I have reversed engineered the formulas in @ColeMacro table, which I will not be providing, and graphed the resulting convexity. It reveals three very different regimes: LOW AMPLIFICATION -> 0–35% Returns rise, but the curve remains relatively flat. Amplification adds value, but it has not yet become the dominant driver of common-shareholder returns. Conservative CONVEXITY ZONE ->35–70% The curve begins bending upward rapidly. Each additional unit of amplification produces progressively greater incremental return. This is where amplification starts overwhelming relatively small differences in cost of capital. SWEET SPOT ASYMPTOTIC ZONE ->70–100% This is not merely “parabolic.” Mathematically, it is asymptotic. As amplification approaches 100%, the remaining denominator approaches zero and modeled returns accelerate dramatically. The curve approaches a vertical asymptote at 100% amplification but never reaches it. RISKY That distinction matters. A parabola simply gets steeper. An asymptotic function is approaching a mathematical boundary. And that matches @PunterJeff risk observation: 100% amplification is effectively unattainable because the denominator cannot practically be driven to zero. So the objective is not simply: maximize amplification. It is: Operate as far up the convexity curve as the capital structure can sustainably support and return to ASST shareholders. That is where the mathematics and the risk management meet. @Strive is working on a different level. Plan accordingly. BULLISH
This matrix explains one of the most important concepts in Bitcoin treasury strategy: amplification ratio is what drives total returns. Over 99% of the variation in modeled total returns shown here is driven by amplification ratio. Cost of capital matters far less than investors realize. Strive’s objective is to outperform Bitcoin by maximizing total returns for common shareholders. Our base case is that Bitcoin compounds at roughly 50% annually through 2030, but the principle applies more broadly. If any Bitcoin bull thesis plays out, building and sustaining a high amplification ratio will be the most important determinant of success. That is why we spent the bear market intentionally building liquidity, earning investor trust in SATA and Strive, deepening our access to capital, and building the foundation required to support a high amplification ratio at scale. Maintaining amplification as Bitcoin compounds will require increasingly large amounts of capital and sustained investor trust, and will be extraordinarily difficult to achieve. If possible, I would like to bring Strive’s amplification ratio above 60% later this year. If our warrants exercise over the next few weeks, getting there will require elite execution from our team. It becomes even more difficult if Bitcoin rallies further. I believe our team can achieve that goal, and that Strive is uniquely positioned to sustain a high amplification ratio at scale. The math tells you what matters, and our strategy follows the math. If I were analyzing Strive as a Bitcoin bull seeking to amplify Bitcoin returns, these are the questions I would be asking: What is Strive’s current amplification ratio? What are our goals for amplification? And to achieve those goals, do we have the capital access, liquidity and investor trust required to maintain a high amplification ratio throughout a bull market? There is real alpha in understanding the answers to those questions. Study the matrix carefully.

Sep 29, 2026 · 6:06 PM UTC

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Hey @VetteVector how about log:log scale?
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So as I understand it, being near or on/under the 200WMA is the asymptotic zone where you take maximum risk, and then the further the price rises above 200WMA you want to reduce risk by reducing amplification.
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Yes. Amplification goes down as Bitcoin goes up. When Bitcoin rips higher, DOUBLES in a month, it would be prudent to REDUCE amplification.
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I’ve never seen an analysis more bullish.
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Thanks for sharing this
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This chart doesn’t make any sense. You can’t get 10,000x returns in 4 years with BTC compounded only 50% a year. That implies buying more than 21m BTC. I see this error a lot with BPS yield projections
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Great post Grain Most of yours are truly but this one really highlights my thoughts about operating as high on the convexity curve as is responsible
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Dang, I need to buy more of this stuff.
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Hearing Matt's comments you realize with specifically the way Strive is driving it's amplification that the Amp they attain is what the market is Allowing them to have. If SATA investors consider the amp too high they respond with less volume lowering ability to ATM. If they consider it low we see more volumes, more ATM and amp rises. In essence Stives amp can tell us a lot regarding the markets confidence in the balance sheet and management during the current state in Bitcoins oscillations.
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very bullish 😀
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