$200 trade idea for
$ONDS
ONDS is down 6% today to $8.38 on ~60M shares — and nothing in the feed explains it. Last headlines were bullish (Aran Defense deal, Oppenheimer to $18). You’re sitting just under the $8.50 put wall, still a tick above the 50-day ($8.24), RSI 48. Dealers are in a positive-gamma / dampening regime; expected range is only $8.04–$8.72. Chasing this dump with puts is the wrong side of that.
I’d fade it with calls, not ride it with puts.
Plan: 4× the Sep 4 $8.5 calls (~16d). That’s ~$186 of the $200. Strike is the put wall you just lost — reclaim $8.50 and those start working. Breakeven is a ~7% bounce, not a moonshot. Skip the 9-day 8.5s the screener ranked higher: after a no-news 6% day you need room for chop, not a 9-day binary.
If you want more time: 4× the Sep 18 $9 calls. That’s the liquid strike (17k OI), full $200, breakeven sits right on the gamma flip (~$9.57) with the $10 call wall above it. Slower, needs a bigger move, less likely to die in a two-day grind.
IV is ~76–79%. You’re paying up for the dump. Size is 4 contracts, not 6–8 of the cheap weeklies — $200 is the max loss, not a license to lever the short-dated ones.
Puts ($8 and $7.5) are the fade I’d skip: you’d need another 7–15% down just to break even, into a dampening tape that already did 6% with no catalyst.
If it closes under $8.17 (today’s low) and the 50-day, the bounce thesis is wrong — don’t average.