RT @carmella_nicole: “Waymo. Stop, Waymo” I’m fkn CRINE:

I cannot reconcile the significant insider buying at $celh w/Bloom’s scanner data, clear shelf space gains, & social momentum. Plus freight headwind Alani LTOs (witches brew) are doing well/slight accel but core CELH doesn’t have accel potential until Q1 Too much risk I think

Consumer Discretionary sector just turned in its biggest month of underperformance (vs the S&P500) in > 15 years

Does anyone have any non AI stocks that are actually going to work? <$10B mkt cap and with some kind of catalyst. Feels like nothing is working and everything is a land mine

The median stock trades 16% below its 52-Week high. Weakest level since the Dot-Com Bubble. Source: GS Market Breadth

BTIG's Jonathan Krinsky says the divergence in the positive performance of the S&P 500 and extremely weak breadth is "unsustainable." "Something's gotta give," he says. Krinsky calculated that there have been only 25 other days “that had less than 50% of S&P 500 stocks above their 200-DMA [while] the SPX itself was closer to a 52-week.” All of those took place between 1998 and 2000, in the middle of the dot-com bubble. Krinsky also said that Friday completed a ninth consecutive day in which S&P 500 constituents’ 52-week lows were greater than their 52-week highs, while the index was within 2% of its recent peak. That has happened only three times since 1990, he said: in December 1999; January 2000; and now. Krinsky goes on to note that it's been 213 days since the NYSE registered an 80% or more downside volume day (i.e., very widespread sell-off). The average calendar year contains 21 such days, and there’s never been a year with fewer than five, he added. “While the constant rotation has kept us from seeing a correlation-one selloff, we continue to think the clock is ticking, and we see one sooner than later,” says Krinsky.

One for the bears? Equity issuance has soared. It did this in early 2000 and again in 2021.

Why shouldn’t I look at $PLNT?

The average US stock is struggling. The ratio of the equal-weighted S&P 500 to the S&P 500 index is down to 1.11, its 3rd-lowest level since April 2003. This ratio has declined for 5 consecutive weeks by a total of -5.5%. Over this period, the equal-weighted S&P 500 has fallen -4.4% while the S&P 500 has increased by +0.8%. This also puts the ratio on track for its 4th consecutive annual decline, the longest streak since 1999. By comparison, this metric peaked at 1.60 in April 2015. AI is carrying the entire stock market.

Serious answer: yes. Before joining Microsoft, I knew maybe five people who used Copilot. I lived in a San Francisco tech bubble, and all of us worked at companies with fewer than 5,000 employees. Microsoft 365 Copilot now has over 30 million paid seats and is growing fast. It's also a significant market penetration if you look at the number of seats / knowledge workers in Enterprises Working at MSFT has made me understand why. Large companies need AI that works with their existing data and meets their privacy and compliance requirements, often across multiple countries. Add governments and regulated industries, and it gets even more complex. Copilot can handle that. So people use Copilot for real work, and yes, most people love it. I use it every day now: Copilot CLI for coding (with access to models from Gemini, OpenAI, xAI and Anthropic!) + Copilot Cowork for regular chat Etc. I’ve been happy with it. I think the perception gap on this website comes from the San Francisco tech bubble. If you’re a tech bro like me, you mostly know people at smaller companies. You don’t see much of the enterprise world where Copilot is used.