Tech Investor; not financial advice

Manhattan, NY
Pinned Tweet
Never settle
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Please @SenTomCotton pass the bill
Trump gives out Tom Cotton’s cell number over the daylight savings bill.
Great point. There is a lot they can do with that money to ensure they are no longer cyclical
Here’s what annoys me about how insanely cheap all the memory names from $MU and $SNDK to $DRAM, $SKHY, etc. are: Has nobody freaking figured out that these companies, who are AT THE HEART of the AI buildout and are printing billions in cold hard profits every quarter, will be able to go on an unprecedented buying spree and buy all the critical companies, resources, etc. in the supply chain to build integrated AI systems much closer to NVIDIA than legacy commodity memory? Market, turn on your brain please. You think these CEOs are retarded or got here by accident? These are people who have multi-year plans, my friends.
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Leo retweeted
Price action this week
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A lot of memory? LFG
Agents are expensive because they need a lot more inference But in fact, most of the cost is NOT inference. It's keeping an agent alive AI agents need A LOT OF CPUs and A LOT OF memory to get things done!!!
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The statue of Prometheus is finally finished. It was cast in Paris, crossed the Atlantic, and was assembled at Starbase. It took us 100 days to go from nothing to this. People of the West, we have lived through an era devoid of dreams, devoid of destiny. But the time has come to reclaim our dream of antiquity. In a few months, we will start building a new city. It will be the most magnificent city in all of history. After all, the great dream of the West has always been to rebuild Rome. Come walk beside us in this endeavor. The world is waiting.
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At least they’re realizing but I doubt they change
Didn't Ben Franklin you can count on life, death, taxes, and Europeans realizing America was right after throwing temper tantrum hissy fits for years on end
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Leo retweeted
$MU holders right now
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And 2028
MICRON $MU "WE EXPECT MEMORY AND STORAGE SUPPLY-DEMAND CONDITIONS TO BE MUCH TIGTHER IN FISCAL 2027 AND 2028 THAN THEY WERE IN 2026."
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Wow they crushed
MICRON $MU Q4’26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS 🔹 Revenue: $54.23B (Est. $51.07B) 🟢; +379% YoY 🔹 Adj. EPS: $33.42 (Est. $31.61) 🟢 🔹 Adj. Gross Margin: 87.0% (Est. 86.1%) 🟢 Q1 FY27 Guide: 🔹 Revenue: $61.5B ± $1.5B (Est. $57.02B) 🟢 🔹 Adj. EPS: $38.15 ± $1.00 (Est. $35.40) 🟢 🔹 Adj. Gross Margin: ~86.25% (Est. 86.4%) 🟡 CapEx & Cash Flow: 🔹 Operating Cash Flow: $43.97B (Est. $34.47B) 🟢 Business Unit Revenue: 🔹 Cloud Memory: $16.28B 🔹 Core Data Center: $18.00B 🔹 Mobile and Client: $13.11B 🔹 Automotive and Embedded: $6.82B Other Q4 Metrics: 🔹 Adj. Oper Income: $44.64B (Est. $42.41B) 🟢 🔹 Adj. Net Income: $38.40B (Est. $36.31B) 🟢 🔹 GAAP EPS: $32.87 Key Updates: 🔸 Quarterly dividend of $0.15 per share Comments: 🔸 “Micron delivered record fiscal 2026 results, and we expect an even stronger fiscal 2027”
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Long and strong $MU $SKHY
Those who expected only a single-digit increase in Q4 will need to revise their models.
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Leo retweeted
[DS증권 반도체 이수림] Micron 실적발표 전 체크포인트 $MU 1. Earnings check - 3분기 실적 비트보다 차분기 가이던스와 FY27 GPM 지속 가능성이 중요 - 메모리 가격 상승과 공급 부족에 대한 기대가 이미 높아진 만큼, HBM4 램프업도 중요할 것 1) FY4Q26 매출: $51B 내외가 컨센서스, $52B 수준이 긍정적 서프라이즈 기준 - 기존 가이던스: $50.0B ±$1.0B - 스트릿컨센: 약 $50.5~51.4B - 기존 가이던스 상단인 $51B까지 이미 시장 기대치에 반영 2) FY4Q26 EPS: $32 내외가 실질적인 기대치 - 기존 가이던스: $31.00 ±$1.00 - 스트릿컨센: 약 $31.4~31.7 - $32 안팎이 현재 시장의 실질적인 허들 3) FY4Q26 Non-GAAP GPM: 87% 이상 여부 - 기존 가이던스: 약 86% - 스트릿컨센: 약 87% *FY3Q26 GPM 84.9%에서 추가 상승 예상. 향후 GPM이 mid-80% 이상에서 얼마나 오래 유지될 수 있는지가 핵심 4) FY1Q27 매출 가이던스: $57B 내외 - 스트릿컨센: 약 $56.3~56.7B - 현재 Street는 전분기 대비 약 11~13%의 추가 성장을 기대 - $56B은 컨센 부합, $57B 이상 가이던스가 제시되어야 서프라이즈일 것 5) FY1Q27 GPM 가이던스: 87~88% 유지 여부 - 스트릿컨센: 약 86.5~87.5% - 최근 주가 상승을 감안하면 매출보다 GPM 가이던스가 중요한 숫자가 될 전망 - FY27 EPS 컨센서스가 $150~200까지 높아진 만큼 높은 GPM의 지속 가능성이 핵심 2. 추가 체크포인트 1) HBM4 램프업 및 NVIDIA Rubin향 공급 일정 - Rubin향 HBM4 본격 매출 시점 - HBM4 고객 확대 여부 - 현재 약 20% 수준인 HBM 점유율 확대 여부 - HBM4E의 CY27 양산 일정 - HBM4 가격 및 HBM3E 대비 프리미엄 *NVIDIA Rubin의 본격적인 양산은 2027년 4월 전후로 진행될 것으로 보임 2) DRAM/NAND 가격 상승의 지속 가능성 - 금분기 DRAM ASP 20% 이상 QoQ, NAND ASP 약 20% QoQ 상승할 것으로 전망 - CY27에도 공급 부족이 지속된다고 언급하는지, DRAM/NAND 가격 상승 속도가 얼마나 둔화될 것으로 보는지가 중요 3) SCA 확대 및 가격 상단 문제 - 신규 대형 CSP와의 SCA 체결 여부 - SCA 적용 매출/bit 비중 확대 여부 - 가격 ceiling이 FY27 GPM에 미치는 영향 - Apple 등 consumer 고객과의 장기계약 확대 여부 * Micron은 현재 16개의 SCA를 체결. 이 가운데 14개 계약의 minimum-price 기준 누적 매출은 약 $100B이며, 계약에 따른 고객 deposit 및 financial commitment는 $22B 규모 * 다만 향후 계획된 SCA가 모두 체결될 경우 전체 매출의 약 40%가 고정가격 또는 2Q26 시장가격 부근에 ceiling을 둔 계약이 될 전망 * 현물·계약가격이 계속 상승할 경우 오히려 SCA가 Micron의 추가 ASP/GPM 상승을 제한할 수 있다는 우려가 존재 4) FY27 CAPEX 및 공급 증가 속도 - FY26 CAPEX: 약 $27B - FY27 예상: $40~50B 5) CY27 메모리 공급 부족에 대한 회사의 전망 - CY27 DRAM/NAND/HBM 공급 부족에 대해 이전보다 강한 표현을 사용하는지 여부가 삼성전자·SK하이닉스 주가에도 가장 중요할 것 6) 주주환원 재개 - Micron은 CHIPS Act 관련 제한이 종료되는 12월 9일 이후 capital return 확대 의사를 밝힌 상태 - 강한 FCF와 함께 자사주 매입 재개 규모 및 시점에 대한 구체적인 언급이 나올 가능성
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$14.7 billion per month through Jan 2028. @JensenHuang is the goat
"NVIDIA today announced that its Board of Directors has authorized an additional $150 billion under the company’s existing share repurchase program, increasing the total remaining amount authorized to $235 billion. The company expects to execute the total remaining program through fiscal year 2028."
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What does it mean to be “rich” in the United States? Net worth breakdowns: Top 1% = ~$13.7 million Top 2% = ~$8.5 million Top 5% = ~$4 million Top 10% = ~$1.9 million Top 25% = ~$660,000 Top 50% = ~$193,000 ...Do these numbers surprise you?
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When the money starts coming in, keep your f*cking mouth shut.
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10 year LTAs
$MU $SKHY $DRAM Holy Shit. According to Daishin Securities, some customers are asking for 10-year LTAs to Samsung. Also, Samsung's LTAs terms are extended by another year, every year so it always has 5 years of demand on the books. This is Huge! Source: Chosun (Major Outlet)
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"Friends returning from Asia tell me memory sold out till 2031" 😮 $MU $DRAM $DISK $EWY $SKHY
$MU preview by Wellsf.. earnings coming up. Friends returning from Asia tell me memory sold out till 2031. For whatever it’s worth (told by memory bulls). Do your own DD. NFA.
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This is the truth. Government spending won’t stop so neither will inflation
People really need to stop thinking about 5% yields over 10 years or 30 years. Even the inflation of my $SUBWAY sandwich has gone up like 12% a year. Today it was like $20 after tax, when it used to be like $5… 12 years ago. The best way to keep up with inflation of the things that matter, like Sandwiches, is equities like $SPY.
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Leo retweeted
Capitalism is just another name for freedom. Socialism is just another name for slavery.
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Nailed it
AI memory demand remains extremely strong. Supply is still constrained. UBS thinks shortages extend into 2027. Buybacks could become enormous. Wall Street earnings estimates are still too low. Investors should focus less on the next quarter and more on the multi-year earnings power of Micron. $MU
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