The $10-$15 trillion total addressable market for AI, if it is successful, is actually "terrifying". - The famous "Dean of Valuation", Professor Aswath Damodaran, of NYU Stern School of Business. The reason: AI as a tool is a much smaller market; AI as a replacement for human-jobs is where the giant market story comes from. "The best-case scenario for AI, that $10 to $15 trillion market, will happen if ONLY it replaces people. If AI is a tool, it’s going to be a much smaller market than if AI replaces people. So, the stories we’re telling about $10, $20 or $25 trillion markets are actually terrifying stories for the rest of the world. Why? Because if that story comes true, half of all white-collar people are going to lose their jobs. And what are they going to do instead? Who’s going to come up with the income to buy the products and services? If AI works as well as it’s supposed to and replaces people, how do we deal with that as a society? Because people lose their jobs. Not only do you lose your income, you lose your life’s meaning.." ---- Video from "Excess Returns" podcast Youtube channel (link in comment)

Oct 2, 2026 · 6:47 PM UTC

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Replying to @rohanpaul_ai
Look at the jobs report for the past two years. There's been hardly any new jobs created in the business services sector, and we know that attrition alone would mean more openings over a two year period. So, AI is already having the effect of killing jobs.
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Replying to @rohanpaul_ai
Typical Academic garbage every Ai tool does automate parts of a job, which inevitably blurs the line. When software makes a worker five times more productive, a company eventually needs fewer workers to output the same volume. So Ai is essentially replacing people !!
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Replying to @rohanpaul_ai
the replacement workforce gets the gains. we get to compete with it.
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Replying to @rohanpaul_ai
AI真正颠覆的可能不是某个行业,而是“劳动换收入”这套分配机制。如果AI创造的价值来自替代大量白领,那么问题就不再是AI能创造多少GDP,而是这些新增价值最终由谁获得、又如何重新分配。
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Replying to @rohanpaul_ai
I really want a place where one can make a public bet on AI replacing people fully. I would bet otherwise. This nonsense has gone too far. There is absolutely no way AI can replace humans. It is a failure of human intelligence that it can't see that AI can never be intelligent enough to replace human work. The context of our work is so varied, at times so personal, and at times so without meaning that AI will never be able to do it.
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Replying to @rohanpaul_ai
That's why the Universal income BS doesn't make sense. On another note, I think for the next 20 years there will be a long list of TODOs for automation that were put on hold in the past due to costs. Also landownership will be a big deal once labour(AI) becomes cheap.
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Replying to @rohanpaul_ai
US businesses now thrive from lawsuits & mergers. Not sales. Can’t sue an AI. Legal rulings reinforced the warranty law void tech CEO’s claim no warranty. Can’t sue for unlimited damages, i.e. Delta airline/Crowdstrike bug. Companies replacing humans also replace litigiation too
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Replying to @rohanpaul_ai
Hot take. Fuck your jobs. I already lost mine as a developer and no one gave two shits when it was my job. Let it do all the work and we’ll figure out how to make it work later.
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Replying to @rohanpaul_ai
"AI replaces people", "people lose their life's meaning" I wonder if this man has ever consider that there's more to life than production of goods and services and job titles? Sometimes it's so weird to read these absolute idiot takes from people who are suppose to be smart.
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Replying to @rohanpaul_ai
The hours I spent on his models years and years ago. His opinion carries real weight
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Replying to @rohanpaul_ai
Is this clown show finance professor back for round 2 after being apocalypticly wrong about the uber valuation?
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Replying to @rohanpaul_ai
Expansion of money creation never needed peoples income or working but an illusion of it. It continues unabated with money getting worthless and people getting feeling richer.
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Replying to @rohanpaul_ai
Demand collapses if nobody has disposable income to spend.
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Replying to @rohanpaul_ai
Tractors replaced people and we seem to be okay
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Replying to @rohanpaul_ai
Fwiw, from where I sit, some AI economic modeling seems to skip over how unsettled the entire environment still is. task productivity gain → enterprise productivity gain → labor savings → profit But capability is not the same thing as monetizable productivity. 🧵
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Replying to @rohanpaul_ai
Why would companies replace people with an Anthropic API when they can do that with a local model or cheap open one. That said AI is still likely to bankrupt your company in one transaction and say my mistake, if you let it.
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Replying to @rohanpaul_ai
New forms of white collar. Jobs will emerge. Its not the end of the world in any case the world has to produce factors more energy to meaningfully replace human work
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Replying to @rohanpaul_ai
Higher ED is in for a huge reset!!
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Replying to @rohanpaul_ai
yeah and what happens when people unite to destroy all AI companies? exactly. that part will come too.
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Replying to @rohanpaul_ai
No value jobs, Low value jobs would be replaced by Superintelligence
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Replying to @rohanpaul_ai
Wow. A business prof who falls for the 'lump of labor' fallacy? PLEASE.
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Replying to @rohanpaul_ai
Jevon's paradox will always be confusing to people.
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Replying to @rohanpaul_ai
Replacing human labor on that scale changes the whole game.
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Replying to @rohanpaul_ai
The economy isn’t a zero sum game.
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Replying to @rohanpaul_ai
terrifying is one word for it
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Replying to @rohanpaul_ai
The optimists will say that humans freed from the kinds of jobs that AI can do will be released to do the jobs AI cant do. That is an ever shrinking pool as AI continually extends the boundaries of its capabilities Optimists also say that AI will produce so much abundance that work will become optional for humans anyway. But producing abundance is a technological problem we seem to be on the verge of solving, while distributing abundance is a political problem we are barely at the beginning of solving. Pessimists think that large numbers of permanently unemployed people with no purpose to their lives will cause societal breakdown, but these pessimists are people with careers that mostly involve sitting in comfortable, climate controlled offices discussing interesting topics with people who mostly agree with them. Most people dont have a career or a purpose, they have a job. Tell a miner after a 10 hour shift underground or a retail worker after 10 hours on her feet working a till, that they are about to lose their purpose and they'll think its a sick joke. The reality is that the vast majority of the human population will be freed from drudgery and choose to use that freedom to indulge in AI generated entertainment. That offends those who think equate work with morality, a cognitive bias that has to be shed before the real solutions to the real problems that the transition to a non-human work force will create.
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Replying to @rohanpaul_ai
"who buys the products" is the question labs don't price in
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Replying to @rohanpaul_ai
And yet only around 5% of AI projects in organisations generate enough ROI to stay in production. Having anything that can hallucinate at the controls is a large barrier to getting anywhere close to the market sizes projected.
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Replying to @rohanpaul_ai
Labor reductions are not attributed to AI productivity gains, but more so to offset high CapEx.
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Replying to @rohanpaul_ai
@grok is it really necessary for individuals to buy and sell goods and services or can not corporations simply transact between themselves and government?
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Replying to @rohanpaul_ai
So easy to answer
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Replying to @rohanpaul_ai
The central question appears to be: Will AI act as a substitute or as an enhancement for labor? It’s easy to imagine it as a substitute for some kinds of work, less so for others.
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Replying to @rohanpaul_ai
‘Dean of Valuation’ has not used any existing examples of AI or technology deployment and how it relates realistically in defining realistic valuation. Too big brushes hallucinating all over!
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Replying to @rohanpaul_ai
Human imagination will create new roles for newer pursuits
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Replying to @rohanpaul_ai
Most of the jobs indians have taken?
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