For the benefit of humanity, the markets should tank hard and prevent the OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs.

Super excited to announce that Lisa Mantil has joined Polymarket to grow our Institutional business. Polymarket is only the second job of Lisa's career. She spent 27 years at @GoldmanSachs rising through the ranks to Partner, where her specialty was understanding what institutional clients needed and building the financial products to deliver it. That's the sauce she's bringing to Polymarket, and we're grateful to have her. If you're interested in taking large size in any event contract relevant to your business or portfolio, DM me or email institutional@polymarket.com. Thank you to Cyril and @DavidSolomon for the intro and recommendation. Onwards.

It cost me $155.85 to put gas in my F-150 this morning

Bitcoin up or down? 15 minute crypto up/downs are now live in the Polymarket US app. Let the bull season begin 📈

$META is up 26% this month it's still "cheap". VALUATION (from @FASTGraphs): Blended P/E: 26.50x Normal P/E: 31.44x Growth rate: 29.11% META trades at roughly the same multiple as the S&P 500 with higher growth and a better track record than most companies in the index. THE BUSINESS: Meta sells advertising against the attention of more than 3 billion daily users across Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp and Messenger. That business runs at an operating margin above 40%, and it funds everything else the company does, including one of the world's largest AI infrastructure buildouts. Most of the debate about Meta is about spending and what P/E multiple investors should be willing to pay. THE FUNDAMENTALS (2022 to 2025): Revenue: $116.6B to $201.0B (19.89% CAGR) Net income: $23.2B to $60.5B (37.60% CAGR) Operating cash flow: $50.5B to $115.8B (31.88% CAGR) Operating margin: 28.78% to 41.44% Return on equity: 18.60% to 30.56% Return on invested capital: 18.82% to 26.43% Net income grew nearly twice as fast as revenue. Operating margin expanded almost 13 points in three years. EPS HISTORY: 2012: $0.53 2025: $23.49 Analyst estimates: $31.49 in 2026, $33.75 in 2027, $39.18 in 2028 Since 2011: EPS are up 5,574.94% with the price up 1,933.88%. For comparison, the S&P 500 EPS is up 220.35% over the same period. THE SCENARIOS (from @FASTGraphs): $10,000 invested at $777.59 buys 12.86 shares. If META holds its current 26.50x multiple and earnings grow at the 13.59% CAGR analysts model through 2028, the Forecasting tab shows $13,420 including dividends. Total return 34.20%, or 13.84% annualized. No multiple expansion required. If it returns to its 31.44x Normal P/E on the same estimates: 2028 EPS of $39.18 times 31.44 is $1,231.82 per share, about 58% total. Look at what those estimates assume. The 13.59% forward EPS growth is roughly a third of the 37.60% net income CAGR of the last three years. And 2027 is modeled at 7%, sitting between 34% in 2026 and 16% in 2028. If growth lands closer to recent history, the estimates are too low, which could result in better performance from the stock. These are not predictions. They show how the Forecasting tab in FAST Graphs lets you see what different multiples and growth rates would produce, using analyst estimates that can be wrong. THE CATCH: Net investing cash flow went from $29.0B in 2022 to $102.0B in 2025. That is nearly all of the $115.8B in operating cash flow going back into data centers, and cash on hand fell $6.3B for the year. LT debt-to-capital rose from 16.84% to 27.31%. 2025 EPS came in at $23.49, down 2%, the first decline since 2022. The market is pricing META as if the $100B+ of annual capex is permanent. If it is, and the return on it never shows up in earnings, then the stock would likely be re-rated to a lower P/E multiple. If capex normalizes, $115.8B of operating cash flow stops being consumed by investment, and free cash flow changes dramatically. This is the beauty of FAST Graphs. It gives you the tools to quickly understand a business's fundamentals and test different scenarios based on whatever future projections you want. If you enjoy these quick dives, be sure to follow @FASTGraphs and reply below with a stock you want us to review.

JUST IN: Mark Zuckerberg declares everyone will have a personal AI agent that “intimately understands you” within 5 years.

BREAKING: 𝕏 users are reporting being "financially DDOS'd" with tens of thousands of dollars being sent to them unsolicited via 𝕏 money.

$HEI turned $10,000 into more than $13 million since 1990 and most investors have never heard of it. VALUATION (from @FASTGraphs): Blended P/E: 49.61x Normal P/E: 41.68x Fair Value Ratio: 17.86x (P/E set equal to the 17.86% long term earnings growth rate) EPS yield: 2.02% Since December 2005 the price is up 6,386% and earnings are up 3,315%. Investors today are paying roughly double the multiple they paid in 2005 Over 20 years the stock compounded at 20.71% a year against 9.84% for the S&P 500. This is a long-term winner but the question investors have to ask is what P/E multiple does the business deserve moving forward? THE BUSINESS: When an airline needs a replacement part for a jet engine, the original manufacturer sets the price, and most of the manufacturer's profit is in those parts, not the new engine. HEICO reverse engineers the part, gets the FAA to approve it, and sells it for 30 to 50% less. It is the world's largest independent maker of FAA-approved jet engine replacement parts, and it owns a second business making electronics for defense, space and medical customers. In 1990 it was a struggling company with one approved part, one factory in Hollywood, Florida, $26 million in revenue and a market cap about the same size. Laurans Mendelson and his sons Eric and Victor became the largest shareholders and took control. They have made close to 100 acquisitions since, usually buying from founders and usually leaving them with a stake, and the largest was Wencor for $2 billion in 2023. Lufthansa's maintenance arm has owned 20% of the replacement parts subsidiary since 1997, which tells you what the customers think of the product. Laurans died last September at 87. Eric and Victor, who have run the company day to day since 2009, are now co-chairmen and co-CEOs. Berkshire Hathaway took a small position in 2024. THE FUNDAMENTALS (2022 to 2025): Revenue: $2.21B to $4.49B (26.63% CAGR) Gross income: $939M to $1.91B (26.65% CAGR) Net income: $352M to $690M (25.21% CAGR) Operating cash flow: $468M to $934M (25.92% CAGR) Operating margin: 22.10% to 22.44% Return on equity: 14.43% to 17.09% Return on invested capital: 15.02% to 12.80% LT debt/capital: 12.23% to 34.47% FG Score: 89/100 Revenue doubled in three years. Gross margin was 42.5% at the start and 42.5% at the end, and operating margin held above 22% while the company digested the largest deal it has ever done which increased long term debt to capital from 12.23% to 44.61% in one year. However, debt has come down every year since. Return on invested capital fell from 15.02% to 12.80% because the capital base got much bigger, and the 53/100 Financial Strength in the FG score is the result of the deal on $HEI's balance sheet. EPS HISTORY: 2007: $0.30 2012: $0.66 2017: $1.37 2019: $2.39 2021: $2.21 2023: $2.91 2025: $4.90 2026 estimate: $6.32 2027 estimate: $7.13 2028 estimate: $7.99 THE CATCH: The P/E multiple is basically at an all-time-high. At 49.61x, HEICO trades 19% above its own 20 year Normal P/E of 41.68x, which is already a rich multiple for 17.86% long term growth. On the Forecasting tab, which uses the 13.07% growth analysts expect from here instead of the 20 year record, the Fair Value Ratio is 15x. But the price has been above that orange line for more than a decade. Here is what $7.99 of 2028 earnings is worth in October 2028 depending only on the multiple the market pays. If today's multiple of 49.61x holds: $396, up 29% If it trades at its 20-year normal P/E of 41.68x: $333, up 9% If the multiple contracts down to 22.50x: $180, down 41% If it trades down to the 15.00x Fair Value Ratio: $120, down 61% HEICO reported a record quarter on August 25: sales up 23%, net income up 33%, cash from operations up 49%. But the stock is down about 13% since. Earnings grew and the price fell, which is an example of multiple compression.

The amount of compute in space will obviously round up to 100% of all compute

Last night, I predicted $META would be flat to down today following Meta Connect. The stock closed up 4.5%. What I missed was the significance of Zuck’s comment that Muse will be the centerpiece of Meta. That comment reveals Zuckerberg is in wartime CEO mode, willing to throw out the existing architecture and rebuild the company as an agentic, AI-first business. That drive raises the probability of success and lays the foundation for a re-rating of shares.