Co-Founder & Chief Investment Officer at Brilliant Advice My posts here are not financial advice. Tesla referral link: tesla.com/referral/cern38435

Austin, TX
Here’s an update on STRC and Strategy’s other preferred stocks - as they pursue a move to daily dividends. Anyone looking for income from their investments should learn about these instruments as they make for interesting alternatives to cash, CDs, savings accounts, money market funds, bonds, option income strategies and even stocks. While our discussion is not investment advice, this discussion (and our previous shows on this) will help you learn!
Sounds Impossible, and Too Good to Be True 🔥 Daily Dividends 🔥 10% interest or even more 🔥 Dividends treated as return of capital
5
3
81
7,662
What is the impact of SpaceX's data center build out on GDP? It will be rather large! I discuss it in this video with Herbert and in the two posts below...
Elon and Jensen say each gigawatt of AI compute adds about $50–60B a year to the economy. @CernBasher ran it on Ark's SpaceX projections: 2.1 GW this year, 67 GW by 2031. That works out to about 12% of today's US GDP from one company's data centers. Elon says he'd be disappointed if they only hit those numbers. $SPCX
5
13
93
7,867
SpaceX's Impact on GDP Growth
SpaceX's Impact on GDP Growth If we just isolate on SpaceX's intelligence factory (data center) growth over the next few years (per ARKInvest), and using the numbers that Elon and Jensen discussed yesterday, SpaceX would add: 0.39% to GDP growth in 2026 1.38% to GDP growth in 2027 2.42% to GDP growth in 2028 3.23% to GDP growth in 2029 6.02% to GDP growth in 2030 12.30% to GDP growth in 2031 That's just the impact of intelligence factories from just one company! Note 1: Over the last 10 years (2016–2025), the U.S. real annual GDP growth rate averaged 2.43%. Note 2: Of course, these numbers aren't precise projections, but directionally indicative of where we're heading. Note 3: Elon thinks that ARK's compute projections are too low (see below).
1
1
22
2,677
Data Center's Impact on GDP Growth
Data Center's Impact on GDP Growth In this interview, Elon estimates that every 1% increase in U.S. power usage (roughly 5 gigawatts of incremental steady-state production) will yield a 1% increase in the national GDP. He notes that this is driven by the fact that "useful intelligence per watt" continuously increases at both the hardware and algorithm levels. Thus, adding 10 gigawatts of power would result in a 2% increase in GDP. Jensen then breaks this down mathematically, calculating that each gigawatt of power used for artificial superintelligence factories can generate approximately $50 billion to $60 billion of economic output per year. This aligns with a 1% GDP bump equating to about $300 billion generated from 5 gigawatts. 10 GW results in an incremental 1.85% GDP growth. 50 GW results in an incremental 9% GDP growth. 100 GW results in an incremental 18% GDP growth. 500 GW results in an incremental 92% GDP growth. Staggering numbers. Intelligence knows no limits. We've invented a magic GDP growth machine and some want to turn it off?
1
17
2,327
Robotaxi Fleet Growth to Sustain 17% Growth If Tesla is going to sustain the 17% week-over-week growth in paid autonomous miles, here's the number of vehicles they need (assuming 100 paid miles per day) until the end of the year. This table also shows the number of vehicles they need to add each week. Currently in Texas (not including Florida) they have 589 vehicles registered - so it appears that they are about two weeks ahead of the number of vehicles they need to maintain the 17% growth trajectory. Of course, they could always grow faster than 17% for a period of time. The revenue numbers in the table assume $2.50 per mile.
Tesla's Q3 report said nothing about Robotaxi, so @CernBasher did the math himself! At 17% weekly growth in paid miles and about 100 miles a day per car, the fleet needs around 450 cars right now. Texas already has 578 registered, including 158 Cybercabs. The catch is that this need doubles every month: about 1,500 cars by the end of November and 3,000 by the end of December. Watch the registrations. October 21 gives us the next data point. $TSLA
30
26
283
20,530
Lewis mapped how far a Model Y goes for the price of one gallon of gas, using July 2026 residential electricity rates and early October gas prices. The national average is 83 miles; low-rate states reach well over 120.
What if you could drive 83 miles for the price of one gallon of gas? That’s what the numbers say for a Tesla Model Y at average U.S. energy prices. In some states, the same dollars buy more than 125 miles.
33
52
473
36,259
How far can ONE DOLLAR of electricity take a Tesla Model Y in your state? At the U.S. average residential rate, about 19 miles. Depending on the state, that same dollar buys anywhere from 7 to 27 miles of driving.
1
16
2,697
They are just having too much fun with these numbers!
420 Model Y's and 158 Cybercabs By my estimates they are adding enough vehicles to keep the 17% week over week growth rate going - which will hopefully be confirmed on the Q3 earnings call in a few weeks.
11
16
364
19,231
$TSLA: Elon Just Lined Up $30 Billion For The Product Nobody's Seen x.lingyaoai.com/i/broadcasts/1DGLdZrLd…
3
10
141
15,713
Tesla's Massive Impact as of Q3 2026 With 10.2 million Teslas sold since 2012 here's a rough estimate of the annual impact of all those Teslas: 1) 4.3 billion gallons of gasoline not burned every year - avoiding roughly 38 million metric tons of tailpipe CO₂. 2) About $19 billion saved annually by not buying gas. Some of that goes to electricity, but most of it stays in drivers' pockets. Assumes 13,500 miles driven per year, 32 MPG (if they were driving an ICE car) and a fuel cost of $4.40 per gallon. These savings are quite conservative as fuel costs in Europe are more than double that in the U.S. 3) 10.2 million people (plus their families) who don't have to stop at nasty gas stations. 4) 360 million gas-station fill-ups avoided every year. 5) 2,867 fewer gas stations needed (assuming the average gas station sells about 1.5 million gallons per year). 6) 60 million hours of human time saved annually. Assuming just 10 minutes per gas-station stop and those avoided fill-ups save almost 60 million hours a year - equivalent to roughly 6,800 years of human life every single year. Home charging changes the refueling experience from something you actively do to something that happens while you sleep. 7) 10.2 million people who resolve most "recalls" with over-the-air software updates without wasting time at sleazy car dealerships. 8) No oil changes - so there's another 34.4 million gallons of motor oil saved (assuming oil changes every 5,000 miles and 5 quarts of oil used). Used-oil waste handling also disappears. 9) 10.2 million fewer tailpipes = better air quality, especially in urban areas. That means fewer asthma cases and less respiratory illness. 10) Millions of other maintenance items eliminated. No spark plugs, engine air filters, fuel injectors, fuel pumps, catalytic converters, mufflers, exhaust systems, alternators, starters, timing belts, or conventional multi-speed transmissions. Not all would be replaced every year, obviously, but across 10.2 million vehicles the cumulative reduction in parts, manufacturing, service labor, and waste is enormous. 11) Thousands of tons less brake dust every year. Applying EPA brake-wear estimates and published regenerative-braking reductions to 137.7 billion Tesla miles suggests roughly 2,200 - 3,250 metric tons of brake particulate emissions avoided annually. 12) Thousands of tons of gasoline vapors never enter the atmosphere. Teslas have no fuel tanks, gasoline lines or refueling events, eliminating evaporative hydrocarbon emissions from billions of miles of driving and billions of gallons of gasoline handling. 13) Potentially 3.7 billion cold starts eliminated every year. Cold starts can produce a disproportionate share of a gasoline car's local air pollution because the catalytic converter hasn't warmed up yet. Teslas simply don't have them. 14) Even idling disappears. If comparable gasoline cars averaged just five minutes of idling per day, 10.2 million Teslas represent roughly 80 to 155 million gallons of gasoline a year that isn't burned while going nowhere. 15) Tesla also eliminates an enormous gasoline supply chain. 4.3 billion gallons equals roughly 102 million barrels of gasoline a year, or about 280,000 barrels every day. That's the equivalent of roughly 1,400 gasoline tanker loads every day that don't need to be delivered to filling stations. 16) Millions fewer combustion engines producing engine and exhaust noise. At low urban speeds, EVs can be several decibels quieter than comparable gasoline vehicles. At higher speeds the advantage largely disappears because tires, airflow and road surfaces become the dominant sources of noise. 17) About 10 million people have (FSD ready) vehicles that have the potential for a built-in chauffeur! The car increasingly becomes a machine that can also give its owner time back. 18) And the safety impact may ultimately dwarf everything above. Teslas incorporate automatic emergency braking, active collision-avoidance systems, extensive crash engineering and increasingly capable driver-assistance software. Across billions of miles traveled every year, even relatively small improvements in accident frequency or severity can translate into meaningful numbers of injuries - and potentially lives - saved. Note: I realize that not all 10.2 million Teslas are in operation today - sadly some were lost in accidents with Hondas (@WhamBaamX) and a few more were torn apart by @teardowntitan I know this is not an exhaustive list - what did I miss?
25
92
506
20,642
Tesla Q3 Inventories - Super Low By my calculations, Tesla's global vehicle inventory was approximately 11 days for Q3, down from just 15 days in Q2. While delivering more vehicles than they produced is good for Q3's operating cash flow, it could make Q4's deliveries a bit challenging (depending on whether the production constraints were solved in Q3 or if they still linger). That said, 11 days of inventory is not the true picture - it's really lower than that if we take into account "transport days." 1) Transport Days: the number of days needed to transport newly produced vehicles from the factory to the end customer. If we assume that vehicles made in Fremont, Texas and Berlin generally take two weeks to be delivered via rail and/or truck to the customer, and if we assume that vehicles made in Shanghai are split 50/50 between exports and in-country sales then the global average transport time comes to about three weeks (measured as 18 days). 2) True Inventory Days: this is the difference between the total Inventory Days of Supply and the Transport Days - bringing the Q3 2026 global average to -7 days of inventory! cc @thejefflutz
25
24
325
17,162
Over the long-term, Tesla delivers what they make.
1
1
24
2,286
Production versus deliveries since Q3 2012 Tesla has produced about 120,000 more vehicles that have been delivered - so that's a very rough measure of their inventory.
3
11
1,080
Tesla - Energy Growth in terms even Wall Street can understand - Q3 2026 As we all know, Wall Street still insists on thinking about Tesla primarily as a car company. Fine. Let’s meet them where they are. Over the trailing 12 months, Tesla delivered 1,742,908 vehicles. Wall Street understands vehicle deliveries. The problem is that, on a trailing 12-month basis, Tesla’s auto deliveries haven’t really grown since Q4 2023. Wall Street does not like this. Some analysts may already be seeing expensive therapists to work through their issues. But Tesla has quietly been building another kind of “vehicle.” It’s big. It’s boxy. It doesn’t have a steering wheel, pedals, mirrors or even wheels! And its primary design feature is that it gets parked somewhere and basically never moves again. It also happens to consume far more batteries than a Model 3, Model Y, Model S, Model X or Cybertruck. So, to make this easier for Wall Street, let’s translate Tesla Energy deployments into something analysts already understand: 75 kWh vehicle equivalents. On that basis, Tesla sold the equivalent of another: 669,333 “vehicles” over the trailing 12 months. Now that looks more interesting. Those big boxy vehicles are up 15% year over year and up 113% over two years. Suddenly Tesla has a growth business again! And when we combine actual automotive deliveries with these boxy vehicle equivalents, Tesla effectively delivered 2,412,241 vehicles over the trailing 12 months. That total is up roughly 5% over the past year and up 15% over the past two years. Also, Tesla continues to expand the capacity of this new boxy business - so the outlook is quite positive. And finally, here's another plus - no advertising is needed to sell these big beautiful boxy vehicles. They just sit there and sell themselves! In case you didn't know, these big beautiful boxy vehicles are called Megapacks (and soon Megablocks), but please don't tell Wall Street.
12
43
322
14,404
Tesla has delivered more than 10 Million Vehicles Tesla produced 464,391 EVs last quarter. Cumulative production is now at 10,325,623. Tesla delivered 486,532 EVs last quarter. Cumulative deliveries is now at 10,208,405. Who was the lucky 10 millionth customer?
5
42
257
10,343
Tesla Q3 Energy Deployments Not a Car Company deployed 13.7 GWh of energy storage in Q3. Trailing 12 month deployments were 50.2 GWh. Cumulative energy deployments are now 145.6 GWh. 34.5% of the cumulative energy deployments were deployed in just the last 12 months. The trailing 12 month deployments of 50.2 GWh represents 76% of the 66 GWh+ production capacity (Powerwall + Lathrop and China Megapack) - and that's before the Megablock factory in Houston is ramped up.
20
34
378
14,879
420 Model Y's and 158 Cybercabs By my estimates they are adding enough vehicles to keep the 17% week over week growth rate going - which will hopefully be confirmed on the Q3 earnings call in a few weeks.
And there you have it: 420 Model Y's and 69 Cybercabs! The fleet didn’t scale. It aligned.
13
33
440
33,338
Tesla's Superchargers delivered 2.4 TWh of energy in Q3 - up 20% over Q2 and up 33% from the same quarter one year ago.
13
67
618
20,133
During the quarter, the average Tesla charged 6.6 times at a Supercharger (assuming a charge equal to 50% of the battery's capacity) and took in 247 KWh.
1
3
26
2,356