The $10-$15 trillion total addressable market for AI, if it is successful, is actually "terrifying". - The famous "Dean of Valuation", Professor Aswath Damodaran, of NYU Stern School of Business. The reason: AI as a tool is a much smaller market; AI as a replacement for human-jobs is where the giant market story comes from. "The best-case scenario for AI, that $10 to $15 trillion market, will happen if ONLY it replaces people. If AI is a tool, it’s going to be a much smaller market than if AI replaces people. So, the stories we’re telling about $10, $20 or $25 trillion markets are actually terrifying stories for the rest of the world. Why? Because if that story comes true, half of all white-collar people are going to lose their jobs. And what are they going to do instead? Who’s going to come up with the income to buy the products and services? If AI works as well as it’s supposed to and replaces people, how do we deal with that as a society? Because people lose their jobs. Not only do you lose your income, you lose your life’s meaning.." ---- Video from "Excess Returns" podcast Youtube channel (link in comment)
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Replying to @rohanpaul_ai
Fwiw, from where I sit, some AI economic modeling seems to skip over how unsettled the entire environment still is. task productivity gain → enterprise productivity gain → labor savings → profit But capability is not the same thing as monetizable productivity. 🧵

Oct 3, 2026 · 2:00 AM UTC

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