2026 could generate more exit value than the prior 10 years combined
AI reminds me of previous private<>public reflexive flywheels like the EV SPAC complex and crypto low float high fdv
- new era shiny category emerges (EVs, AI)
- early winners deliver outstanding performance and form the center of gravity for the trend (TSLA, NVDA)
- Herd mentality private investors snowball VC valuations (Rivian, Anthropic)
- Liquid beta runs, further amplifying private valuations (Nio, Nebius)
- A reflexive self-validating loop starts: liquidity concentrates in select private and public names
- (private) valuations disconnect from liquidity; insiders see the signs on the wall
- insiders rush to the exit with low-float launches at high valuations (EV SPAC complex, AI mega IPOs)
- supply shock hits; private valuations get public market reality check
- price action turns; euphoria evaporates. Reflexive unwind (or retest and up only)
- pre-profit beta gets zeroed out (Nio, Rivian) and even the actual cycle winners suffer massive drawdowns (TSLA -75%)
Fully diluted public market valuations are the ultimate reality check - the AI complex will have its in the coming months
AI has significant revenues, which allows the bubble to be orders of magnitude larger; liquidity dynamics remain the same