Serving a
$DASH order through an AI agent costs $0.02 to $0.20 cents of compute, against $1.70 of contribution profit per order. The napkin math:
Unit economics, from the Q2-26 10-Q:
• Average order: ~$34
• Revenue: ~$4.60 (13.5% take)
• Contribution profit: ~$1.70 (5.0% of order value)
• Adj. EBITDA: ~$0.95 (2.8%)
Everything below is measured against that $1.70 contribution profit.
Moving forward, an agent doesn't make one call. It browses, compares and checks out, and every step re-reads its context. At market prices for frontier-class open models (~$1.30 per million input tokens, ~$0.10 cached), a session costs (est.):
• Reorder "my usual", ~45k tokens: ~$0.02
• New discovery order, ~135k tokens: ~$0.06
That is 40x to 120x the compute behind a Google search.
$GOOGL earns ~4¢ per search and spends ~0.05¢ of compute on it (est.), and its largest variable cost is the ~0.7¢ of traffic acquisition it pays Apple, Samsung and others. Advertisers pay per click, so they carry the searches that don't convert. An agent paid on a take rate carries a different equation.
For DoorDash that means the failed sessions land on the completed orders. If 80% of reorder sessions convert, compute is ~2.4¢ per completed order, and if 30% of discovery sessions convert, it is ~20¢. Both conversion rates are my assumptions, not disclosures.
Contribution profit per order:
• App order: $1.70
• Agentic reorder: ~$1.68
• Agentic discovery: ~$1.50
Compute takes 1.4% of the margin on a reorder and 12% on discovery.
Those two ratios are also the break-even. An agent order that would have happened in the app anyway carries the compute as pure added cost, so the agent pays for itself once 1.4% of its reorders, or 12% of its discovery orders, are orders DoorDash would not otherwise have had.
What absorbs the compute is the take rate. The same $34 discovery order on a payments-style 0.3% fee would need 58% of sessions to convert to cover it, and at DoorDash's 13.5% it needs 1.3%. Merchants of record on marketplace takes (
$DASH,
$BKNG,
$EXPE,
$AMZN) can add an agent for cents per order, while a third-party agent on a thin fee is confined to repeat and big-ticket purchases until merchants can no longer refuse it.
So the exposure sits on the revenue line. Ads reached a ~$1B annualized run-rate in 2025, about 7% of DoorDash's $13.7B of revenue, which is 26¢ to 33¢ of the $4.60 it earns per order (est.). They are sold in the app feed, and an agent order never opens the feed. The agent's costliest order burns 20¢ of compute, and the average order carries ~30¢ of ad revenue it doesn't show. But there's a scenario Doordash put sponsored options for the agents, ensuring those ads were read by the agent, delivering better ROAS for advertisers.
The line to watch as agent orders scale is net revenue margin, 13.5% in Q2-26, since that is where displaced ads would show. I'm wrong on compute if contribution profit falls below 4.5% of order value with management citing AI serving costs.