head of strategic futures @openai | views mine, and mine alone

Washington, DC
As promised, and with thanks to @jachiam0 for his great tweet that inspired me to finally put the finishing touches on this: This week, on Hyperdimensional: the impending rise of ownerless agents--AIs that are independent economic actors--and what to do about it.
I've had an essay on this same topic ready to go for a while, almost time to ship. Look for it on Hyperdimensional soon!
28
36
266
147,188
Dean W. Ball retweeted
this chart should be the death knell for the 2010s tech left whose theology compelled them to argue that Uber was some sort of labor law arbitrage that created no productivity benefits. the truth is that it created a far larger market than taxis ever had. the industrialists win
The age of the taxi is over. The age of the ride-hail passenger carrier is now.
82
161
2,245
85,108
guess I’m getting fired from the Effective Altruism Conspiracy
16
2
182
9,216
I do believe I could sit by the sea and eat cooked-alive decapods and drink albarino for at least five consecutive hours
1
11
2,580
openai staffer FIRED by WOKE EA WIZARDS after posting picture of DECAPITATED DECAPODS
34
1,253
Recently there was a story reporting on OpenAI’s form 5500 (the public disclosure about our 401k program) which some people used to make observations with the flavor of “see, they don’t REALLY believe in advanced AI, or else they wouldn’t be saving money!” I contribute to my openai-sponsored 401k as well as other conventional retirement-savings vehicles. I cannot speak for any of my colleagues, but I can tell you why I personally make these contributions. First there is the reality that the whole “advanced AI means money has no value, either because we live in utopia and everything’s free or because we are all dead” are extreme ends of the spectrum of possible futures. It is true that things of this flavor, or other scenarios similar enough to this that one’s retirement savings don’t matter, *are* possible outcomes. But also there are many other plausible transformative futures, and I’m enough of a Burkean that I’m not going to jettison some of the oldest financial wisdom humans have developed (save money!) over my own projections about the future. It wouldn’t be responsible to my family, for one thing. Family is an important part of my thinking on this topic for other reasons. In some sense, I want to live in a future where having set aside money for retirement is still prudent. That would mean the future, however transformed, is still familiar enough. A world where it truly doesn’t matter whether uou save may be a lovely place to live (or it may not), but regardless of its desirability it is a world SO transformed that, again, my Burkean prior kicks in. I *hope* the future is at least vaguely familiar to me as I exist today. I hope that at least some of the habits I have learned still matter in that future, and that some of the wisdom I have learned holds true. I hope that not just for me but for my son and future children. I do a lot of things out of this hope, and one small example is that I contribute to a 401k. A lot of people made their sneering observations about OAI employees’ 401k contributions, saying “derp de doo, revealed preferences, they don’t believe what they say.” That’s fine. Maybe that IS why some frontier AI company staff save for retirement. But I’d characterize my mentality about savings more as an article of faith at this point, and my biweekly 401k contributions as tiny prayers for a vaguely recognizable future.
I'm 40 and struggle with retirement planning in the singularity, even if we stay on this pace without RSI. Do life extension drugs require 40+ years of savings rather than the standard 25? Will huge GDP growth mean a 3-4% withdraw rate is too conservative? Should I stop saving or double down? The S&P has done 15% average over the last decade, well above the long term 10% returns. Is that the new normal to plan for, or are we going to rip even higher and start to see 20%+ averages over the 2026-2050 time period as new medicine and technology arrives at break neck speed? Or will AI create so much job loss that despite rapidly advancing technology things will flatten out? If you're max bullish there's a point where you hit an amount of savings that continuing to save actually doesn't make any sense and you may as well spend it now. You kind of have to hope for the best but plan for the worst and it's actually pretty confusing
6
2
129
14,168
Dean W. Ball retweeted
The contrast between hanging up the last phone call of the day of high-stakes decisions and then a minute later walking in the door to the pure love of small children who want to laugh and play and show you every discovery they made that day is the strangest and best thing I have ever experienced in life.
913
517
19,300
1,121,785
Dean W. Ball retweeted
I agree with this. These web data access incidents tell us something about the scale and persistence of agents, but are not sophisticated from a cyber perspective, so using the word "hack" is not helpful.
To be quite frank, a lot (not all!) of these “rogue agent hacks” on government statistical websites are things that think-tank interns and research assistants have done for many years. I have known many a think tank paper that was enriched by an enterprising RA using eg urlquery to find CSVs and PDFs on government agency websites that were publicly accessible and non-sensitive but nonetheless not things the agency *intended* to be on their website. Is it “hacking” to find those things? Is it hacking in the even more innocuous examples where agents are literally just accessing tabular data available on a government statistical website, just a version of that data that is easier to access and analyze programmatically? This constant trickle of examples (which tbc I have personally seen many models do, before I joined OpenAI; it is even something I have discussed with models before!) will probably have the effect of diminishing the importance of “an AI hack” on the eyes of the observing public by creating an oversupply of “AI hack” examples. OAI-HF was an example of AI hacking. Many of these more recent examples, very candidly, are straining the definition of the word “hack” and, I worry, cheapen the non-technical public’s understanding of that concept.
6
24
241
14,613
To be quite frank, a lot (not all!) of these “rogue agent hacks” on government statistical websites are things that think-tank interns and research assistants have done for many years. I have known many a think tank paper that was enriched by an enterprising RA using eg urlquery to find CSVs and PDFs on government agency websites that were publicly accessible and non-sensitive but nonetheless not things the agency *intended* to be on their website. Is it “hacking” to find those things? Is it hacking in the even more innocuous examples where agents are literally just accessing tabular data available on a government statistical website, just a version of that data that is easier to access and analyze programmatically? This constant trickle of examples (which tbc I have personally seen many models do, before I joined OpenAI; it is even something I have discussed with models before!) will probably have the effect of diminishing the importance of “an AI hack” on the eyes of the observing public by creating an oversupply of “AI hack” examples. OAI-HF was an example of AI hacking. Many of these more recent examples, very candidly, are straining the definition of the word “hack” and, I worry, cheapen the non-technical public’s understanding of that concept.
29
43
482
46,751
nailed it
NEW: According to a bombshell report in the New York Times, Anthropic co-founder Chris Olah threatened to walk out of Pope Leo XIV’s AI encyclical launch in May because the pope rejected the idea that machines can be conscious. Olah’s team then privately lobbied the pope’s advisers “to take the possibility of model consciousness seriously.” Pope Leo XIV held firm. For months, Anthropic has wined and dined theologians and religious scholars under nondisclosure agreements, hoping they would bless the idea that Claude has moral standing. thelettersfromleo.com/p/nyt-…
9
3
149
18,411
another one of my most hated tweet series whose analysis ends up being shown to be rooted in fact
1
23
2,399
And in truth, as a user, I *want* agents to find the publicly accessible but hard-to-find public datasets. I’d consider that a part of a well-aligned agent. As an American too, tbqf.
58
2,830
Dean W. Ball retweeted
I continue to think (and fear) that questions around AI personhood are going to be the defining religious conflict of the 21st century. It's going to get extremely ugly.
In this era of artificial intelligence, it is becoming urgent to distinguish human art from what machines produce. There is an ontological difference, even before an aesthetic one, between art and what a machine can generate through statistical calculation based on millions of images created by others. Algorithms lack the spark of humanity. For this reason, the Church wishes to renew an alliance with artists and cultural institutions to safeguard our humanity.
134
9
124
90,999
Dean W. Ball retweeted
🔵@deanwball, autor de «Hyperdimensional», director de Futuros Estratégicos en @OpenAI y actualmente investigador sénior no residente en @JoinFAI, en #ForoLaToja2026: "Siempre existe la tensión entre centrarnos en los escenarios de largo plazo y futuro o en lo que tenemos delante hoy. Una de las cosas que está provocando la IA es una relación diferente con el tiempo: el largo plazo quizá sean un año y medio o dos, y el corto plazo, mañana."
1
1
5
2,234
Dean W. Ball retweeted
I wrote about the systemic failure by the world's most valuable company and powerful government to stop smuggling of AI chips to China US officials say Nvidia is missing obvious signs. Nvidia says "companies honor US laws as they are, not as America’s critics wish they were" 1/
8
64
159
50,072
I applaud the California Legislature and Governor Newsom for passing gene synthesis screening and customer verification requirements. This is a common-sense rule we will need in the impending era of agents that accelerate synthetic biology the way AI has already accelerated math.
Yesterday, Gov. Newsom signed AB1864 to mandate DNA screening in CA. The bill creates a statutory basis for existing OSTP guidance that much (but not all!!) of the industry has purportedly followed for years –– but we never had any way of verifying or enforcing whether companies did these basic biosecurity steps, since the existing guidance was voluntary and based on a "trust me, bro" self-attestation system. This is a good milestone for AI-biosecurity, mostly because it shows that we can and should apply the same standard federally and internationally
4
18
104
12,753
fun fact: this bill may never have happened were it not for The Curve 2025. @snewmanpv @TarenSK
3
15
2,372
Dean W. Ball retweeted
>Posts that we’re not an effective altruist country >Immediately implements the EA mosquito task force
Trump declared TICK AND MOSQUITO DEATH as policy
38
74
1,871
80,017
I really fucking love to use coding agents. It is easy to forget amid the banging and clanging of politics and frontier risk and all the rest, but nonetheless, I really fucking love to use coding agents.
9
3
104
6,335
It’s cool how the idea of third-party embedded evaluators as a pillar of frontier AI policy went from not really on any Americans’ radars 18 months ago to ~consensus. I remember when the idea was much closer to the fringes. Not that long ago, even some of the orgs we now look to as potential evaluators questioned why they’d want to be deputized in that way when I pitched them on it.
16
12
176
14,160