Data scientist โ MS in CS, stats, biochemistry โ Current Econ MS student โ ๐บ๐ธ๐ฉ๐ช๐ฌ๐ง Policy-centered tweets about tech, bio, urbanism, economics, & politics
Colorado
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The โrun a progressive white working-class manโ strategy is losing to the โrun a moderate Native American womanโ strategy in winning back men.
NYT/Siena poll | 9/24-10/1 LV
US Senate Alaska 2026 (Men)
๐ฆMary Peltola 47%
๐ฅDan Sullivan 45% (incumbent)
Mary Peltola is the only Democratic candidate in the latest batch of NYT/Siena polls who leads with men.
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It's not quite so simple, because Texas is orders of magnitude more expensive and we also need to drag KLB over the line in Georgia.
But I would trade Oregon for Texas like ๐ซฐ
Democratic Governors Association spends millions defending Oregonโs tight gubernatorial race while directing no advertising money to Texas
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Tweeting out the personal cell number of a US Senator from your own party because theyโre holding up a bill that would give your golf courses one extra hour of sunlight ๐
(He is right tho)
Trump has just tweeted out tom cottons cell phone. This is not going to be helpful to trumps cause.
truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTโฆ
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Seems like it might worth sending some money down to Kansas.
How expensive can it be, anyway? These green counties are 64.1% of the state's population.
Sources on the ground in Kansas tell me thereโs a million things he hasnโt done.
The source added: โBut just you wait. Just you wait.โ
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If Hamilton wins in Kansas this year, the nation's 5th longest same-party streak for *any* statewide position will snap.
The GOP has held that seat for the last 108 years.
After a few hours of research, I have found the answer to this question!
The longest winning streak for a political party in one statewide office belongs to the Republicans for winning every single election for North Dakota State Auditor since 1894.
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It would be such incredibly sweet justice if nominating Paxton leads to a true, multi-race blue wave in Texas.
TEXAS POLL By NYT/Siena (A+)
SENATE
๐ฆ James Talarico: 51% (+4)
๐ฅ Ken Paxton: 45% (-2)
โโ
GOVERNOR
๐ฆ Gina Hinojosa: 49% (+5)
๐ฅ Greg Abbott (i): 46% (-5)
9/21-30 | LV | (+/- vs June)
nytimes.com/interactive/pollโฆ
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The NYT just found a *Talarico +6* and *Peltola +7* lead.
Looks like there's a good chance Iowa is a heartbreaker for Dems, and Ohio is probably anyone's game. Kansas is wild.
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Retrospectively, it seems like Dems had a serious chance to flip the governor's mansion in VT had they run a serious campaign.
Janoo has basically no money and is lowkey a glup shitto.
Scott up now by 6.4%, now at 48%. This is looking more like a Lean R race than a Toss-Up, but again we're missing 18-29s pretty much for the raw sample, also some non-college voters. We'll be getting a few hundred more people tomorrow in our survey to balance out our raw sample.
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I do think it's pretty clear Jackson needs help. He's in a shaky race at best.
NEWS โ Bernie Sanders will campaign with Troy Jackson in Maine, per @POLITICO.
Sanders is scheduled to join Jackson for three rallies, beginning October 10.
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Lol. Bottoms is being outraised by Amy Acton, who's in a state of the same size, but 9 points redder.
GA should be a prime Dem flip in this environment but she's just completely sauceless.
Governor โ ad future reservations (Oct 1)
Florida
๐ด GOP: $21.4M
๐ต Dem: $1.3K
Georgia
๐ด GOP: $31.8M
๐ต Dem: $1.6M
Texas
๐ด GOP: $23.3M
๐ต Dem: $790K
Ohio
๐ด GOP: $27.7M
๐ต Dem: $17.9M
Michigan
๐ต Dem: $23.2M
๐ด GOP: $1.2M
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It is the fate of all the world, save Africa (at present) to become a giant care home, lest something shift the fundamental paradigms.
And so it continues... Our economic debates seem utterly disconnected from the reality.
That reality: This is an economy mostly creating healthcare jobs, and it does so month after month, and everything else is just noise.
ALT Line chart titled "Effectively all of the net job creation has been in healthcare and social assistance, and jobs are shrinking in the rest of the economy" showing change in non-farm payrolls since January 2025 through September 2026. Healthcare and social assistance added 998,000 jobs with consistent growth throughout the period, while the rest of the economy lost 222,000 jobs, meaning all net job creation came from healthcare. The rest of the economy showed particular weakness from May through August 2025 when losses reached 218,000 jobs. This striking divergence reveals an unusual concentration where one sector's growth of roughly 48,000 jobs per month has offset persistent contraction across all other industries combined.
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These activists just suck. They are completely unwilling to compromise in any form. And that strategy will get us what we've had before this bill: nothing.
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Wyoming has had a remarkable run of non-crazy, moderate governors, considering it's literally the reddest state in the country.
Freudenthal (a Democrat) โ Matt Mead (very moderate) โ Mark Gordon (moderate) โ Eric Barlow (moderate)
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