Some personal news. Today, I’m leaving The Atlantic after almost 17 years and moving my writing to Substack. It would be convenient, for the purposes of crafting an exciting departure announcement, to have a dramatic exit story: a fight, a grievance, a shouting match with an editor that ended with me hurling a bunch of leather-backed Thoreau volumes across the open-plan office. That is not the case here. I love The Atlantic, and I'll remain a contributing writer there. But after almost two decades at one publication, I wanted to write for myself. The things I've published that I'm most proud of—whether it was the original abundance agenda essay, or my piece on workism—emerged from a very personal expression of frustration, or confusion, or curiosity. I want to know what my thinking and writing is like if I lean into a more independent and personal writing life. That's brought me to Substack, which is already home to an astonishing share of my overall reading. I'm excited to join their community and excited to build my own. The name of the newsletter should be easy to remember: Derek Thompson. The newsletter will have three main pillars 1. Abundance 2. The frontier of science and technology—GLP1s, AI, biotech, energy breakthroughs—covered in a way that’s both curious and skeptical 3. The anti-social century & the social crises of anxiety and aloneness Thanks to The Atlantic for 16.8 incredible years and thanks to everybody who follows me across the river. - dt

Adding my praise for this ChinaTalk interview with Logan Wright on his new book Broken China: chinatalk.media/p/logan-wrig…

One of the most interesting questions right now is which macro trends show a clear change due to AI (e.g. vulnerabilities disclosed and open math problems solved) and which don't (e.g. video games published and clinical trials launched). Someone should be tracking a lot of these

New newsletter: WHY AMERICANS HATE AI AI might be the most instantly unpopular emerging technology in modern history. Off the top of my head, I blame the rise of tech pessimism, the emergence of anti-billionaire politics, the fallout from disappointments of the social media age, the demonization (sometimes fair, sometimes unfair) of data centers, growing distrust of corporations in general, or the fact that people don’t appreciate being told that a new product is going to disemploy their children and destroy the world, while its architects become billionaires. But there’s another reason that these explanations overlook: AI's prophets promised a world of cheap abundance. But the AI buildout has created the exact opposite reality, in which basically everything AI touches is getting more expensive. We're seeing higher prices for everything in the AI buildout—electronics, electricity, construction labor, even credit. The Fed now believes that the growth from AI is pushing up overall inflation, which means AI is also a contributor to higher interest rates. We get so wrapped up in talking about what AI will do in the near future that we sometimes forget to look closely at what it's doing right now: a project broadly predicted to reduce prices and create post-material abundance is instead raising prices and showing everybody just how materially finite some parts of the economy are. derekthompson.org/p/were-mis…

New pod: HOW BIG COULD THE BLUE WAVE GET? Democrats aren't just poised to win in NC and GA. They're polling astonishingly well in Republican strongholds like Texas, Alaska, Iowa, and Kansas. I asked @NateSilver538 all about Democrats' incredible—possibly literally in-credible—September polling numbers and how a Democratic sweep in '26 could completely transform the presidential race in 2028. Incl.: - why Democrats odds suddenly exploded upwards in September - how Trump lost "it" - why Republicans seem so astonishingly weak in the midwest (polling errors, or cumulatively negative effect of tariffs and Iran war on local economy?) - what happens to Trump's influence in the upcoming GOP primaries in a world where Democrats crush in November - would a strong midterm for Democrats supercharge a El-Sayed vs. Ossoff narrative in '28? piped.video/watch?v=l8SjNu7W…

The fundamental tension w AI and education is that I think schools ought to (a) teach people how to think and (b) prepare them for the workforce (or, at the very least, not actively harm their employability). Those goals push in opposite directions. AI interferes with thinking but it’s also baked into the work of software, finance, legal, marketing, etc. If you use too much AI in college, you’ll be dumb; never use it for four years, and you’ll be in a disadvantaged position for the most popular high-paying entry level jobs. Something like this below seems like at least a thoughtful way of addressing that tension.

The easiest narrative here is that, in the Trump era: - If Trump is on the ballot: Polls overestimate Democratic support - If Trump not on the ballot: They don't ... but we're talking about fewer than 10 data points, so I'm not sure you want to bet your house on this in Nov.

The data center language in the permitting deal is the best yet & isn't getting enough attention. As I've argued for, it goes beyond "fair share" & forces data centers to pay full costs they cause AND their share of the existing grid. That's *billions of $/year* for ratepayers.

Huge kudos to the 4 senators and the White House for completing negotiations on energy permitting reform. The bill has been so difficult because the 4 senators came with very different priorities and constituencies. Capito (R-WV): pipelines and permitting certainty Whitehouse (D-RI): reducing emissions Lee (R-UT): removing regulatory barriers and protecting states' rights Heinrich (D-NM): protecting lands; transmission and renewables They came to the table because the current system fails on all four sets of priorities. But permitting reform is not zero sum. This deal advances all of them. It's good for America and the American people.

🚨 WE HAVE A PERMITTING DEAL🚨 And it is easily the best permitting bill we've ever gotten! - The Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act is HUGE (400+ pages) and both sides got a LOT. - The bill is much bigger and better than either Manchin post-IRA in 2022 or Manchin-Barrasso in 2024. Once I finish reading the text I'll publish an explainer. For now, here are a few high level takeaways. 1. Transmission: The bill is absolutely HUGE for transmission, going further than Manchin-Barrasso. Includes: interregional transmission, limited federal backstop authority, interconnection queue reforms, directives for advanced grid-enhancing tech, and oversight of utilities. It's absolutely AMAZING all of this got in. 2. NEPA: The bill has BIG changes to NEPA, including fixes for judicial review that underpins the law's costs. Still reading but this is even better than I expected! 3. Certainty: The bill includes strong provisions to push back on misuse of permitting, like we're seeing with the admin's abuses against offshore wind. 4. Historic Preservation: The bill includes changes to the NHPA 106 process, including changes to judicial review that will help right-size the process. 5. Clean Water: The bill fixes problems with section 401 by adding new requirements for states and makes section 404 nationwide permits easier to comply with. 6. Geothermal: The bill includes big wins for geothermal, including parity with oil and gas catexs. 7. Mining: The bill fixes the "Rosemont decision" 8. Endangered Species: The bill creates a new path for states to take on endangered species consultation. 9. Hydro: Fixes for certain hydroelectric projects 10. Ratepayer protection: The bill adds protections for ratepayers from added data centers. Looks to be stronger than the House passed bill by quite a bit.

Confused by all the debate about the new permitting reform bill? Here is a quick cheat-sheet of the most important provisions, and their likely impact on emissions:

This convo between @DKThomp and @CKlosterman is revelatory on a few levels, but this nugget really leapt out at me because what do you *MEAN* that LOVER GIRL by Laufey is Chuck’s favorite song of 2025? I wish he’d write more short form music criticism. open.spotify.com/episode/68K…

Eric Schmitt:

It's all the floorplans! There's nowhere to host! Bedrooms sized to watch TV in bed. Huge walk-in closets. En-suite baths. Massive Kitchens ... but tiny living rooms. And no space for dining tables “Apartments are built for Netflix and chill. We’re building for aloneness”

“To date, iPhone revenues have totaled $2.5 trillion.”

Great piece but also distressing! The secret IMO is to lower the bar for hosting: - don’t cook food, order takeout - include kids, accept messiness - don’t overdo the # of invites Esp bc of the decline @DKThomp notes, this toned down version is great and >> alternative (nothing)

After my husband made an ambitious 2025 resolution, we’ve hosted people for dinner nearly every Saturday since January of last year and it’s been occasionally hard, often chaotic, & completely transformative for our social life.

New pod: I talked to @CKlosterman about - his new book, an alternative history of 20th century rock - how the paradigm of analytics is changing everything from pop music criticism to baseball MVP voting - the decline of reading, whether podcasts are replacing non-fiction books, and the future of writing - why things become popular - the mysteries of critical reincarnation: Van Gogh died a failure but later became the one of the famous names in art in of pop music; Moby-Dick wasn't even included in some of Melville's obits but now it's broadly considered a (the) Great American Novel .... does this sort of thing ever happen in music? why doesn't it happen more? piped.video/watch?v=zS1wgLaL…

When reading books about old Washington the picture you get is that people were near constantly drunk, dining, and ripping cigs at each others houses Most of them died early but they seemed to have had a pretty good time