Exploring the market's runoff.
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How I use @finviz_com to screen for leveraged ETFs
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For the past several years I have sold naked calls against leveraged ETFs and employed various watchlists to track the growing field. Most tools are ill-suited for this purpose and require a lot of manual intervention.
Finviz works best. Here are the exact steps I use:
1. Go into screener
2. On ETF tab, click "leverage" and select 2x for long or -2x for short. This is the gearing ratio for most single name leveraged ETFs and many multi-name leveraged ETFs.
3. [optional] On the Descriptive tab, click "Option/Short" and select "optionable"
4. On the "Order By" dropdown at top, select "52-Week High (relative)" and "Desc"
5. For view, select "charts"
This isolates the top performing 2x/-2x ETFs. Here are the top 9 charts for each currently (optionable only).
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in the 70s and early 80s:
- inflation was so bad the most popular "brand" in 70s grocery stores was generic
- mortgages were not plentiful, they were hard to get. Many had to resort to seller financing like land contracts or rent-to-own.
- the news reported frequently on the economic "misery index" (iirc the sum of inflation and unemployment)
Boomers (at least early boomers) didn't have it easy in their 20s and 30s. It just seems that way because of the economic power that generation later usurped then abused.
Younger generations are going through an equally rough time now. I see that with my own children. But they are about to be blessed with an abundance of housing and employment turnover as boomers downsize and retire. Lets get to work...you have enormous opportunities ahead.
I feel bad for anyone in their 20s or 30s
On a single income boomers would:
Buy a nice house
Have multiple kids
Take family vacations
Have a wife who stays home
Work the same job for 40 years
No one under age 40 can do this 😔
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$FJET prospectively and retrospectively more than doubling CEO pay. While it is true that $350k is not a huge CEO salary, it is $350k more than Starfighter's revenue under his tenure.
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It always amazes me how mainstreet business media just assumes causation.
Today's WSJ says that rising bond yields cause declines in demand for luxury handbags. Maybe that is true. Maybe not. But WSJ is supposed to be the premier business rag with actual editorial standards and actual data. Show facts, or don't assert it.
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first Jared and now this. Why does Subway keep hitching its wagon to criminals?
Let's check in with Subway. The former CEO of the company's Independent Purchasing Cooperative, or IPC, was charged, along with her brother, in an $80 million bribery and kickback scheme.
Janet Risi was CEO of the organization from 1996 through 2021, when she received a $6 million severance.
The cooperative makes deals with vendors that supply food and paper for Subway franchisees for use in the chain's 19k stores.
Risi allegedly made secret arrangements with brokers representing vendors that supply items like deli meats, cheeses and cookies. She'd allegedly get bribes and kickbacks for contracts. She and her family laundered the funds through shell companies, and often split the funds with the brokers.
She allegedly used the funds to buy $400k worth of jewelry, paid $420,000 to a family assistant and $150,000 to a handyman and housekeeper, and used funds to pay $3.4 million in credit card debt. Also used funds to remodel two homes and buy furniture. There was also an $8 million payment in 2011 to settle a lawsuit alleging she had an inappropriate relationship with vendors -- meaning that there were allegations at least a decade old that this stuff was going on. The IPC apparently knew nothing about this, according to the indictment, and gave her that severance. Man.
Vendor kickbacks, or rebates, are common. Most companies in fact take these funds for themselves as revenue and report them in their FDD and on occasion will use said funds to back securitization debt.
Subway's coop is nonprofit and is designed to keep costs down, yet the scheme increased the prices franchisees paid for food. Operators we spoke with last night were floored. "People are shocked," one said. "She seemed like a very honest, straightforward person."
More here: nrn.com/restaurant-franchisi…
ALT Photo courtesy of Subway
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SG retweeted
A worse jobs report than I expected:
1/ +29K on NFP (with negative revisions to the prior months), unemployment rate ticks up from 4.14% to 4.18%
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$SEV shot-chaser
8k this morning boasts of slashing capital needs to $115m
S-3 this afternoon says raising up to $250m anyways
I'm naked short calls
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big print acknowledgment?
It was in Time magazine, so only reached about 7 people, but still...
"I don't want to tell you what those means are, but you can pay off the debt through other means."
Trump says in his Time magazine interview the Fed's interest rate policies are hurting the U.S. "more than inflation is hurting our country."
On why it has been so difficult to slow the rise in the debt: "I don't want to tell you what those means are, but you can pay off the debt through other means."
"Certain levels of inflation will also pay off that debt very rapidly. Very rapidly." wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-m…
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SG retweeted
Market right now reminds me a lot of this same window during 2023. Aug-Oct had ~10% correction driven in part by moves in yields. People sell to free up cash or to rotate into safer or higher conviction names. Most obvious candidates to liquidate are the ones already down a lot to harvest tax losses given near year-end. Those names get pushed down even further in a reflexive spiral, particularly if they are small and illiquid, and start to get totally disconnected from fundamentals.
Buying imploding small caps in Oct that year ended up being one of the most profitable decisions I've made and the rebound was very quick: SPY +8.7% Nov and +4.6% in December.
Not suggesting we're due to repeat that pattern on timing (I'm skeptical), but a number of names I follow are definitely at the point where the probability of an attractive IRR over some duration is looking quite high.
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This is so good. Must read 👇
And it reminded me of something about trading that I think people have an incredibly difficult time accepting:
You never know where your biggest winner is going to come from.
aaoresearch.substack.com/p/h…
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Most don't believe it but there are some great taquerias in the midwest.
A few of my faves:
Taqueria el Tio Ramos in West Dundee, IL
Gorditas Lisilena in West Chicago, IL
El Paraiso in South Haven, MI
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Bessent: I am the house
Bond market: The roof, the roof, the roof is on fire. We don't need no water let the MFer burn.
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Orange Juice continues to coil. Still think the decisive break is more likely up than down.
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$OJ getting closer. I have a small long in the Jan contract and will build on a definitive breakout.
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SG retweeted
WHAT WE KNOW ABOUT THE INCIDENT ON BOARD THE DUBAI-TEL AVIV FLIGHT
Israel is treating the incident on the flydubai flight FZ 1073 from Dubai to Tel Aviv as a "terror incident."
According to Israeli officials, shortly after entering Jordanian airspace, the Omani co-pilot stabbed the Emirati pilot and attempted to take control of the plane by force. The pilots are not from Russia and Ukraine, as initially believed.
During the altercation, the pilot transmitted a general emergency signal and then another emergency signal that indicated possible hijacking, as the aircraft was diverted towards Saudi Arabia and plunged 14,000 feet (approximately 4,200 meters) in a single minute, before landing at Tabuk Airport in northwestern Saudi Arabia.
Israeli passengers and the flight crew who heard the altercation coming from the cockpit managed to subdue the co-pilot, whose intent remains unknown at this stage.
It is unclear what the pilot was attempting—whether to hijack the plane to Israel, crash it into the ground, or carry out a 9/11-style attack. What is clear is that he wanted to hijack the plane and that a major disaster was averted, an Israeli official said.
The 150 Israeli passengers are currently waiting to be shuttled to Israel, as flydubai says it has sent an alternative plane. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Katz cancelled a visit to southern Israel and are holding security discussions.
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