Have talked with multiple people about
$CRCL, and it seems like people either get the thesis or don't get it at all.
That’s exactly why I think there’s still huge asymmetric upside here. IMO, there are many reasons to buy
$CRCL and hold it.
For normies looking to get exposure to the crypto bull market, they’re more likely to buy crypto equity proxies (or maybe majors) than shitcoins. They want companies with fundamentals where the stock price can reflect underlying business growth.
The leaders of crypto equities are
$CRCL,
$HOOD,
$COIN, and
$MSTR.
$COIN feels more like the last-cycle runner that went 10x from bottom to top. It will obviously benefit from the next bull market and higher USDC circulation because of the Circle partnership, but I think
$CRCL is a more interesting option.
Trading is still one of the biggest drivers of USDC circulation today. When the next bull market returns, onchain trading activity will expand dramatically. At the same time,
$CRCL is diversifying beyond its Coinbase partnership and building additional business lines that give it more leverage to the broader onchain economy.
And we already know how volatile
$CRCL can be. It can drop 50% in a month, but it can also 2x in a month. And we haven’t even entered what I would consider the real bull market yet.
At current levels, I think the r/r remains asymmetric, as Circle is still relatively low-market-cap compared to exchanges, majors, and traditional payment companies.
This cycle, exchanges are putting significant effort into moving assets onchain, pre-IPOs, RWA stocks, etc., and have benefited from increasing onchain activity.
$CRCL should also be inherently benefiting from this trend.
So can USDC keep its market share?
The stock gets punished hard whenever new stablecoin competition emerges, just as we saw with the “Open USD” announcement in June this year.
But I think people underestimate the network effects behind USDC and USDT.
Yes, we’ll see more types of stablecoins. Financial institutions will launch their own, and companies may create closed-loop stablecoin for their ecosystems.
But those are more like merchants issuing their own gift cards. USDC and USDT are more like general-purpose digital dollars, each dominating a different world.
For now, if someone wants to hold a stablecoin, move capital onchain, or onboard into the crypto financial system, USDC remains one of the most obvious and accessible choices.
And even if USDC loses some market share, the stablecoin market itself can still grow massively.
The pie is getting bigger.
Think about how much of the world’s retail and institutional capital is still not onboarded onto blockchain infrastructure.
^This should alleviate the overstated fear if any relevant headwinds hit.
If you believe the crypto bull market is coming back, I think
$CRCL is an interesting medium-term hold.
Longer term, I’m still thinking about the agentic economy. I haven’t dug deeply enough into that yet, so let’s not discuss that for now.
For now, multiple accounts of mine have
$CRCL positions. I somehow bought them at different times earlier this year, and I just opened a dedicated 100% portfolio diversification account for
$CRCG.
Even if it retraces, when I think about opportunity cost + upside + the timing of the broader crypto cycle, I still think the setup is attractive.
Let’s see. Worst case scenario is just to lose some money.