67 minutes.
That's how long it took for "false flag" theories to start flooding social media after flydubai Flight FZ1073 sent its first emergency signal. I've written about conspiracy thinking for decades, and it does not surprise me that they start spreading in the digital age before anyone actually knows what happened. Facts are not necessary for conspiracy theories to go viral.
Over 12 hours,
@CombatASemitism researchers tracking X counted nearly 3,000 posts blaming Israel, the Mossad, Netanyahu, "Zionists," or Jews. A thousand of them came within five hours. Among posts using the phrase "false flag," roughly 72% were pushing that, and by the final hours it was above 80%.
After any major catastrophe, expect it. Psychologists call it proportionality bias: a huge event feels like it needs an equally huge cause. A simple explanation is not enough for many people, so they reach for a far more complicated and nefarious hidden hand.
That instinct is human. But that does not explain what happened here in the hours as the story was unfolding. These conspiracies are created and distributed by opportunists, hostile governments, and professional Jew-haters. They want to fill the online vacuum before the facts arrive.
Look at the first day. The false-flag frame was available from state-linked media in Tehran almost immediately. Iran's semiofficial Fars news agency cited unnamed Iranian security agencies claiming Israel was planning an aviation attack to pin on Tehran, and ran that claim alongside the diversion of this flight. Of course, it offered no evidence linking the two.
At the same time, unverified accounts were inventing details about who was involved, leaning on India-Pakistan hostility to assign nationalities to the people on board before authorities had said anything.
I can't tell you the posts on X were coordinated, and I won't pretend to. That takes evidence, the same standard I'd demand of the conspiracy theorists. What the record does show is a script that was ready before the event, and an event that provided the ideal occasion for it.
Look at what that script does. Israelis on a plane someone tried to crash become the suspects. The victims are erased and the blame is flipped in about an hour.
None of this is a game. A huge share of people now get their news from TikTok clips and memes, not from reading. For them a viral lie that arrives first becomes the truth. Distrust any explanation that shows up before the evidence does.