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WarFronts | Fronts.co retweeted
I joined the Due South podcast to discuss African economies, energy security, and the growing risks posed by declining oil production. We explored the “resource curse,” terminal oil decline, economic diversification, and how today’s global energy disruptions are affecting countries across Africa. @WarFrontsWeekly 🎙️ Listen here: fronts.co/podcast/due-south-…
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Announcing DefenseFronts on YouTube! A new channel by Simon & team. Debut episode by the astute @Rebel44CZ, on the advent and importance of non-combat drone tech in warfare. Check it out!
Here is a long video from a new @WarFrontsWeekly related channel about the numerous militarily important uses of non-combat drones. I wrote the script on which this video is based. piped.video/watch?v=QI3n7ICa…
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Good analysis of IDF’s apparent lack of preparation for modern drone-enabled ground engagements.
5 minutes d'une compilation de frappes du Hezbollah 🟨 contre l'armée israélienne 🇮🇱 au Sud-Liban 🇱🇧 Quelques observations : 🔸La guerre en Ukraine a commencé il y a 4 ans et demi, que faisait Israël ? La guerre des drones actuelle a lieu depuis 2023, ils ne l'ont pas vu ? 🔸Quand on voit le nombre de systèmes de défense aérienne, disposés à découvert, sans filet de protection, les groupes de 10 soldats, les véhicules sans protection supplémentaire contre les drones, on se demande s'ils ont observé la guerre en Ukraine... Et on parle du Hezbollah (un groupe armé décapité en 2024, frappé constamment, et d'Israël, le pays qui dispose d'une des meilleures armées au monde. Manquements visibles : 🔹Aucun camouflage des équipements 🔹Aucune protection supplémentaire des véhicules (filets, cages en acier...) 🔹Positions d'artillerie et de défense aérienne à découvert 🔹Soldats regroupés, parfois des groupes de 6 à 10 hommes, alors que la guerre en Ukraine a enseigné l'espacement des soldats 🔹Aucune défense anti-drone (il y a probablement des brouilleurs, mais les FPV à fibre optique ne peuvent pas être brouillés 🔹Où sont les FPV israéliens ? Où est la traque des pilotes de FPV ? On parle d'une guerre où Israël dispose de la suprématie aérienne totale Ces dernières années, les drones FPV ont été très clairement visibles en Ukraine, mais pas que : 🇸🇾 HTS en Syrie 🇲🇲Rebelles en Birmanie 🇲🇽 Cartels au Mexique 🇲🇱 Djihadistes/rebelles au Mali 🇸🇩 Armée au Soudan 🇪🇹 Rebelles en Ethiopie 🇾🇪 Armée et rebelles au Yémen Si même après 4,5 ans de guerre en Ukraine, même Israël, une des armées les plus modernes du monde, est incapable d'avoir tiré les enseignements de la guerre des drones, je doute que l'armée française le soit… Je le dis et le répète, la priorité n'est pas d'avoir des pilotes ou des réserves de drones ! La priorité est que l'ensemble des soldats/commandants soit formé à la lutte antidrones, au camouflage et aux "nouvelles règles" qui découlent de la guerre des drones. Avoir une force aérienne ou une artillerie ne sauvera pas les soldats qui resteront en groupe, qui ne camoufleront pas leurs véhicules et qui ne se déplaceront pas de manière espacée et discrète…
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Shutting down an experimental drone assault unit reads as an obvious mistake. It may not be. Pentagon proposed a roughly $55 bn budget for UAS and counter-drone tech in FY2027. That’s the “DAWG” program. For reference, Marine Corps budget in FY2026 was $57.8 bn
The U.S. Army is phasing out a drone assault battalion established in Europe to study Ukraine warfare lessons, under a "back-to-basics" approach by acting chief Gen. Christopher LaNeve. The unit will return to airborne infantry duties after a German exercise, with critics warning the move will slow Army drone innovation. -WSJ
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Excellent thread by @clement_molin on Ukraine's fallback points and contingency options, in advance of a likely Russian push this autumn. For more information from WarFronts on Russia's coming assault: piped.video/watch?v=ytZiDr1N…
Between Izium and Orikhiv, the Ukrainian army has developed a massive defensive line spanning 300 km, featuring no fewer than 67 secured checkpoints/passages. For 2 years, Ukraine 🇺🇦 dug thousands of kilometers of ditches to stop Russia 🇷🇺's "infinite" manpower. 🧵THREAD🧵1/20 ⬇️
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The latest from expert Jakub Janovsky @Rebel44CZ, at Fronts.co: fronts.co/article/government…
I have just written an article for @WarFrontsWeekly explaining what makes Starlink so useful for military users and what the status and prospects of alternative services are, given everyone's preference not to have to rely on the decisions of Elon and the US government.
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With all the talk of the Mecca Alliance in opposition to Iran, don't lose sight of the larger context. This is a manifestation of the same regional rivalry that's been developing in the Middle East and the wider world for years: Israel-Emirates-Morocco-Ethiopia-India-etc vs Turkey-Saudi-Egypt-Qatar-Pakistan-etc See the Israeli minister's statement below.
Israeli Diaspora Affairs Minister Amichai Chikli: The Mecca Alliance is a very dangerous and very troubling development. Saudi Arabia was essentially sitting on the fence. It already had a defense agreement with Pakistan, but the moment it goes with the Turks—who are in a direct confrontation with us, one that could develop to dimensions that may have extremely serious consequences, both in the Mediterranean and on the Syrian front, this is a development that is very, very bad for us, for Israel. It requires us to deepen our alliances with Greece and Cyprus, the United Arab Emirates, and Somaliland.
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Huge news for the future of the Middle East.
Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan signed the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement, creating a mutual defense alliance where an attack on one is treated as an attack on all. A Turkish official speaking to Reuters clarified that the agreement is defensive in nature and designed to complement existing alliances.
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Reports per Yemeni int'l gov indicate at least 30 killed across multiple Houthi attacks. The wider Middle East war will enable Houthi action, potentially major, in the coming weeks or months. But the Houthis' goals are very much their own: territorial control, Saudi blockade.
Reports are emerging of a significant Houthi assault on the Saudi backed Yemen Emergency Forces encampment near Marib, Yemen with several casualties reported. This video purports to show the aftermath of one of the attacks, though it has not been verified. Marib is the internationally recognized Yemeni government's last major stronghold in northern Yemen and is home to critical oil and gas infrastructure. Saudi Arabia has supported government forces there for years to prevent the Houthis from consolidating control over northern Yemen.
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Good to keep an eye on Afghanistan right now. Growing anti-Taliban discontent nationwide, and Pakistan clearly open to future rounds of military engagement.
🚨🇦🇫 JUST IN: Anti-Taliban Resistance Intensifies in Afghanistan The Afghanistan Freedom Front (AFF) fighters killed 21 Taliban fighters, including several commanders, during a major assault on Taliban positions in Badakhshan, Afghanistan's mineral-rich province. The anti Taliban resistance movement appears to be gaining momentum. The Taliban unofficially have acknowledged casualties among their ranks and admitted to setbacks in the ongoing fighting.
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Protests picking up in India, despite minor concessions by the Modi government. India's been long overdue for this sort of display, especially given larger global trends toward Gen-Z-driven uprisings -- including in neighboring Nepal and Bangladesh.
GEN Z PROTESTS IN INDIA: Tens of thousands of Gen Z students have taken to the streets in India to demand the resignation of the education minister over a severe exam paper leak, which led to the cancellation of the National Eligibility Entrance Test for aspiring undergraduate students, and widespread youth unemployment. In May, more than 2 million undergraduate hopefuls took the exam, only for an investigation to later reveal that it bore problematic similarities to a previously circulated "guess paper." Now, the youth-led Cockroach Janta Party, or CJP, has mobilized tens of thousands of Gen Z students to protest the Indian government. In one photo, a model blocks a police van carrying detained protesters during a demonstration demanding educational reforms in Mumbai, India. Other photos show demonstrators clashing with police.
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Note: Houthis are framing their ongoing Red Sea action as a targeted blockade of Saudi Arabia, related only tangentially to the war in Iran. True? Maybe, maybe not. But if Houthi targeting info hasn't updated since 2024/2025, it may not matter.
NEW | The Yemeni Houthis began enforcing a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia, which will worsen already-strained global shipping and African supply-chain disruptions. The United States has signaled that it may forcibly disrupt the Houthi blockade, which could trigger a military escalation that involves US or allied positions in the Horn of Africa, although the Houthis and the United States both face constraints that disincentivize an extended conflict with each other. 🧵⬇️
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Important report via @TheStudyofWar — Russian mass mobilization appears to be on the way.
First criminals. Then we'll see if they mobilize civilians. understandingwar.org/researc…
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Key briefing on the ongoing battle in Mali and surrounding context, by @SaladinAlDronni on Fronts.co. Check it out ⬇️ fronts.co/article/mali-prove…
My latest analysis of the situation for @WarFrontsWeekly and the context of why Russia and Mali on one side and Tuaregs with al-Qaeda affiliated JNIM on the other are fighting what seems to be the most important battle of last years in the Sahel. Open access. Link below.
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Sign us up @Aviation_Intel
News sites should have a way to certify they are not written by AI. There are a couple in the defense tech space that are clearly using it. I am sure it’s the same with other publishing niches. Audiences should know.
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Signs of escalation all week in Iranian Kurdistan. Unclear whether there's any escalation planned from the Kurdish side, but if Iran is operating on that premise, then Kurdish forces may find themselves engaged regardless.
MORE | Iranian forces may have launched an effort against Kurdish militancy around the Iran-Iraq border. Iranian forces conducted missile and drone attacks targeting Kurdish militias around Erbil and Sulaymaniyah in Iraqi Kurdistan on July 2. The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Ground Forces Hamzeh Seyyed ol Shohada Operational Base separately announced on July 2 that it ambushed a Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI)-affiliated cell that entered Iran through the northwestern border and killed five of its members near Piranshahr, West Azerbaijan Province. The IRGC claimed that the group carried improvised explosive devices. Kurdistan Free Life Party (PJAK) separately confirmed on June 30 that the IRGC killed four of its members during clashes with IRGC Ground Forces Hamzeh Seyyed ol Shohada Operational Base personnel near Mahabad and Piranshahr in West Azerbaijan Province. Unspecified armed individuals separately killed two IRGC personnel and injured two others in Paveh, Kermanshah Province, on June 30. These operations come after Armed Forces General Staff-run outlet Defa Press stated on June 20 that the regime is closely monitoring fighters in Kurdistan, West Azerbaijan, and Kermanshah provinces and has replaced “purely defensive reactions” with an “active deterrence” doctrine.
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Possible interpretation: Hold the status quo. Favor entrenched federal governments, offer carte-blanche endorsement for action on territory they control, and hope this satisfies their ambitions while disincentivizing cross-border conflict. Consistent with Trump's broader preference for authoritarian states to mostly be left alone so they can handle their own business, and also reflects a suitably limited understanding of the dynamics at play here.
Totally agree, but also struggling to square this with persistent rumors of US normalizing ties with Eritrea.
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