Sebastian retweeted
This is going to drive some people crazy but I’ll say it: $CRWV is a better bet right now than $NBIS. I own both but I shifted a large part of my $NBIS position to $CRWV after a 9x return. Here is why: I previously made the case that $NBIS’s lower leverage was just an illusion and it would leverage up with scale. We are seeing this as $NBIS quarterly average interest rate on its debt has been increasing, while $CRWV’s has been coming down since it’s getting increasingly derisked as the revenue scales. Exactly because of that scale, its capex per total revenue is substantially lower than both $IREN and $NBIS. Meanwhile, it’s trading at 2x 2027 revenue while $NBIS is at 6x. As I said, I own both, but my $NBIS average is around $30. If I were considering an entry now, I would definitely go with $CRWV.
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Sebastian retweeted
Yield_xyz is a gateway for adoption in the institutional and retail wallet space. The yield team is at the frontier of driving adoption of earn products across the ecosystem by making it super easy. Today integrating a confidential vault is super easy!
Need for confidentiality shouldn't require institutions to leave the platforms they already use. Zama's confidential vaults are coming to wallets and fintechs powered by Yield.xyz.
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Sebastian retweeted
Burry's short, Jensen's long... Where do you stand? $CRWV
BREAKING: Michael Burry has shared updated positions. He says he opened a new short position on CoreWeave $CRWV and added to short positions on: -Micron $MU -Semi ETF $SOXX -Palantir $PLTR
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Sebastian retweeted
$CRWV is becoming a more obvious buy everyday. $GS predicts $NBIS to generate $35.5 billion in sales and $9 billion in EBIT in 2030. Important part of their assumption is that this ramp relies on $NBIS securing $13 billion financing. This will get $NBIS closer to $CRWV in terms of leverage. I have modelled $CRWV earnings through 2030 and it’s obvious that Debt/EBIT ratio declines below 5x by 2030 if the backlog converts and it reaches 7-8 GW deployed capacity target. If this is the case, how does it make sense to value $CRWV at the same level as $NBIS when $CRWV has 2x $NBIS’s backlog and its EBT will be higher than $NBIS’s EBIT? If $NBIS’s valuation is fair here, $CRWV is criminally undervalued.
Goldman Sachs now sees $NBIS producing ~$30B of annual EBITDA by 2030 on ~$36B of revenue. That outlook is backed by execution as the first $META contract is already delivered, the $MSFT ramp remains on track, contracted power targets exceed 4GW by year-end and non-hyperscaler GPU demand runs ~4x above available supply. Nebius is also proving it can fund that growth without relying heavily on new shares by securing $775M of debt against deployed GPUs and creating a potential ~$12B financing path from $40B of contracted revenue while its asset-light model could unlock even more capacity and higher-margin revenue.
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Sebastian retweeted
💰 Idle stablecoin balances are the norm onchain. They don't have to be. Today, we're adding @yield_xyz to @dfnsHQ with 6 vaults on Ethereum and Base. Allocations is how institutions on DFNS put balances to work: deposit, track, and withdraw, through one API, under the same controls as everything else they run. Each new protocol adds more your treasury can do, without leaving governed infrastructure. The launch set covers the stablecoins institutions actually hold: ✔️ @SkyEcosystem Savings Rate (sUSDS) on Ethereum ✔️ @gauntlet_xyz USDC Prime on Ethereum and Base ✔️ @SteakhouseFi USDT on Ethereum ✔️ @SteakhouseFi USDC on Base ✔️ @SentoraHQ PYUSD Main (@Morpho V2) on Ethereum (yield on @PayPal's stablecoin) Four curators. Four stablecoins: USDS, USDC, USDT, PYUSD. Two networks. And built to be safe: → Vault shares mint straight to your DFNS wallet. Your position is exactly what the chain says it is. → Every deposit and withdrawal passes the Policy Engine before anything is signed. → Rewards are read straight from the chain, calculated correctly across every deposit and withdrawal. 🛡️ Every transaction is checked by Shield, our open-source verification library. Even if something upstream were compromised, no unexpected transaction reaches your wallet. We're expanding slowly on purpose. ERC-4626 vaults only, for now. They're the industry standard, tested, and curated. One place for every yield source. Idle treasury becomes working treasury. That's what onchain core banking is for. 📖 Read it: dfns.co/article/yieldxyz-int… ⌨️ Start building: app.dfns.io
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Sebastian retweeted
Building on this foundation, here’s the real alpha I’m seeing for the next 6–12 months. Instead of picking the right model for each prompt, the next systems will test entire agent workflows at low cost first. They’ll figure out the cheapest way to get a successful result before spending on expensive models. ➥ The same task can cost 10-30x more depending on the path it takes ➥ Chinese open models are now close enough on real work that you can take your best results and use them to create cheaper, custom versions tailored to your exact needs ➥ Most day-to-day work will shift to your own cheaper setups or edge hardware ➥ Expensive frontier models will only be used for the hardest parts The teams that win will stop tracking raw token counts and start measuring cost per real outcome (like code shipped or problems solved)
How to keep AI spend flat while token usage grows exponentially: Not with friction and spend alerts. With better defaults, routing, and caching. Better Defaults (not Usage Caps) – Engineers can choose any model they want, but defaults matter. We’re experimenting with defaulting to open weight models like GLM 5.2 and Kimi 2.7 through our LLM gateway, while still encouraging engineers to choose the right model for the task. 91% of our employees were never hitting their usage caps, so instead of lowering caps and driving up alerts, we're moving to cheaper defaults. Note that code reviews use a diversity of models, so they can check each other's work. Better Routing – In our custom harnesses, we preprocess prompts and route to the best model for the job, considering cache hits and model pricing. For instance, you may want a frontier model for planning, but not for execution where they can be overkill. Ultimately, humans shouldn't be choosing models - AI can automate this task. Better Caching – Cache misses are the easiest way to drive your cost up. All of our requests are cache aware, so we’re reusing a warm cache wherever possible. For example, our cache hit rate went from 5% → 60% in LibreChat once properly implemented. Keep Context Lean – Start fresh sessions when switching tasks. Scope file context narrowly. Disconnect unused tools. Don't just compact. The goal isn't fewer tokens used, it's fewer tokens wasted. Better Visibility – Our engineers can use as many tokens as they want, from whatever model they want, but we’ve made usage visible – and the more you spend on AI, the more impact we expect. The goal isn't to suppress usage. It's to build the infrastructure that makes exponential growth sustainable. Putting this into practice has cut our AI spend nearly in half, while our token usage continues to grow.
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The fascinating thing about @Pumpfun right now is that it has the best fundamental story in crypto, yet nobody is talking about it. For example, how is it that nobody realizes that PUMP paid out over $5.2m to its creators in the dead of a crypto winter over the last 30 days (more than X paid out over the same period, to my knowledge)? My guess is that PUMP does not pay for data/marketing/investor relations. As such, the top data firms aren't covering it. Lesson in there. Most data/research shops are marketing companies masquerading as data companies. If you'd like to access our PUMP dashboard, see the link below 👇
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Sebastian retweeted
Stablecoin yields, now live @Trezor powered by Yield.xyz. 2M+ users can now access noncustodial stablecoin yield, directly in Trezor Suite.
Earn yield on USDC or USDT on Ethereum without leaving Trezor Suite. No dApps, no browser extensions, no new accounts. Powered by Morpho, one of the most stress-tested and audited lending protocols on Ethereum. Start now with just a few clicks.
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In my experience, you don't make money in crypto by chasing the latest narrative. You make money by turning over rocks where nobody is looking. By finding market dislocations where the popular narrative doesn't align with reality. By waiting for the "fat pitch." And buying when you think the risk/reward is tilted in your favor. This is what bear markets are for. For doing the work to find these opportunities. The work that the "trend chasers" won't do. In the last bear market, the largest dislocation was on SOL -- created by the popular narrative that "the devs were fleeing" post FTX. I believe a similar dislocation is forming today. We covered it in yesterday's issue of The Watch list, in which we compared PUMP to HYPE across: - Market Segments - Financials & Fundamentals - Token Economics - Valuation If you didn't know that @Pumpfun user retention numbers have increased each year and are UP in 2026, 7+ months into a "risk-off" environment, you might want to check out the report. Link below 👇
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Suddenly, you’re 35. Pretty wife, two kids, mortgage in a nice neighborhood, golden retriever...and you love markets more than ever. Still checking your portfolio first thing in the morning and doing research at night. But it’s different now...you aren’t 22 fresh out of college with no responsibilities, no bills, no family to support. You can’t (shouldn’t) play the 0DTE, memecoin, all in, highly leveraged short term games forever. Huge losses literally can’t become a normal part of life anymore. So you adapt. Swing trading shares, compounding, research, longer time frames, conviction, risk management. You build mind-boggling amounts of wealth without carrying massive risk every single day. Slowly at first, then all at once. It’s time. ♥️Luc
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Sebastian retweeted
Perpetuals trading is live inside @Ledger Wallet, provided by @Yield_xyz.⚡️ Execution is routed through @HyperliquidX, bringing self-custodial perps to hardware wallet users with full clear-signing on every transaction. Perps trading is progressively rolling out to Ledger users, starting today:
Perps are finally coming natively to Ledger Wallet™. Buy. Sell. Swap. Earn. Now trade perps. All in one place - without ever leaving Ledger’s secure environment.* Long. Short. Direct from your wallet, with 100% Clear Signing. Understand exactly what you are signing before you approve it. Provided by @yield_xyz, built on @HyperliquidX and secured by your Ledger signer. Free from compromise 🔐 Perps trading involves significant risk. See below.
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Sebastian retweeted
Yield.xyz is partnering with @DfnsHQ to bring native yield capabilities to their wallet infrastructure platform. Dfns is the secure OS for onchain finance, trusted by Circle, Gemini, Midas, IBM, and dozens of regulated institutions. (1/3)
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Sebastian retweeted
Reap is partnering with @Yield_xyz to power new yield opportunities. ⚡️ Reap’s card module grants corporate treasuries access to stablecoin-powered infrastructure, enabling payments for seamless global finance. Earn while you spend, coming soon to @Reapglobal
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RT @HamidRezaAz: A Day 3 recap of the war (with focus on Iranian strategic narrative): 🔹CENTCOM confirms that U.S. strikes on Iranian miss…
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Sebastian retweeted
Native @0xPolygon staking is available in the Ledger Wallet app. We’ve integrated @Yield_XYZ to remove the complexity of earning rewards without removing the security of your Ledger signer. Grow your stack. Keep your keys offline. True digital ownership.
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Sebastian retweeted
Finally, Bitcoin fell to $60k last week, which is in the support zone that I suggested a few months ago when I wrote that another 4-year cycle bull market had likely ended. A decline to “only” $60k would be relatively shallow for a Bitcoin winter, but as the commodity currency matures, its ups and downs should become less dramatic. It’s anyone’s guess whether $60k is the low, but my guess is that it is, and that after a few months of backing and filling the next cyclical bull market will get underway. Based on the mathematical harmony of past cycles, which of course are not a guarantee of future cycles, my sense is that any future waves could eventually take us to new highs.
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Was Brexit worth it? In 2016, the UK voted to leave the EU. In 2025, the average EU citizen is now richer than the average Briton. For the first time in modern history. UK: $65,907 GDP per capita EU: $66,589 GDP per capita The lines crossed. You can debate the causes: → Brexit friction → COVID response → Energy crisis exposure → Investment flight → Currency weakness But the data doesn't lie. The UK went from 15% richer than the EU average to poorer in less than a decade. This isn't about politics. It's about economics. And economics always wins in the end. What do you think went wrong?
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$BTC a little MORE pain to go......
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RT @HenrikZeberg: Why does @truflation forecast declining/plummeting INFLATION? Because inflation is lagging the Business Cycle! Follow t…
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