosure about our 401k program) which some people used to make observations with the flavor of “see, they don’t REALLY believe in advanced AI, or else they wouldn’t be saving money!”
I contribute to my openai-sponsored 401k as well as other conventional retirement-savings vehicles. I cannot speak for any of my colleagues, but I can tell you why I personally make these contributions.
First there is the reality that the whole “advanced AI means money has no value, either because we live in utopia and everything’s free or because we are all dead” are extreme ends of the spectrum of possible futures. It is true that things of this flavor, or other scenarios similar enough to this that one’s retirement savings don’t matter, *are* possible outcomes. But also there are many other plausible transformative futures, and I’m enough of a Burkean that I’m not going to jettison some of the oldest financial wisdom humans have developed (save money!) over my own projections about the future. It wouldn’t be responsible to my family, for one thing.
Family is an important part of my thinking on this topic for other reasons. In some sense, I want to live in a future where having set aside money for retirement is still prudent. That would mean the future, however transformed, is still familiar enough. A world where it truly doesn’t matter whether uou save may be a lovely place to live (or it may not), but regardless of its desirability it is a world SO transformed that, again, my Burkean prior kicks in.
I *hope* the future is at least vaguely familiar to me as I exist today. I hope that at least some of the habits I have learned still matter in that future, and that some of the wisdom I have learned holds true. I hope that not just for me but for my son and future children. I do a lot of things out of this hope, and one small example is that I contribute to a 401k.
A lot of people made their sneering observations about OAI employees’ 401k contributions, saying “derp de doo, revealed preferences, they don’t believe what they say.” That’s fine. Maybe that IS why some frontier AI company staff save for retirement. But I’d characterize my mentality about savings more as an article of faith at this point, and my biweekly 401k contributions as tiny prayers for a vaguely recognizable future.
I'm 40 and struggle with retirement planning in the singularity, even if we stay on this pace without RSI.
Do life extension drugs require 40+ years of savings rather than the standard 25? Will huge GDP growth mean a 3-4% withdraw rate is too conservative? Should I stop saving or double down?
The S&P has done 15% average over the last decade, well above the long term 10% returns. Is that the new normal to plan for, or are we going to rip even higher and start to see 20%+ averages over the 2026-2050 time period as new medicine and technology arrives at break neck speed?
Or will AI create so much job loss that despite rapidly advancing technology things will flatten out?
If you're max bullish there's a point where you hit an amount of savings that continuing to save actually doesn't make any sense and you may as well spend it now.
You kind of have to hope for the best but plan for the worst and it's actually pretty confusing