Keeping it halal and sharing my research. Subscribe on Substack below for Discord access.
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To show you guys how I think through my swings, I wrote a FREE post recapping the incredibly successful trading week last week. Link in first reply.
I go through the thought process of every trade and here are the numbers -
$MU: 5%
$DELL rounds 1&2: 8%
$MU round 2: 12%
$PENG: 8%
$META: 6%
$GOOGL, $LLY, $ISRG: 2-3% each
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It’s $NVDA’s time to run and suck up liquidity from all other names.
Nvidia $NVDA reinstated as Top Pick in semis at Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley is reinstating Nvidia as the analyst's Top Pick in semis after having recently hosted Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang and CFO Colette Kress for investor meetings.
The biggest takeaways include the diversity of the customer base, growth within traditional hyperscale and frontier labs and that the strategy is to drive up revenue per GW substantially, to ensure that Nvidia solutions continue to drive the most tokens per gigawatt.
Recent developments in land/power/shell, financing, component constraints, and agentic "all play to their strengths," says the analyst, who has an Overweight rating and $300 price target on shares.
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This is pulling down $STX and $WDC, although I don’t think the increased capacity puts a dent in storage demand.
No position
#Toshiba will double AI data center #HDD capacity within fiscal 2027, investing roughly JPY 60 billion (US$380 million) in its Philippine plant. Its share by storage capacity is just over 10%, with a medium-term target of 30%. 💡More: pse.is/9pn7bv 🔗 $WDC $STX
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At some point TPU sales will outstrip GPUs and $GOOGL will scale its hardware business. Capacity is the #1 constraint and Broadcom is making progress there.
Nobody is pricing that in.
Flip side is $NVDA will need to eat some margin loss starting 2028. Unit volume will increase but 75% is not sustainable.
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$GOOGL has a golden window of opportunity to create an AI Agent integrated with g-suite. It can become their top workspace and consumer product.
Can they execute?
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LLM race boils down to compute and data, and $GOOGL has much more cheaper compute and multi-modal data than openAI or Anthropic.
They’ll easily win this race, and $META can be the only frontier competitor if they want it bad enough.
Lots of discussion out there about our next model(!), so I wanted to give an early look as soon as possible. Introducing Gemini 4 Argon!
It shows frontier performance in complex workflows, cyber defense and software engineering. Teams are using it extensively at Google, from coding to quantum computing, great feedback.
Here’s a look at the benchmarks:
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Seems analysts are starting to care more about semi company CapEx and less about hyperscaler CapEx.
You know what that means...
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$MU "We intend to increase our capital return from Dec 9, 2026. Over time we expect to return 100% of excess cash to shareholders."
No increase in buyback number though - they might announce it in a separate press release.
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$MU "Customer cash deposits in fiscal Q4 were $12B." This partially offsets their CapEx.
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$MU No peep on buybacks yet. Let's see if Sanjay announces it later in the call.
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$MU "Even at floor prices we expect margins to be meaningfully above any prior cycle peak margins"
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$MU "We've now signed SCAs into 2031". This is a company trading at 5 PE.
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$MU "Memory tightness will be higher in 2027 and 2028 than in 2026."
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$GOOGL ripping and the group is banking! Caught the lows in low 340s Alhamdulillah.
Join us!
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$MU ASP expected to still increase 120% yoy. Those LTAs will keep coming in.
“Against a backdrop of continued memory price increases, TrendForce notes that suppliers have also taken a firmer stance on raising HBM prices in 2027. TrendForce has raised its 2027 HBM price outlook to reflect persistent supply constraints, a growing share of higher-priced HBM4, and the gradual ramp-up of HBM4e in 2H27. Blended ASP is now projected to jump 121% YoY.”
trendforce.com/news/2026/09/…
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You have accounts that post predictions with a thesis. And then you have accounts that do commentary on moves already done.
Unfollow the commentators. Your timeline will be much cleaner.
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It’s a matter of time $NVDA breaks out of 230 InshaAllah.
They’re the only one gushing insane FCF with essentially no CapEx at 14x fwd PE.
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