Professor, strategic thinker, author and commentator

In its centennial anniversary issue released today, @ForeignAffairs has a special review section, "Books for the Century." My book, Water: Asia's New Battleground, has been named as one of the six essential Asia-Pacific books published over the century. foreignaffairs.com/reviews/b…
89
207
1,281
The Flydubai FZ1073 attack highlights a dangerous new phase in aviation security: the insider threat in the cockpit. The reinforced flight-deck doors introduced after 9/11 were designed to keep terrorists out. But they offer little protection when the threat is already inside the cockpit.
16
32
193
8,044
New official revelations underscore that the co-pilot’s grievous assault on the captain, which nearly brought down Flight FZ1073 from Dubai to Tel Aviv, could have been prevented through proper background screening. Oman had barred the co-pilot from flying over concerns that he was a radical Islamist, yet Flydubai hired him. During the flight, he used a “crash ax” — a 14- to 15-inch emergency tool with a sharp blade capable of cutting through an aircraft’s interior aluminum skin and fiberglass — to attack the captain and seek to seize control of the plane. Stored inside the cockpit, the crash ax is intended for use by flight crews during in-flight emergencies or post-crash evacuations, when it can be used to cut, pry open or breach interior structures. The captain survived an assault that could easily have ended in catastrophe.
17
87
425
22,199
Dr. Brahma Chellaney retweeted
🚨BREAKING: 🇷🇺Russian President Putin praises 🇮🇳India's uniqueness & unity, says it should be used as an example to build relations between different countries «India never fails to amaze with its scale & diversity. Few people know that, PM Modi told me that one and a half billion people, 600 million Indians, speak their native language, Hindi. And the majority speak their own languages, & everyone lives together. Amazing! This cannot but amaze. There is something in Indian culture that is so unique that it can certainly be used as an example. Uniqueness & unity at the same time» «And this is how, in my opinion, including by focusing on what is happening in India, we can build relations between different countries, with different cultures, with different histories, with different traditions»
32
471
1,990
130,030
America is in relative decline, a reality that helped give rise to the “Make America Great Again” movement. And as the Iran and Ukraine wars have shown, dominance (the ability to project or deploy force at will) is giving way to denial (the ability to make aggression very costly). The diffusion of precision technologies means that even weaker actors can inflict enormous costs on an aggressor. Yet the U.S., by integrating multi-domain technologies at scale and adapting faster than its adversaries to technological advances, is seeking, in the words of Secretary of War Hegseth, “to achieve technological and military dominance on the battlefield for decades to come.”
27
40
232
14,935
During last week’s White House welcoming ceremony for Xi, Trump asserted that the pursuit of common interests between the American and Chinese peoples had “even made us allies in World War II.” Xi then echoed this historical framing, portraying Japan as a resurgent military threat while telling Trump that China and America had fought “shoulder to shoulder against fascist aggression.” The catch is that America’s wartime ally was the Republic of China (ROC), then ruled by the Kuomintang (KMT), which later retreated to Taiwan. The Chinese Communist Party took power in Beijing in 1949 after defeating the KMT in a prolonged civil war.
12
27
163
11,085
Trump Is Not the Whole Problem The belief in some quarters in India that U.S.-India relations will return to normal once Donald Trump is no longer president ignores the structural shift in American policy toward India. The shift began in the latter half of the Joe Biden presidency and has accelerated under Trump. Washington no longer views India’s rise as entirely benign and is determined, as U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau bluntly stated on Indian soil, not to repeat its China mistake with India. When Indian Foreign Minister Jaishankar earlier this week called out Washington’s “lack of empathy” over India’s terrorism concerns and pointed to U.S. tariff shifts as a source of “bumps,” Modi responded with a phone call to Trump. The Indian leadership is seeking to maintain a warm working relationship with the Trump administration for strategic reasons while ensuring that its official voice clearly records India’s discontent on sensitive issues. It is also addressing the political necessity of blunting critics at home who accuse the government of being overly compliant with Washington. That effort has been reinforced by the public outcry over the government’s recent release of American covert operative Matthew Aaron VanDyke and his six Ukrainian accomplices following an intervention by Secretary of State Marco Rubio. The seven had been arrested by India’s National Investigation Agency, which accused them of terrorist conspiracy and waging war against the Indian state. New Delhi must face up to a difficult reality: Simply waiting for Trump’s departure will not restore the old U.S.-India relationship. The underlying shift in Washington’s view of India predates Trump and is likely to outlast him. New Delhi will have to adjust to an American policy that increasingly sees India's rise not simply as a strategic opportunity but also as a source of economic and geopolitical friction.
85
177
769
57,273
Dr. Brahma Chellaney retweeted
Hanoi’s reward for stabilising relations with Beijing? China is encircling Vietnam.
The new Ban Keun center in Laos and training center at Port Ream in Cambodia "cover inland airspace in the Indochina Peninsula and the maritime direction in the Gulf of Thailand." globaltimes.cn/page/202609/1…
4
20
100
7,685
Dr. Brahma Chellaney retweeted
The corruption in the second term of the Trump presidency -- profiteering off public power to enrich not just himself but his kids and their spouses with billions of new wealth -- is unlike anything seen before by any American president in scope or shamelessness.
A CNN investigation has found that while Jared Kushner acted as a key Middle East peace negotiator, his private equity firm held the largest stake in an Israeli company backing businesses tied to Israel's military campaign in Gaza, including its largest arms manufacturer. cnn.it/4y0xe5x
532
4,214
15,227
419,449
Forty-one years after the deadliest single-plane act of aviation terrorism to date — the bombing of Air India Flight 182 by Canada-based Khalistan extremists, which killed all 329 people aboard, mostly of Indian origin — an Indian pilot withstood repeated stabbings by his knife-wielding Omani co-pilot on a Flydubai flight, preventing another aviation disaster and saving some 180 lives. Despite being severely wounded, the captain managed to unlock the cockpit door, enabling passengers and crew to rush in and subdue the attacker.
21
144
705
21,081
My column: China’s greatest diplomatic victory in recent years has been won not on the battlefield or through economic coercion, but in Washington, where Trump has validated Beijing’s claim to peer status. For Xi, no concession could have delivered a more valuable prize than America itself recognizing China as a co-leader of the international system. thehill.com/opinion/internat…
18
49
236
12,542
Dr. Brahma Chellaney retweeted
This is a huge story: UK's internal security service MI5 issued an unprecedented public criticism of China, warning that more than 100 academics linked to British entities have unwittingly helped China's espionage operations, and that continuing to work with that Chinese entity could lead to criminal charges. This is perhaps the most aggressive public announcement from the UK towards China in decades. Too early to know if it signals a changing attitude from the government or is a test to see how Beijing responds -- either way, it's very significant. bbc.com/news/articles/cwy7zr…
93
611
1,380
136,382
Dr. Brahma Chellaney retweeted
This man is a hero. Captain Smit Machchhar, the Indian captain of flydubai Flight 1073, fought back after being stabbed in the cockpit. Despite being severely injured, he managed to unlock the cockpit door - allowing Israeli passengers and the Emirati crew to intervene and save all the passengers. Together, their extraordinary courage saved 174 lives. Indian. Israeli. Emirati. Different nationalities. One extraordinary act of courage. 🇮🇳🇮🇱🇦🇪 We wish Captain Machchhar a full and speedy recovery.
2,658
25,108
147,386
5,569,263
"after months of tensions [with the U.S.], New Delhi is adopting a more openly critical tone towards Washington to address the volatility and uncertainty that Trump brings to the White House. The changing tune in New Delhi also comes at a critical time for Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who faces mounting domestic pressure and criticism from the opposition for allegedly bowing down to US pressure, time and again." apple.news/AZjLKC33aTTGGtl0J…
23
62
311
27,351
Dr. Brahma Chellaney retweeted
Not a miracle. It was awe-inspiring heroism and courage displayed during the attempt to hijack and crash Flydubai flight FZ1073 traveling from Dubai to Tel Aviv, Israel. Hero: pilot and Indian national Smit Machchhar, who was attacked with a knife by his Omani co-pilot. While fighting his attacker, he was able to notify the crew and passengers (possibly by hitting the PA button). Lying in a pool of his own blood and still fighting, he was able to allow access to the cockpit while the plane was taking a violent nosedive, losing 17,000 to 18,000 feet in about two minutes. He fought like a lion and deserves so much respect and honor. @IndiaToday @ndtv @gauravcsawant @ShivAroor Heroes: the ordinary Israeli citizens who did not hesitate a second and jumped to assist the crew in fighting their way into the cockpit and subduing the co-pilot. This level of heroism and courage cannot be dismissed. People often miss that Israel has a citizen defense force made up of doctors, artists, college students, grandparents, business owners who all serve to defend their homes and nation against attacks by other nations, terrorist armies, and decentralized terror campaigns. Heroes: the flight crew who joined the passengers to get into the cockpit, subdue the attacker, and manage the passengers and chaos throughout the cabin. Heroes: off-duty pilots on board who were able to get the plane under control and safely land it in Saudi Arabia. It takes a village/tribe/community to keep each other safe, with people willing to fight evil when it comes to their doorstep. I have huge respect for all involved in this event.
NEW VIDEO: A passenger aboard the Flydubai flight describes the terrifying moments the plane suddenly plunged as an attack unfolded inside the cockpit. He recounts the chaos as passengers realized something was seriously wrong and details the effort to reach the cockpit and regain control of the aircraft. Officials say one pilot stabbed the other and the suspect appeared to try to crash the Tel Aviv-bound plane, which was carrying mostly Israeli passengers. Another crew member ultimately stabilized the aircraft before it made an emergency landing in Saudi Arabia.
200
2,310
9,915
494,475
Germany’s manufacturing competitiveness, which ranks first according to the UNIDO CIP Index, is built on thousands of small and medium-sized enterprises (Mittelstand) that specialize in high-precision engineering and dominate niche global markets. Contrast that with the double whammy India faces: Even as Beijing imposes India-specific export controls that undermine India’s manufacturing ambitions, New Delhi persists with an increasingly asymmetrical trade relationship with China that is decimating Indian small and medium-sized enterprises.
24
59
230
12,145
Dr. Brahma Chellaney retweeted
A realistic view of current India- US relations. In cautious diplomatic language the point has been made that the relationship faces difficulties on trade, terror and mobility fronts and awaits an upward trajectory. It is important that this is being stated publicly even if in a low key manner.
India-US ties face "bump" over trade, terror concerns EAM Jaishankar says "primary concerns on terrorism🇵🇰 is not full appreciated by my partner🇺🇸, it has impact on relationship"; Points to "bumps" in ties last year & that "economics & politics" of mobility are at "odds" in US
20
111
618
51,677
Dr. Brahma Chellaney retweeted
If this report is true, it means we are using U.S. troops to escort oil tankers through the SOH, where oil had been flowing freely before we started this disastrous war of choice at the behest of the Israelis. This a reckless and frivolous gamble with American lives, which we are foolishly opting to put at risk—not to thwart active terrorist threats to the homeland, but as an attempt to mitigate the damage we inflicted on ourselves & the global economy. Attaching U.S. military personnel to civilian ships makes those ships legitimate targets. This increases the threat level for all vessels and adds an even risker layer of complexity to the already challenging conditions we created in the SOH. It’s time to walk away now. End this war—any effort to use military force to secure a “win” will not have a meaningful lasting impact. It’s not worth the cost to our troops or inviting further escalation in this foolish war. nbcnews.com/politics/nationa…
871
3,151
12,395
319,062
The real losers in an informal U.S.-China G2 are America’s own friends, who will be compelled to hedge against U.S. unpredictability. Taiwan worries that its security could become a bargaining chip in U.S.-China negotiations. Japan fears that Trump's accommodating approach to China could dilute the U.S.-Japan alliance. India sees a G2 framework as fundamentally incompatible with its vision of a genuinely multipolar Asia.
43
104
612
28,369