With few hours to go for Exit Polls. BJP 302 + NDA 347 + INC 53+ UPA 79 + Others 106 to 116

Many a times CM wins you state elections but sometimes local MLA’s, party organisation at the village level wins you the election. Uttar Pradesh 2027 is like that. MLA’s are fighting against lazy clerical staff for the people. Many in the media don’t understand the undercurrents locally. @CMOfficeUP @myogiadityanath @myogioffice @blsanthosh @TawdeVinod @NitinNabin

Does Uzbekistan still have a chance for 🥇 If not 🇮🇳 is at 4th place.

Gold Medal 🥇 for Men’s Hockey. 5-1 is the final result.

Another 🥇for 🇮🇳 Aman defeated North Korea’s reigning world champion, Han Chong Song, with a final score of 11-7.

There is a growing threat for Regional Parties survival because of Congress party. Most of these Regional Parties were established to oppose the Congress party. But they ended up taking up the support of Congress or supporting Congress to stop BJP. Decimation of Left parties began when they supported UPA 1. BRS Waterloo started when they allied with Congress & MIM to stop BJP to come to power at Nizamabad Corporation in 2020. Sooner they realise this fact better their chances for survival.

Uzbekistan 🇺🇿 also has 3 🥇opportunities today.

The next 3 🥇opportunities for 🇮🇳 to go past 🇺🇿 1. 2:44 PM IST: Aman Sehrawat vs Chong Song Han (North Korea) — Men's Freestyle 57kg Wrestling Final. 2. 3:10 PM IST:
Antim Panghal vs Akari Fujinami (Japan) — Women's Freestyle 53kg Wrestling Final. 3. 3:30 PM IST: Men’s Hockey Final vs Malaysia.

India at 19🥇 Possiblility for 4th place finish increases.

Why is Hardoi central to the battle for Awadh—and how decisive could the Pasi vote become? JVC Sreeram @sreeramjvc analyses BJP’s grassroots advantage, SP’s vulnerabilities and Vijay’s crucial TVK test in the Dharapuram and Madurantakam bypolls. Watch: piped.video/7PHc6myknYw

Congress Brahmin-Muslim combo is interesting at Uttar Pradesh. Till 1989 their core votes came from Brahmin-Muslim-Dalit axis with Rajputs being a top up. Let’s see whom they are tying up with.

India at 18🥇 7 to 8 more opportunities exist. Would be good if they can convert at least 5. If 🇮🇳 finish 4th would be great but that also depends on how much Uzbekistan 🇺🇿 finishes with. 🇺🇿 have 20🥇 & they have 3 to 5 opportunities between today & tomorrow. Race to 4th position.

In 2017 Anil Kumar Singh won on BSP ticket at Purwa in Unnao district beating BJP’s Lodhi candidate. Lodhi community are numerically strong over there. Still he won in a BJP wave election pushing 4-term SP MLA Udayraj Yadav to 3rd position. When BSP went in alliance with SP in 2018 Rajya Sabha elections he cross voted for BJP and sounded prophetic when he said this unholy alliance would destroy BSP. He has been proved right. Btw in 2022 he secured 52.27% votes (23.25%⬆️) compared to 2022. He also ensured that BJP got 48.26% in 2024 elections from this assembly segment. He is famously remembered for saying that he upholds “Kshatriya Dharma”.

BJP is taking the 2027 UP elections extremely serious on ground. I repeat Akhilesh Yadav is being exposed by PDA formula. After OBC activation the BJP is moving the next big game of protecting Awadh. In this region the political heavyweights are Pasi community. Man to Man Pasi marking makes BJP completely superior which I shall explain soon. BJP has appointed Vikash Kishore as BJP UP SC Morcha Vice President. BJP is not just working on Macro but it is mapping every constituency & booth. Vikash is from Mahilabad (SC) assembly constituency where is mother is a sitting MLA. Father was former MP. SP should not have taken PDA card. BJP can squeeze them on Social Engineering. At Awadh BJP has 15 tall Pasi leaders while SP can at best boast of Mohanlalganj MP & Faizabad MP. Rest are small time local players. Unlike what many believe that UP is a single narrative election it is not. Multiple factors play out. A party would need to tick several boxes. Only one party has it in them to tick all the boxes.

SP crafted a PDA strategy to counter the Ram Mandir effect in 2024. Social Engineering versus Hindu Culture Nationalism. PDA was largely a success. It was meant to be only a Pilot run. Even Akhilesh Yadav didn’t expect it to be that successful. What this success meant is that BJP woke up & found every layer of PDA strategy. Such a strategy could work against any other party but BJP is the Big Dad of Social Engineering. Hence expect BJP to unleash their version of Social Engineering in 2027. May be Akhilesh over exposed his strategy too early. And remember what I had said after Maharashtra elections on live TV. Same narrative hardly works in two consecutive elections. BJP knows to reinvent itself. Let’s wait & watch.

I have properly mapped regions. If you want I can give one. My methodology is based on the districts coming under which division. Administrative Regions (AR); Paschim UP Political Regions (PR) under that; Doab, Braj & Rohilkhand AR: Central UP PR: Awadh AR & PR: Bundelkhand AR: Eastern UP PR: Poorvanchal. Can share the seats with you under each region in DM.

Can @RahulGandhi explain & apologise for his mother casting her vote in Booth Number 145 in 1980 at New Delhi when she was not a citizen of India? This is on records. Can someone like @PChidambaram_IN explain this? Prove it right or wrong. You can’t ignore this. I am going to follow up. Wait, before I expose the Vote Chori of Congress Party.

Now that BJP has appointed state incharge for Uttar Pradesh the next step would be appointing election in charges who are normally from the union cabinet. As an exception for Jharkhand Assam CM was appointed along with Mama Ji. If they were to appoint a CM then @Dev_Fadnavis would be the right fit but considering Maharashtra is a big state to administer & UP is the largest state he may not be able to take up this assignment. Next obvious choice could be @JPNadda He managed UP during 2019 Lok Sabha polls where BJP faced the combined might of SP & BSP. He delivered. Considering the social fabric JP Nadda could be the best choice provided his health permits. @NitinNabin @blsanthosh

We have constituencies where people clearly know that their MLA is fighting for their rights. But we also have MLA’s who hide behind the administration. If they are fielded people won’t vote for them. This is turning out into a fascinating contest where several variables are coming into play. I don’t think AY & SP can manage so many factors while BJP has a better & larger team to manage these variables.

Certain hardcore BJP supporters have given a wrong prescription in social media. I am repeating again. More than the anti-incumbency against MLA’s it is the administrative apathy which is a bigger problem. There are many MLA’s who are fighting against the system being in constant conflict with a lazy government employees who are unwilling to move. I can name those MLA’s. Poor MLA’s are accountable but Sarkari attitude is hurting them badly. Hope it is heard by @CMOfficeUP