Some basic lessons for new investors to live by: 1/ Ignore the crowd. You make money by going against the consensus. 2/ Always pick stocks where you feel you have a research edge. 3/ You rarely go wrong investing in the company with the best product. 4/ Don’t listen to management. They are paid to be bullish. 5/ Study competitors, suppliers, and customer behavior. Be a product junkie. 6/ Have in your mind what you think a stock is worth, which is different from price. 7/ Be able to articulate in one sentence why you own a stock. 8/ Develop specific downside scenarios that would cause you to sell the stock. 9/ The highest quality of growth is unit growth, then pricing, then margin expansion, then cash reinvestment. 10/ Be wary of companies that grow by buying other companies. 11/ Sell discipline is selling a stock once it exceeds your price target, or if your investment thesis changes. 12/ Short stocks that have bad businesses, and not because they trade at high P/Es. 13/ Two big value creators are brand extension and TAM expansion stories. 14/ High P/Es are a function of high future growth rates, and not the industry. 15/ When investing in growth stocks always look for a controversy (“fight”). 16/ Buy stocks that can leverage key secular megatrends, and avoid those that will be hurt by them. 17/ Always consider cannibalization of existing products when sizing up new product opportunities. 18/ Be wary of “hockey stick” sales forecasts absent new products or expansion to new distribution channels. 19/ Stock buybacks are accretive if the E/P ratio exceeds the after tax cost of debt or return on cash. 20/ Price cuts rarely add value since they often create a race to the bottom. 21/ Stocks are cheap if price is less than the present value of future cash flows. A high P/E does not make a stock expensive.

$TSLA has now reported two consecutive very strong delivery numbers. On Friday, it reported 3Q delivs of 486.5K vs 462.0K consensus. That TSLA delivs were down just -2% YoY vs TSLA’s record 2025 3Q, when the $7,500 EV credit was expiring, says it all. This followed TSLA’s blowout 2Q, when it delivered 480K vehicles vs WS expectations of 406K. Investors are now more focused on TSLA’s efforts to scale up unsupervised autonomy in front of competitors, where TSLA’s generalized FSD technology is clearly superior, but its scale up has fallen far short of management’s guidance (current guidance unsupervised autonomous miles compounding at 10%+ per week; prior guidance unsupervised autonomy with no safety drivers in 8-10 metro areas by 2025 year-end, and prior to that in markets addressing 50% of the U.S. population by 2025 year-end). Today TSLA unsupervised autonomy has been approved for use in six U.S. metros across Texas and Florida (Austin, Dallas, Houston in TX; Miami, Orlando, and Tampa in FL) with the San Francisco Bay Area on deck and Las Vegas approved for permit but still not live. Waymo has been authorized for public fully driverless rides in 15 U.S. metros, including Phoenix, the Bay Area, Los Angeles, San Diego, Austin, Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, Atlanta, Miami, Orlando, Tampa, Denver, Nashville, and Las Vegas. Waymo operates roughly 4,000+ driverless vehicles nationwide. Tesla had about 589 vehicles registered in Texas as fully autonomous (420 Model Ys and 169 Cybercabs) as of October 2. YTD TSLA -18% vs NDX +22%.

I’ll accept that it’s both the 50% increase in gas prices since Feb and greater awareness of FSD that are driving $TSLA sales. But since only 35% TSLA sales come from the U.S. and FSD unsupervised is still only approved in a single digit % of the U.S. I’m going to say it’s primarily higher gas prices driving increased global TSLA deliveries. FSD also doesn’t explain why $RIVN beat 3Q estimates so handily: RIVN delivered 19,248 units vs 17,633 est. Because RIVN blew past 3Q expectations but left its FY’26 guidance unchanged at 65K-70K, RIVN stock fell -3% today.

I seriously doubt FSD’s progress in solving for unsupervised autonomy is driving $TSLA sales. Many auto manufacturers ($GOOG, $BIDU, $PONY, $WRD, $AMZN) now have self driving vehicles. As I’ve posted many times, unsupervised autonomy becomes table stakes for remaining in the global EV business. Absent advertising, few consumers other than $TSLA bulls are even aware of how good FSD has become.

US stocks rose pre-market Friday in front of Sept non-farm payrolls as brent crude fell below $100/bbl and the 10-year treasury yield eased after Fed officials signaled no urgency to hike short-term rates again. Bitcoin, gold, and silver all gained. $NKE dropped 10% after offering dismal FY’27 guidance and rev deterioration that mgmt indicated would continue into FY’28. Chip stocks were firm after $MU ‘s strong results and guidance; $GOOG advanced on its Gemini 4 Argon AI rollout. $TSLA edged up ahead of 3Q deliveries. S&P 2026 EPS estimates imply a 20.9x P/E and an earnings yield below Treasuries, a setup last seen near the 2000 dotcom peak. $TSLA valuation looks extended at a 2026 P/E of 225x amid declining 2027-2030 earnings estimates and rising autonomy competition.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ For greater detail, please see our daily pre-mkt summary for Subscribers.

$NKE -4% AH as 1Q revs missed ($11.21B vs $11.33B est) and mgmt guided FY’27 revs to decline by HSD (vs -2%E). The company cited weakness in China, in sportswear, and the Jordan brand and is taking steps to reposition each. FY’2027 Adj EPS guidance of $1.15-$1.35 was well below consensus of $1.65. While NKE pro-forma 2027 P/E of 26.4x (at the midpoint of guidance) is low vs history (~30x forward EPS), an apparel company with negative rev and eps growth and struggling to show that CEO Elliott Hill’s turnaround plan after two years is taking root could be re-rated lower. Conf call at 5pm ET.

10yrTY falling sharply today (-6.9bp to 5.21%) sparked by a weaker than expected Sept ISM report, which is helping $TSLA and other long duration growth names. NDX had been negative until about 1pm ET and is now up +0.5%. Economists estimate the Sept employment report due Friday will show Sept non-farm payrolls expanded by +88K (vs Aug +162K).

US stocks were mixed pre-market as the global bond selloff intensified and a rebound in oil prices offset AI strength. Brent rose 2.2% to $100/bbl and the 10-year yield hit 5.33%, its highest level since 2002. Bitcoin fell and gold was flat. Yesterday’s August PCE came in below forecasts; September payrolls are due Friday. $MU beat and guided higher on AI memory demand, but shares slipped on cycle worries, while peer memory chip manufacturers rose as did $GOOG as its flagship Gemini 4 Argon AI model began rolling out. S&P 2026 EPS estimates imply a 20.9x P/E and 4.8% earnings yield, at the highest level of inversion versus Treasury yields since the late-1990s/2000s dot com peak. $TSLA looks extended at a 225x 2026 P/E vs +45% long-term forward EPS growth amid negative EPS revisions and commoditization of unsupervised autonomy.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ For greater detail see my daily pre-mkt summary for Subscribers.

$TSLA 3Q IR-compiled consensus deliveries is 461,972 -7% YoY. Recall, the $7,500 EV credit expired on 9/30/2025, which likely triggered stepped-up buying in 2025 3Q. $TSLA is expected to announce 3Q deliveries before the market opens on Fri 10/2. ir.tesla.com/press-release/d…