The live sports comparison is the strongest part. Music already ran this experiment: recording got cheap, catalogs exploded, and touring became where the money is.
⚡️Movies and TV go the way of music, then further: the cost of making them collapses, the number of them explodes, and the ones that matter become rarer and bigger.
The production side goes first.
Within a few years, feature-quality video gets generated from a script and a few references, and the mid-budget film and the procedural TV show stop making economic sense as human productions. VFX houses, writers' rooms, and the 150-person crew get compressed into a small team directing a machine. Volume goes up a hundredfold. Most of it is watched by almost nobody, same as most music on Spotify.
Then it personalizes.
A show rendered for you, in your language, with your pacing, your ending. That sounds like the future and it's also the trap: when everyone watches a different thing, nothing is shared, and shared is what made media culturally powerful. So the market splits.
What becomes more valuable, the scarce half:
• The shared event. The release everyone watches the same week so they can talk about it. Scarce by construction, and the platforms will manufacture scarcity on purpose, the way theaters and premieres already do. Live sports is the model.
• The human on screen. A real actor's performance and likeness become a licensed asset, signed and paid for, and the proof it's real is part of the price. Stars become IP owners of themselves.
• Owned worlds. Franchises and catalogs act as the coordination points for attention: the characters everyone already knows. A decade of moat before generated worlds compete.
• The theater as a room. Physical, communal, unfakeable. It survives as an event venue, not a distribution channel.
Who takes the money:
The platforms that hold attention and own the generation tools, and the IP owners who license worlds and likenesses into them. The studio as we know it, a production company with a distribution deal, is the mid-tier, and it gets squeezed from both sides.
The big call:
The dominant medium stops being film at all. Games and film merge into generated interactive worlds, and the thing a teenager in 2032 does on a Friday night doesn't have a name yet. Film becomes what theater became after film: respected, smaller, and about the live human in the room.