And finally… the author copies have arrived! It’s a great feeling to hold the finished book after such a long process. The Axis of Resistance: Iran, Israel and the Struggle for the Middle East UK & EU: May 8 | US & North America: July 14 @politybooks

Joined Background Briefing with Ian Masters to discuss #Iran’s strategic adaptation amid the conflict with the U.S. and the prospects for a resumption of the war. soundcloud.com/user-83044263…

Iran says Strait of Hormuz will not reopen until conditions are met reut.rs/4rNOYPW

Here’s a model to help think through why the US and Iran are struggling to reach a deal to end the war. Since the outset of the fighting, both sides have mainly tried to use economic pressure to push the other towards what they consider a “fair” settlement of the conflict. But the economic pressure accumulates differently for each country. Iran must experience much higher levels of pressure to consider a diplomatic settlement with the Trump administration. But unlike for the US, there is also a point on Iran’s pressure “frontier” when a deal becomes less likely. In short, Iran is too far along its curve. The experience of “maximum pressure” sanctions, the blockade, and the war have undermined confidence that a deal is possible. This is why Iran is seeking an interim arrangement. They want US to walk back the pressure, allowing the two sides to return to the “deal window.” The problem is that the Trump administration doesn’t seem to understand this model—they neither accept the diminishing returns of more economic pressure nor its counterproductive impact on the prospects for a deal.

RT @BabakVahdad: Mohammad Bagher Haji-Babaei, Deputy Speaker of Iran’s Parliament: “Negotiations with the Americans are currently underway…

🚨 Our latest global conflict update is out. We break down seven conflict risk alerts in October, including Ethiopia, Yemen and Pakistan. Find out the latest updates in our new edition of CrisisWatch: crisisgroup.org/crisiswatch/…

No mention of vessels still being struck

NEW: Rebels in charge in Sana'a. A bloody Yemeni civil war on the horizon. Neighboring Saudi Arabia backing status quo forces who want to oust the rebels. English-speaking foreigners getting involved. Familiar enough? In this week's Old News: the downfall of the Zaydi Imamate

Interesting piece on the evolving regional dynamics since the war. @HamidRezaAz explains how the Gulf states are engaging Iran while not showing any willingness to accept Iranian control over the Strait in exchange for short term peace.

My latest for @AlMonitor "A deadly clash between Iranian security forces and militants in Sistan-Baluchestan province has brought renewed attention to a long-running Baluch insurgency." Comments @BabakVahdad @AbdullahKhan333 Naade Ali, Junaid Javeed al-monitor.com/originals/202…

The problem is that it would take a lot of boots to cover enough ground to make a real difference. And what he will probably lose in the process is the “legacy” he’s been trying to build for himself.

This may give Trump a false sense of security re: risk to #oil market of renewed air campaign. US also has depleted 2/3 of our Patriot arsenal already. #Iran is capable of making our oil problem a lot worse. #IranWar

Finished reading @HamidRezaAz’s book and I highly recommend others to also read it, especially if you work on the Middle East as an analyst, journalist, or open source investigator.

Iran’s new strategy toward the United States is “defined by escalation and continuous offense,” writes Mohammad Ayatollahi Tabaar. “The regime is committed to responding forcefully to any American provocation, and perhaps even attacking without one.” foreignaffairs.com/united-st…

NEW: Its' hardly surprising that Iran's government and conservative media are lashing out at the UAE for hosting Netanyahu, especially amid an ongoing conflict. What piques more interest is the cross-partisan negative view of UAE. That's not going away. amwaj.media/en/media-monitor…

RT @Rob_Malley: Read this @CrisisGroup Commentary to understand how shuttle runs through the Strait of Hormuz may be diminishing Iran’s lev…

RT @BabakVahdad: Iran has categorically denied Bloomberg’s report on the alleged nuclear component of the ongoing Iran-US contacts. - An i…

RT @AliVaez: Iran’s foreign minister suggested in private talks that his country was willing to restore nuclear inspectors’ access to bombe…

RT @HamidRezaAz: Told @Reuters that #Iran's leaders remain uncertain whether Trump would launch another major campaign ​or opt for more lim…

Who are #Iran's ‘trustees’ really allied to? note: sanctions feed corruption while ordinary folks suffer amwaj.media/en/article/who-a… via @amwajmedia

RT @HamidRezaAz: It was a pleasure to join @RolandOliphant on @Telegraph’s podcast "Iran: The Latest" to discuss the prospects for escalati…