GP @Dragonfly | Investor @polymarket @raincards @meshpay @hiddenroadhq @withAUSD @sapiom @velocityxyz_ & many more | Previously GoldenTree, Goldman, others
New York
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- Following 2,270
- Followers 16,926
- Likes 13,941
Almost every time I mention to someone that 55% of American adults take 0 flights a year they have to recheck the data multiple times before they accept it.
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Rob Hadick ＞|＜ retweeted
Polymarket: the information edge.
Next week at TOKEN2049 Institutional, @shayne_coplan (@Polymarket) sits down with @hadickm (@dragonfly).
Thu 8 Oct · Institutional Stage
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Dragonfly GP @HadickM says your AI agent may end up choosing your bank for you, and today it’s more likely to recommend Mercury than JPMorgan:
"It seems quite unlikely to me that anything built on top of Plaid is going to be able to do a lot of mass movement on a regular basis of any sort of money."
"What I think is more likely to be true is that you'll have a bank that's agent first."
"If you ask your LLM what bank should you use that is agent friendly, they'll tell you Mercury. They won't tell you JPMorgan."
"A financial institution that controls those different accounts and is able to monetize those different accounts, that is AI first and agent first, that is where you're likely to see a lot of this happen."
@dragonfly
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Dragonfly GP @HadickM on why personal agents like "Instinct" have no moat:
"I think these products have no lock-in whatsoever."
"Those users are mostly power users here in Silicon Valley, and are mostly the types of people who are willing to experiment. They're also the types of people who are willing to go use a new chat agent, a new model, with the drop of a hat."
"Noah went on a different podcast last week. He talked about, 'Oh, we're doing a billion dollars of volume very quickly.' Well, a billion dollars of volume is actually quite small in terms of the ability to make money."
"The second Muse dropped, you could tell that Muse, because they had better access to compute, was operating more quickly."
"My expectation is that, over time, people will just move from agent to agent, and they will move from whatever and however things are working the best."
"I actually think agents inside your financial applications will be much more important than agents like these in the ability to capture value."
@dragonfly
On this topic, playing around with Muse this weekend and asking it and Instinct to do the same tasks, and Instinct is noticeably (sometimes SIGNIFICANTLY) slower and runs into more problems for the same or similar tasks - clearly compute constrained relatively, which is unsurprising. With more competition incoming, it's pretty clear that these types of consumer first agents are going to require other lock in that isn't just "great experience and some context" and the willingness to burn capital to monetize elsewhere will be needed.
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Catch me today talking about the future of finance at 1:30pst
MTS is live and here's what we're talking about this morning:
- Jay Clayton becomes AI czar
- The "grassroots rebellion" occurring in the AI industry
- Ro Khanna's claim that the U.S. and China need to sign a treaty
- Broadcom deploys another $60 billion for Anthropic
Following this up with some excellent guests on the show today:
- @AndrewYang Founder of the Forward Party talking about UBI, AI's impact on jobs and the third wave of philanthropy
- @danrobinson General Partner & Head of Research at Paradigm talking about Pace, their game on the race dynamics between AI labs
- @patio11 Advisor to Stripe & writer at Bits about Money talking about how good the models have suddenly gotten & his thoughts on AI more broadly
- @ml_angelopoulos Co-founder & CEO of Arena talking about Gemini 4 Argon taking the #1 spot and the recent pace of model development
- @RayanKrishnan Co-founder & CEO of Vals AI talking about the Vals Index, the pace of model progress and building benchmarks that don't saturate
- @HadickM General Partner at Dragonfly talking about where AI and banking collide
- @KevinTFrazier AI Innovation and Law Fellow at UT Austin Law talking about the White House superintelligence accord and the FTC probe
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Rob Hadick ＞|＜ retweeted
NEW ROUNDUP
We Cover
– Anthropic's leaked S1
– Who becomes AI’s Celsius?
– Why Yano’s buying Backpack
– Was @SBF_FTX a great investor?
– If agents disrupt finance & more!
@JasonYanowitz @santiagoroel @HadickM
TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 Intro
00:58 Silicon Valley’s AI Drama
02:52 What Could Pop AI’s Bubble?
08:49 AI’s Boom Vs The Debt Markets
12:33 Will Compute Demand Keep Growing?
15:53 The Economics Behind AI Compute
21:23 Is Crypto’s Bull Market Back?
30:29 Was SBF Actually A Great Investor?
37:22 Crypto’s Regulatory And Funding Shift
41:42 Is Crypto Growth Different This Time?
48:24 Will AI Agents Disrupt Finance?
54:00 Content Of The Week
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Yup
Rain is responsible for the launch of 200+ crypto cards over the last year.
notable names include:
Kast, EtherFi, Karta, Plasma, Western Union, MoneyGram, Tangem, Jupiter, XPlace, Moto, Tria, Payy, Avici, Kosh, Oobit, Tuyo, Avalanche, Ethena, Altitude, Whop, Kolo, Exa, Peanut, Lava, Reah, Solid + many more.
they practically birthed the entire industry of crypto neobanks that we see today.
before Rain, launching a card program was incredibly difficult and required hundreds of thousands of dollars in upfront capital.
now companies can plug into their infra and get a card program live for under $100k in a matter of weeks.
they completely lowered the barrier of entry required to launch a fintech.
truly one of the most innovative companies in the space.
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Rob Hadick ＞|＜ retweeted
Super excited to announce that Lisa Mantil has joined Polymarket to grow our Institutional business.
Polymarket is only the second job of Lisa's career. She spent 27 years at @GoldmanSachs rising through the ranks to Partner, where her specialty was understanding what institutional clients needed and building the financial products to deliver it. That's the sauce she's bringing to Polymarket, and we're grateful to have her.
If you're interested in taking large size in any event contract relevant to your business or portfolio, DM me or email institutional@polymarket.com.
Thank you to Cyril and @DavidSolomon for the intro and recommendation. Onwards.
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Rob Hadick ＞|＜ retweeted
NEW ROUNDUP
We Cover:
– Markets sending w/o CLARITY
– Consensus trades winning
– Is $META’s AI bet underpriced?
– Why crypto’s 1st movers lose
– Who captures tokenization’s value?
@JasonYanowitz @santiagoroel @HadickM
TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 Intro
00:58 Blockworks’ Origins And Crypto’s Red Flags
05:08 Crypto Ripping Without CLARITY?
09:41 Can Consensus Coins Keep Winning?
13:18 Why Dragonfly Shifted Toward Equity
20:48 Is Meta’s AI Bet Underpriced?
33:26 Why Crypto’s First Movers Lost
36:29 Blockworks’ DAS Asia And Unified API
39:08 Who Captures Tokenization’s Value?
46:42 Content Of The Week
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Ethena is partnering with @Binance as our first venue for the extension of the basis trade into equity perpetuals, one of the most exciting updates to the USDe collateral backing since launch.
This expands the addressable market of underlying collateral from $2.5 trillion of crypto to $150 trillion+ of real-world assets.
As part of the partnership, bStocks will serve as tokenized spot collateral, hedged with Binance USDT-denominated equity perpetuals - the same delta-neutral structure Ethena has securely executed across crypto assets since inception.
Importantly, Binance provides lower ADL priority for eligible delta-neutral accounts including Ethena's, adding another layer of risk mitigation for USDe holders.
Binance equity basis has averaged ~11%+ annualized over the past 6 months, while open interest has grown on average ~30% per month in the last 3 month period.
We expect the market opportunity size for equity perpetuals to far exceed the $15b+ of crypto perpetuals captured by Ethena last cycle.
Allocations begin today.
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Super excited to have @contrarycap5 joining the team. He brings an incredible mix of experience investing across both traditional technology and financial services, as well as deep expertise in defi and on chain markets.
The future of money, markets and intelligence is being rapidly redefined and the opportunity set has never been more exciting.
I'm excited to join @DragonflyVC on the investment team
For years crypto has been the driving force in my life
I've become a clearer thinker, because permisionless capital aggregates around the best ideas and what drives attention
I've met countless new people both online and off, some of whom I'm lucky to call my closest friends
Crypto represents the most pure, reflexive form of capital markets, and I strongly believe the most transformational companies, products and protocols will follow
Working with @HadickM @hosseeb @tomhschmidt @KawageboF47481 @0xsudogm @0xelton and the rest of the Dragonfly team is an honor, one which I am very grateful for
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Congrats Jed on the public launch of Fund II!
1/ We’ve closed Breed VC Fund II, a $15M early-stage fund.
We back the founders bold enough to rebuild the world we see today and return sovereignty to users.
@breed_vc
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Rob Hadick ＞|＜ retweeted
Introducing real-time funding.
Connect an existing wallet directly to your stablecoin card.
Your wallet balance now powers your card spend in real time.
No separate balance to manage.
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I have been told I’m not allowed to use the word “mogged” anymore but it felt right in this instance
"I just actually bought a bunch of $META this week"
While other AI leaders debate slowing down, Zuck is accelerating.
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Huge congrats to @Nick_van_Eck @drakeevans and the whole Agora team on getting their preliminary OCC trust approval. The future of banking and payments lies in stablecoin and AI first digital businesses, like Agora, that are able to plug into and bridge the gap between traditional systems and an age of new financial primitives.
Agora has received preliminary conditional approval from the OCC to organize as a national trust bank. A defining early milestone on the path to a full charter for Agora and regulated stablecoin infrastructure. agora.finance/blog/occ-condi…
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Rob Hadick ＞|＜ retweeted
We're excited to announce our 2026 Midterms Hub.
Watch the odds shift before the polls on America's #1 most accurate election forecast.
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Rob Hadick ＞|＜ retweeted
NEW ROUNDUP
We Cover:
– Regulators move w/o CLARITY
– Many stablecoin debate
– $CRCL launching Arc
– Why Yano bought $META
– Polymarket’s hiring spree & more!
@JasonYanowitz @HadickM
TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 Intro
03:50 Corporate Stablecoin Debate
13:03 Why The CLARITY Act Failed
16:58 The SEC Opens Tokenized Markets
22:43 Who Wins Tokenized Markets?
29:06 S&P Moves Deeper Into Crypto
37:40 Can Circle Make Arc Work?
46:14 Can AI Startups Survive Meta?
51:26 Polymarket’s War For Talent
57:15 Content Of The Week
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Rob Hadick ＞|＜ retweeted
Calling all crypto twitter.
I'm proud to announce that Jacob Horne @js_horne has joined Polymarket. He will be working closely with me on product, in particular making Polymarket DeFi great again.
Jacob is amongst the best product and innovation minds in crypto. Before this, he was CEO of Zora. He built multiple beautiful products (I was one of the first users of the first version in 2020). Now he's got the PMF and distribution of Polymarket. I'm so excited to work with him.
We'll be hosting a Polymarket DeFi town hall soon to hear from our longtime users and lay out the plan to make the Polymarket DeFi product the best it’s ever been. In the meantime, DM your feedback to @js_horne or me and we'll action it.
To the DeFi community, we know the performance of the onchain product has waned as we've scaled, and it hurts us to hear the frustration of the people who love Polymarket and have supported us for so long thinking we’ve pivoted all focus to US, but just know we're working behind the scenes to unify the products and make Polymarket better than ever, across all surface areas.
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