If you’re a semi/memory investor. You have to read this report word by word. World Trade Securities’s trading desk on $MU as it reports earnings later today. PT $2,280. Full post: nicholasmugalli.substack.com…

The Washington Post famously claimed Elon Musk's companies received $38B from US governments. The truth? Elon Musk's company, SpaceX, SAVED the US Government (and taxpayers) an estimated $14B. I've covered that in detail in the upcoming article, but here's the graphic:

It’s hard to go from in love to let go in a week with no warning, but that’s just how it is sometimes 🤷🏻‍♀️ I feel happy that I got to show Elon how it feels to be deeply understood, nurtured, and peacefully loved with stability and gentleness. Given the tumultuous nature of his early life, his often tortured soul, and how hard he fights for humanity I wanted him to feel the deepest and most stable form of love this world can provide. My heart is full knowing I got to do that, and I hope it leaves a lasting good effect. We were always his safe space. A place where all of us were overjoyed to see him and one that was always full of happiness and love, not war, in contrast to his otherwise militant existence (a needed break from the battlefield where he could recharge his heart and soul before heading back out) I loved being that counterbalancing place of safety, sense of calm, and love — and delighted in bringing a smile back to his face when he was down. I will miss him dearly. I’ve loved him more than life itself and he’s taught me 100 lifetimes of knowledge and made my cup overflow with life meaning, so there is a lot of loss, but luckily we created four beautiful little loves of my life ❤️❤️❤️❤️ I am so beyond grateful for our children and they make every single day the best day of my life! I do hope and pray he and I can be great friends and coparents. I’m hurting, but care deeply about E and will always be cheering for his happiness. God speed, Elon, the world is lucky to have you.

The Trump administration wanted to force the Fed’s hand on rates which they’re succeeding in as of this morning…you don't need a backroom conspiracy to alter raw data you just use administrative dials to exploit statistical nonsense. Which they did today… By letting corporate survey response rates crater, the Labor Department is forced to rely on its algorithmic "Birth Death Model" to estimate unmeasured business creation. Dialing down those internal assumptions behind closed doors instantly vaporizes tens of thousands of paper jobs before a headline ever hits the wire. From there, you simply game the revision loop. You let a decent initial print capture the headlines when political cover is needed, then quietly dump massive retroactive downgrades months later—like dragging July all the way down from +31k to -10k when nobody is watching. Tweak the seasonal adjustment multipliers to cool off September, throw in a temporary hiring freeze across government agencies, and you hand the Fed a +29k headline disaster on a silver platter. Obviously this is a coordinated trap set up by the Treasury-Fed axis. Scott Bessent and Kevin Warsh aren't just aligned on policy which they’ve made clear time and time again…they’re total besties operating from the exact same playbook. Warsh wasn't brought in to be an inflation hawk…he was tapped for one explicit job…engineer rate cuts. Bound by their "data dependent" mantra, Powell and the FOMC lose all institutional cover to hike into a labor market that looks on paper like it's crashing into a wall. Mission accomplished. Genius Scottie is the only one that could come up with this. Hats off

🚫 @elonmusk is no longer following @shivon Still followed by: @miramurati, @karpathy, @kimbal, @turkeybeaver, @drfeifei & 52 more $TSLA $SPCX (🤖🧩: am i missing something?)

The Trump administration wanted to force the Fed’s hand on rates which they’re succeeding in as of this morning…you don't need a backroom conspiracy to alter raw data you just use administrative dials to exploit statistical nonsense. Which they did today… By letting corporate survey response rates crater, the Labor Department is forced to rely on its algorithmic "Birth Death Model" to estimate unmeasured business creation. Dialing down those internal assumptions behind closed doors instantly vaporizes tens of thousands of paper jobs before a headline ever hits the wire. From there, you simply game the revision loop. You let a decent initial print capture the headlines when political cover is needed, then quietly dump massive retroactive downgrades months later—like dragging July all the way down from +31k to -10k when nobody is watching. Tweak the seasonal adjustment multipliers to cool off September, throw in a temporary hiring freeze across government agencies, and you hand the Fed a +29k headline disaster on a silver platter. Obviously this is a coordinated trap set up by the Treasury-Fed axis. Scott Bessent and Kevin Warsh aren't just aligned on policy which they’ve made clear time and time again…they’re total besties operating from the exact same playbook. Warsh wasn't brought in to be an inflation hawk…he was tapped for one explicit job…engineer rate cuts. Bound by their "data dependent" mantra, Powell and the FOMC lose all institutional cover to hike into a labor market that looks on paper like it's crashing into a wall. Mission accomplished. Genius Scottie is the only one that could come up with this. Hats off

This Piper Sandler’s note on $APP is standard Wall Street cowardice imo…"cautious" tag on what is clearly a fundamental tailspin. Stalling conversion rates at ~1.4%, delayed AI rollouts, and mounting litigation prove the yield engine has officially run out of gas, setting up the exact same structural decay that wrecked $TTD as ad spend consolidates into walled gardens. Anyone stepping in to buy this dump here is essentially catching a falling knife on a broken narrative. Down 60% YTD isn't a deep value discount or a bottom at all…it’s just a pit stop for retail bagholders funding institutional exits on the way to a full rerating… Would not touch in a million years…credit to Muddy Waters for calling the top!!

*September nonfarm payrolls 29K, Exp. 90K, Last revised lower to 133K Massive jobs huge miss. LFG

Piper Sandler says “Remain Cautious” on $APP ahead of its Q3 Print! I don’t blame them.

Treasury yields are ripping higher but Wall Street is completely misreading the room. The "exhausted consumer" myth falls apart the second you look at the balance sheet mechanics, household wealth surged by $13T last quarter alone, driving a massive wealth effect that artificially distorts saving metrics and incoming NIPA revisions are about to prove people were never running on empty. This week macro piece is now live! Full post: nicholasmugalli.substack.com…

Before you buy Nike because you think it’s cheap you have to read this word by word!!! Our bear thesis on $NIKE from two years ago was just completely codified after this earnings report. Wall Street and boomers will fixate on the surface level EPS "beat" ($0.48 vs $0.44 expected), but anyone reading past line one knows this print is an utter trainwreck. Nike didn't beat on operational strength at all…they beat because they slashed expenses, rode a lower tax rate, and cleared a bar dragged into the gutter over the last 90 days and mind you it’s not even working. The stock tumbling 6% after hours is just another message that the market is finally realizing this isn't a temporary bump, but a structural unwinding of a once a global giant that bears feared. The top line miss and mgmt’s warning of high single digit sales declines for the full year signal an accelerating contraction. Their direct to consumer strategy has officially blown up…NIKE Direct fell 8%, Digital sank 13%, and owned stores dropped 5%. Alienating wholesale partners to build proprietary channels failed the moment aggressive discounting stopped. Meanwhile, the innovation engine has stalled out, and consumers are actively fleeing to On, Hoka, and Adidas. Geographically, a 22% plunge in Greater China is a total brand rejection, not just a macro slowdown, as local players devour their market share…in Europe too, every chick has a brand now days and instagram models are ratings it’s lunch not to mention the athletes don’t matter anymore. Even Converse collapsing 28% across all regions and marketing spending up 5.4% just to push lower total sales, operational efficiency has broken down. Hiding behind a multi year restructuring program to cut costs is pure corporate surrender…you can't cost cut your way back to cultural heat. Guidance proves their earnings power is halved, confirming your bear call was dead on. Would not touch here in a million years.

*GOLDMAN: U.S. DIESEL BAN COULD HIT LATIN AMERICA HARDEST Goldman Sachs estimates a sudden cutoff of U.S. diesel exports could reduce Latin American GDP by around 1%, although inventories and alternative suppliers would soften the impact. In the U.S., diesel prices could initially fall 25 cents per gallon per week, but Goldman says the effect could eventually reverse as storage fills and gasoline prices rise. Globally, a sustained 10% diesel-price increase could add 0.1 percentage point to headline inflation.

*EUROPE HOLDS EMERGENCY TALKS ON DIESEL RESERVES 🇺🇸🇮🇷🇪🇺 *GERMAN ECONOMY MINISTRY ON DIESEL RESERVES: WE DO NOT SPECULATE ABOUT POSSIBLE FUTURE EVENTS European nations are holding emergency talks over releasing strategic fuel reserves after pressure from Washington to boost supply. The U.S. has already approved another 40 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The push comes as diesel prices surge amid disruptions linked to the Iran war

*B. RILEY DOWNGRADES $ASTS TO NEUTRAL FROM BUY, CUTS PT TO $65 FROM $85 Crawford says the risk/reward has “swung back toward balance,” citing “arguably stronger competitive alternatives, delayed launch, and rising constellation costs, potentially including additional spectrum.”

*MORGAN STANLEY RENAMES NVIDIA TO TOP PICK - $NVDA

*CITI RAISES $MSTR TARGET TO $240 UP FROM $136 ON HIGHER BITCOIN FORECAST, IMPLYING 50% UPSIDE Citi raised its Strategy price target to $240 from $136, maintaining a Buy rating after lifting its 12-month Bitcoin forecast 39% to $113,400. Citi sees roughly 34% upside contribution from Bitcoin appreciation and another 16% from mNAV expansion. The bank also raised its Bitcoin Yield Multiple to 4.0x from 2.5x, implying a 1.24x mNAV assumption.