It'll be the easiest of all Ukrainian weapons to shoot down. Ukraine only manages hits when leveraging corridors that bypass radar coverage. A ballistic arc missile launched at the most heavily air-defended city on earth would be swatted out of the sky with ease

🇺🇦❗️Starting next week, several embankment dams with pontoon crossings are planned to be built in Kyiv — the work could take up to three months, said Infrastructure Minister Kalashnyk. They also want to build a tunnel under Dnipro as a backup route for communication between the left and right banks. The cost of large-scale projects could amount to tens of billions of hryvnias.

Zelensky: "We won't respond on their civilian objects." So the Crimean bridge was just an accident?

Crazy how all the Crimean Bridge fanatics have suddenly gone quiet in the last few days. Same with all the Wildberries ones too. Russian counter-escalation has seemingly created deterrence not only with physical strikes, but also in the information space.

“This never happened to the Northern Bridge in Kiev when it was still called Moscow Bridge”

In a new statement, the Russian Ministry of Defence announced targeting the "Northern" Road Bridge across the Dnieper River in Kyiv, which they say is used for transporting troops and logistics to the frontline. They also claim to have struck the "Hostomel" logistics centre in the city of Hostomel, which allegedly stores military equipment. Furthermore, the MoD claims that a dry cargo ship was struck in the northwestern Black Sea, as it was allegedly transporting dual-purpose cargo to Odesa Port for the Ukrainian military.

⚡️‼️New report: Kiev In Panic as Russian Drones Begin Severing Main-Bridge Cables simplicius76.substack.com/p/…

Some Ukrainians are starting to realize Putin restrained his military commanders. Kiev could have been under 24/7 bombardment from Day 1 if he chose to, but he wanted a peace deal without destroying the city. This restrained approach is now in the dustbin of history.

🇷🇺📊 Russia’s Budget Becomes Less Dependent on Oil and Gas Russia’s draft fiscal plans project oil-and-gas revenues falling to 2.7% of GDP by 2029, down from 5.5% in 2024 and an estimated 3.3% in 2026. Alongside that decline, the government expects higher tax receipts outside the oil-and-gas category to carry more of the federal budget. The Finance Ministry’s published budget, tax and customs policy guidelines for 2027–2029 project a growing role for non-oil-and-gas revenues in financing federal spending. They describe the government’s expected revenue structure over the coming years. The 2026 figure remains an estimate, while the later figures are forecasts rather than money already collected. The distinction between GDP and budget revenue matters. The 2.7% figure measures federal oil-and-gas receipts against the size of the economy; it does not mean hydrocarbons will supply only 2.7% of the budget. Separate reporting on the draft puts their share of federal revenue at 15.9% in 2029, leaving roughly 84% to other receipts. The government expects those other revenues to grow through a broader tax base, better collection and changes to tax legislation, both implemented and proposed. That means the budget would draw more heavily on taxable activity across the economy. Some of the increase would also come from tax policy, so higher receipts cannot automatically be read as proof of faster industrial growth. Several forces explain the declining oil-and-gas ratio. The guidelines cite exchange rates, global energy prices and the composition of production and exports, alongside a projected smaller oil-and-gas sector relative to the economy. A lower ratio alone does not establish that lost energy income has been successfully replaced. For state finances, the practical test is whether other tax receipts can sustain spending as hydrocarbons contribute less. A broader revenue base could make funding public services, infrastructure and defense less sensitive to swings in energy income. That resilience depends on the wider economy generating enough taxable income to support the plan. If the forecast holds, pressure on Russian energy exports would have a smaller direct channel into federal finances. Oil and gas would remain important, but the government would fund a larger share of its commitments through other revenues, reducing the extent to which an energy shock dictates its spending choices.

🕯️ Kyiv bid farewell to two American volunteers who were killed fighting for Ukraine. Tributes were paid to the US volunteers at Independence Square and St. Alexander's Church. 📹: Radio Svoboda

Soviet soldiers sit on the colossal bronze statue of Mars at the Kaiser Wilhelm National Monument in Berlin on Victory Day, May 9, 1945. The grand 1901 memorial, built by sculptor Reinhold Begas to honor the German Emperor, was completely demolished by East Germany in 1950.

More from my @FT interview with President Zelenskyy and on the intelligence intercepted by Kyiv about Russia's winter attack plans. It's deeply disturbing. Attacks concentrated on Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odesa and Lviv. The goal: isolate them, destroy morale, sow chaos, spark a new flood of refugees into the EU. Also: Russia wants to sever Ukraine's nuclear facilities from the energy grid. ft.com/content/c2ad4cd1-a08a…

In an FT interview, Zelensky said Ukrainian intel, including intercepted Kremlin calls, shows Putin scrapped the limits Russia followed in earlier air campaigns. Zelensky said Putin gave the order in September as strikes on Kyiv intensified, and “there are no rules now”. ft.com/content/c2ad4cd1-a08a…

The New York Times, citing a Russian document allegedly intercepted by Ukraine, reports that Russia intends to use up to 1,000 drones, missiles, and glide-bombs against Ukrainian energy and water infrastructure in winter, especially in Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Odesa. Russia will also reportedly target the electrical switchyards at the Rivne, Khmelnytskyi, and South-Ukraine Nuclear Power Plants. In Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Odesa, Russia reportedly plans to cut electricity and heating by 90%, while causing significant disruption to their water sewerage system. The strike campaign will reportedly take place in three stages, starting with targeting electrical substation near the western borders of Ukraine used to transfer European-supplies electricity, before moving to hydro-electric power plants, and then targeting nuclear power plants at the end. In my opinion, 1,000 missiles, drones, and glide-bombs is a massive undercount. According to available information, Russia has over 12,000 Geran-2 drones in reserve, a portion of which they will likely use during the winter for strikes on energy targets. I believe that when counting drones, missiles, and glide-bombs, Russia could use up to 10,000 munitions (mainly Geran-2/4 drones) to attack energy infrastructure.

⚡️‼️Russia Debuts New Drone Tech for Start of Annual Winter De-Energization Drive Against Kiev simplicius76.substack.com/p/…

A people who cannot capitalize their adversary's name properly are not capable of winning an existential war because they expose a critical immaturity and fundamental absence of rationality that is simply incompatible with the ability to win a major armed conflict