I get asked often about where I see the Bitcoin price in the future. Everyone has different timescales in mind when they ask me this question.
I certainly do not claim to know with certainty where the Bitcoin price will be next week, next month or even next year. Nobody does. But when I look at previous cycles, the continued growth in adoption, where I believe Bitcoin sits today, and then add in that I believe we have come out of the recent drawdown, I think there is a very interesting period ahead of us.
If history is any guide, Bitcoin has tended to move in cycles. Those cycles have historically been closely connected to the four-year halving cycle, with periods of significant appreciation followed by significant, decreasing, corrections. There has been plenty of discussion over whether that four-year cycle is now dead. Personally, with everything I can see right now, I am not convinced that it is; I think it may simply be evolving.
As Bitcoin becomes a larger and more widely owned asset, it seems reasonable to me that both the upside and downside volatility should gradually reduce. That does not mean the returns cannot still be extraordinary. I can quite comfortably imagine a scenario where Bitcoin increases more than five-fold during the next major cycle and, if previous cycles are anything to go by, that upward journey could play out over several years including plenty of volatility along the way.
Equally, there will be drawdowns. There always have been. The recent correction was around 50%, and perhaps future corrections become progressively less severe as Bitcoin matures and adoption increases. We could therefore continue to see something resembling the four-year cycle, but with lower volatility in both directions as the asset becomes larger, more liquid and increasingly integrated into the global financial system.
Of course, this is simply how I think about it today. The market will ultimately tell us whether that view is right. I have never believed that successfully owning Bitcoin requires being able to predict every move in the Bitcoin price. In fact, I think attempting to do that is probably an unwise approach. In my view the best approach is just to buy Bitcoin whenever you have capital to save for the future.
On an individual level, I find it uncomprehensible for someone to justify having no exposure to Bitcoin at all. That does not mean everyone should have the same allocation. People have different circumstances, different attitudes towards risk and different time horizons. But when an asset has absolute scarcity, global liquidity, a transparent monetary policy and what I believe is still enormous potential for further adoption, I struggle to understand the argument for not owning Bitcoin.
Over time, I think the same question will increasingly be asked by companies, charities, institutions and countries. The appropriate level of exposure will be different for each, but the underlying reasons for owning Bitcoin do not change. If Bitcoin continues to become more widely understood and adopted, I think the number of balance sheets with some Bitcoin exposure will continue to grow.
That transition will not happen overnight. Bitcoin remains volatile, it is still relatively young and there are practical, regulatory and governance considerations that will naturally make some move more slowly than others. But I believe the direction of travel is clear.
At Smarter Web, we made our decision some time ago. Bitcoin sits at the centre of our balance sheet and our long-term strategy, alongside the continued growth of our operating businesses. We are incredibly proud to have built by far the largest public company Bitcoin treasury in the UK, and we intend to keep building from here.
Turning to the week itself, it has been another extremely busy one.
As shareholders know, we are working towards the Possible IPO of MORE Preferred Shares and the publication of a Prospectus, subject to FCA approval. There is a limit to what I can say while that process continues, and I do not want to get ahead of the appropriate regulatory announcements.
What I can say is that MORE has been a significant focus for us recently. There is a huge amount of work involved in bringing something like this to market, particularly when we are trying to do something that has not been done before in the UK.
I know shareholders are keen to hear MORE, and I am equally keen to be in a position where we can say MORE. For now, the team is working incredibly hard and we will continue to update the market when we are able.
One thing that times like this reinforce is just how fortunate I feel to have the team we have built around Smarter Web. MORE is an important project, but it is far from the only thing happening. Our operating businesses continue serving clients, the PLC team continues working across the wider strategy, and there are multiple workstreams moving forward at the same time.
When there is this much happening simultaneously, having talented people who take ownership and get things done makes an enormous difference. I am grateful to everyone across Smarter Web for the work they continue to put in.
On Wednesday evening, I recorded another Bitcoin Treasuries Podcast with Tim Kotzman. Tim was one of the first people I spoke to on a podcast shortly after Smarter Web became a public company, so it was great to catch up and talk about how far things have developed. We are already planning to do another one soon. You can find the conversation on X and YouTube.
Then on Thursday, Miller hosted the latest Smarter Web Livestream with Lance Vitanza from TD Cowen. Lance has an enormous amount of knowledge and experience, and I thought it was particularly interesting to hear the perspective of a large financial institution on Bitcoin and Bitcoin treasury companies. This conversation is also available on X and YouTube.
Next week I will be joining Miller for the Smarter Web Livestream. I am looking forward to talking about everything Smarter Web, Bitcoin and whatever else seems interesting by Thursday.
Finally, thank you, as always, to our shareholders and everyone who continues to support Smarter Web. I look forward to sharing MORE with you soon.
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