Director @AtlanticCouncil | Former US Deputy Special Envoy for Yemen & NSC Gulf Director
Washington, D.C.
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Glad to see Congress speaking up on the importance of the Famine Early Warning Systems Network as the administration considers cutting support for this important tool in combatting famine & food insecurity
Ranking Members @RepGregoryMeeks and @RepAngieCraig are raising the alarm on the State Department’s reported plans to phase out U.S. support for the Famine Early Warning Systems Network—a vital program to detect and respond to early signs of developing food security crises around the world.
Read the letter: democrats-foreignaffairs.hou…
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Allison Minor retweeted
وجه صاحب السمو الملكي الأمير خالد بن سلمان بن عبدالعزيز وزير الدفاع، دعوة لأخيه سمو الشيخ منصور بن زايد آل نهيان نائب رئيس دولة الإمارات العربية المتحدة الشقيقة نائب رئيس مجلس الوزراء رئيس ديوان الرئاسة، لزيارة المملكة غدًا الثلاثاء 18 ربيع الآخر 1448هـ الموافق 29 سبتمبر 2026م.
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Excellent analysis of how the Houthis seized Yemen's Red Sea Coast. If the Yemen govt & Saudi can't find a way to manage distrust & competing agendas w/in the anti-Houthi coalition & forge a unified command w/ a unified strategy, Houthi control will likely continue to expand 🧵
My first piece for @newlinesmag .
The Seven-Day Lightning Offensive That Changed Yemen’s War
How the Houthis seized the country’s western coastline and reached for Bab al-Mandab
The Houthis’ lightning offensive and seizure of key positions around the Bab al-Mandab Strait is a game changer, extending the group's reach to one of the world’s most vital maritime choke points, writes Yemeni journalist @mohammedalqadhi for @newlinesmag. newlinesmag.com/reportage/th…
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IMO, the most important US contribution right now is not airstrikes on Yemen - it is using its convening power to help Yemeni and regional partners build this unity, in addition to helping Saudi Arabia defend against future Houthi attacks.
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With talk of the US getting directly involved in the fight against the Houthis, my question is what exactly US involvement - especially airstrikes - accomplishes? After years of such strikes, how would that fundamentally change the Houthi strategy or the balance of power in Yemen
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I enjoyed joining @FareedZakaria this week to explain why the weaknesses within Yemen's anti-Houthi coalition are among the Houthis' greatest sources of strength & the shifting role of the US in the region
The conflict between Saudi Arabia and the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen is escalating, after Houthi rebels seized more land along Yemen’s Red Sea coast. Could the fighting spiral out of control? My conversation with @AtlanticCouncil’s @AllisonMinor_:
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On GPS, at 10am & 1pm ET Sunday on @CNN …
• How worried should we be about the recent spate of incidents at AI companies in which AI agents appear to have broken free & run rampant? I’ll discuss with one of the pioneers of the AI revolution, @MicrosoftAI CEO @mustafasuleyman
• Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels have seized key coastal territory on the Red Sea, and their conflict with Saudi Arabia is escalating. Could the fighting spiral out of control? I’ll discuss with the @AtlanticCouncil’s @AllisonMinor_
• Journalist @jacobwe, author of the new book “Profiles in Cowardice,” joins to discuss notable capitulations to Pres. Donald Trump
• As the midterm elections approach, @DanaBashCNN will take us through pivotal elections in American history that are featured in her new book, “The Elections That Changed the World”
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Allison Minor retweeted
The US can sustain the Iran blockade, but at a high cost. Over 30% of available warships are tied up, with operating costs near $1B a month. The war is sapping military readiness; is the pressure worth the price?
My analysis in @business (gift link): bloomberg.com/graphics/2026-…
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The rapid Houthi gains along the Red Sea should be a wake-up call: there is still no credible military solution to Houthi threats. But the region & US also cannot afford to ignore those threats. April Alley and I offer an alternative approach in our new piece in Foreign Affairs
If the anti-Houthi coalition fails to address its internal divisions and establish a “credible political vision for resolving the Yemeni conflict,” the Houthi threat will continue to expand across the region, warn April Longley Alley and @AllisonMinor_.
foreignaffairs.com/yemen/ira…
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Allison Minor retweeted
Sometimes a short clip says more than pages of analysis. Here, a Houthi commander who was previously detained by government forces explains why the Bab el-Mandeb Strait matters so much strategically. He tells his soldiers that they no longer need drones or missiles. They could simply position artillery “here and there” along the coast and fire in all directions at ships passing through the strait.
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Allison Minor retweeted
Breaking Houthi forces have reportedly begun arriving on the strategic Red Sea islands of Jabal Zuqar and Greater and Lesser Hanish. The move follows weeks of Houthi operations aimed at cutting supply lines to the islands, including reported strikes on piers and attacks on supply vessels.
The islands are strategically important because of their position near the southern Red Sea shipping corridor and Bab al-Mandab. Their capture would mark another significant shift in control following the Houthi advances along Yemen’s West Coast.
maps.app.goo.gl/EpypKaT6soZW…
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The Houthis' seizure of Mokha is a major development: not only does it ease their ability to disrupt maritime traffic, esp if they take nearby Perim Island, it also strengthens their control of historic north Yemen, including by dealing a blow to Tareq Saleh's forces
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Allison Minor retweeted
Houthis mamaged to push through, Hays, Al-Khawkhah and now Mocha, effectively capturing most of the western coast. The government defensive line appears to have been overwhelmed and the National Resistance Forces has been ordered to establish an alternative command center in a safer location.
The fighting is now shifting south toward Dhubab, which is considerably more consequential strategically because it sits directly on Bab al-Mandab opposite Perim/Mayyun Island.
Control of Dhubab and Perim are key to controlling the maritime chokepoint. Houthies are moving toward positions from which they could exert substantially greater military pressure over the strait and the Red Sea.
Where Iran maintains severe pressure on Hormuz while the Houthis establish the ability to seriously disrupt Bab al-Mandab, you effectively have pressure on both maritime exits of the Arabian Peninsula. The regional and international implications and consequences are dire.
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Allison Minor retweeted
In line with @BashReport’s 14 August 2026 forecast, Houthi forces appear to be pushing west toward Yemen’s Red Sea coastline. The latest reports claim Houthi forces have seized the strategic Noman Mountain. The pictures in the @googlemaps link below show the commanding view from the mountain.
Tonight, Houthi-aligned accounts are jubilant amid reports that a wider ground operation has begun in western Ta'izz, with several posts pointing toward Al-Mukha and the Red Sea coast. This marks the first serious battlefield test for the Yemeni National Army on the Ta'izz axis as it faces a sustained Houthi ground push toward the western coast. Some Houthi-aligned accounts are also urging followers not to publish details of military movements until official statements are released.
@Moh_Alhouthi said Houthi forces were conducting "new rehearsals" in the Red Sea amid confrontation with the Saudi-American coalition, describing them as preparation for another round against Israel and the United States and as part of efforts to break the blockade on Yemen.
@kadash2024 posted "قريباً .. التحالف خذلنا", roughly meaning government supporters will be soon posting "Soon... the coalition abandoned us."
@a_ali_alqasemi praised fighters from Ibb, Ta'izz and Hodeidah in particular, claiming they were engaged in major fighting at that moment and celebrating their actions.
@Malek_Almadani suggested fighting was underway without air cover, writing that "today the world will know what you are made of" and using the hashtag #اليمن_تتحرر.
@MohammedAlfrah said Saudi projects inside Yemen had failed and argued that Riyadh was now trying to preserve its influence through political, security and economic tools.
@Ahmed778800000 hinted that he was withholding significant information because of operational secrecy.
@Ibrahym22Nagi warned that Mocha in particular was "not safe" for opposing forces and called for their departure from Yemen.
@drahmedalshami urged supporters not to circulate reports about battles or military developments until they are confirmed by official Houthi media.
@Abdulsalmjahaf posted simply "بشارة", meaning "good news," and also reposted @hossam_basha7, who declared that all of Ta'izz, from the old city and Al-Jahmaliya to Mocha and the coast, belonged to Yemenis who had not aligned themselves with Saudi Arabia.
@saleh_alamdy urged strict information discipline, saying Houthi military instructions prohibited publishing or speculating about the course of military operations. In a separate post, he claimed there were "no red lines" or secure command rooms and said Houthi drones and missiles could reach fortified Saudi-linked positions.
@7HaiderBose shared the apparent mood of anticipation surrounding the developments.
@Akr_hajar referenced Houthi instructions not to discuss ongoing military movements before celebrating developments at Jabal Noman, repeatedly writing, "Praise be to God."
@muhamadeabiasd likewise urged followers to wait for specialized Houthi military bodies to officially announce developments from the fronts.
@hezamalasad accused Saudi Arabia of recruiting children and sending them into combat, while sharing a post of an alleged child soldier in government areas.
@Taleb1ye amplified a warning from @salmalmswdy9 advising civilians in Mocha to stay away from areas where military forces are gathering.
@Sam45moh speculated about where Tariq Saleh might go if his forces were pushed from Yemen's western coast, mentioning Marib, Aden, Saudi Arabia and the UAE while using #المخا, #الساحل_الغربي, #الكدحه and #الخوخه.
maps.app.goo.gl/5syLfs2NUZg2…
Houthi Command Structure Around the Bab al-Mandab Theater
The Houthi military structure facing the Bab al-Mandab and southern Red Sea theater includes senior commanders responsible for the Ta'izz and western coastal fronts.
Abdul Latif Hamoud al-Mahdi, also known as Abu Nasr al-Sha'af, commands the Houthi Fourth Military Region. His command includes the Ta'izz sector, placing forces under his authority along one of the main Houthi-controlled approaches toward southwestern Yemen and the Bab al-Mandab theater.
Aqeel Ahmed Mohammed Qasim al-Shami is a senior Houthi military commander associated with the Al-Nasr Brigades and the western military theater. The Al-Nasr formations have operated on the Hajjah fronts, while reporting has also linked al-Shami to naval and coastal-defense formations established along Yemen's western coast.
Al-Shami operates within a military and political system dominated at its highest levels by the al-Houthi family. Hamid Badr al-Din al-Houthi, a brother of Houthi leader Abdulmalik al-Houthi, belongs to this senior family network. His position is important when assessing the internal relationships behind Houthi commanders and formations. However, available public evidence does not establish that Hamid personally commands the Al-Nasr Brigades or directly controls al-Shami's operations.
Yusuf Hassan Ismail al-Madani, also known as Abu Hussein, occupies the most senior military position in this structure. Al-Madani previously commanded the Fifth Military Region, responsible for much of the Houthi-controlled western and Red Sea theater. He was subsequently elevated to Chief of the General Staff of the Houthi-controlled armed forces.
The resulting command picture places al-Madani at the general-staff level, al-Mahdi over the Fourth Military Region and Ta'izz axis, and al-Shami among the senior commanders associated with the western and northern coastal formations. Hamid Badr al-Din al-Houthi sits within the ruling Houthi family network surrounding these military structures, although his precise operational authority over al-Shami and the Al-Nasr Brigades remains unclear.
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Some important reminders on the limits of military force in Yemen in this article
Murderous illusions about force make comeback in #Yemen
amwaj.media/en/article/dange…
my most recent piece
@ChathamHouse @CH_MENAP
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Thanks to @BashaReport for this great summary of yesterday's congressional hearing on the Houthis, and thanks to @Ndawsari for a thoughtful dialogue on the role of the United States in Yemen
Yesterday’s congressional hearing on the Houthi threat highlighted an important debate over what a sustainable U.S. strategy in Yemen should actually look like.
@MiddleEastInst's @Ndawsari's argument centered on leverage. As she put it, “The most important source of leverage is territory.” Her point is that airstrikes and sanctions can impose costs on the Houthis, but they cannot remove the foundations of Houthi power. Territory gives the group access to recruits, revenue, ports, smuggling routes, and space to build and store weapons. For Al-Dawsari, this means Washington should focus on strengthening the Yemeni government and helping Yemeni forces regain territory. “The most sustainable way to reduce the threat, therefore, is to empower Yemenis to retake territory from the Houthis.”
@AtlanticCouncil's @AllisonMinor_ 's offered a different warning. “The first is that open-ended conflict ultimately advantages the Houthis.” Her argument is that years of Saudi-led military operations, U.S. airstrikes, and Israeli strikes have failed to eliminate Houthi capabilities or fundamentally change their strategy. In some cases, foreign intervention has strengthened Houthi recruitment and standing. For Minor, military pressure can still have a role, but it needs to serve a clear political objective. “Military pressure can play a role in countering the Houthis, but only when it is grounded in credible objectives and part of a broader political strategy.”
Al-Dawsari sees territorial pressure and a stronger Yemeni government as the way to build leverage over the Houthis. Minor sees a stronger Yemeni government, greater unity among its partners, and sustained diplomacy as the foundation for a negotiated settlement that can place enforceable constraints on Houthi power.
But their arguments also meet at an important point. Neither sees U.S. airstrikes alone as a sustainable answer. Both identify the weakness of the Yemeni government as a major source of Houthi strength, and both point toward a strategy that gives Yemenis a larger role in determining the outcome. The harder question for Washington is therefore not simply how to weaken the Houthis militarily. It is how to build enough political and military leverage inside Yemen to contain the threat without creating another open-ended war. piped.video/watch?v=ji-Vzccm…
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By striking a tanker off Yanbu, the Houthis are demonstrating that they can disrupt any ship offloading Saudi oil, not just those transiting south through the Bab Al Mandab
UKMTO WARNING 119-26
Click here to view the full product.⤵️
ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/prod…
#MaritimeSecurity #MarSec
ALT UKMTO WARNING 119-26
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Agreed this is a good idea in concept - and a joint Gulf facility vice just a Saudi one would be best - but lots of questions. The DFC mechanism failed b/c coverage was insufficient and not clear this can overcome that. Also, which ships can benefit?
For six months Gulf states have played with the idea to supplement Lloyd's of London underwriting for shipping
A joint Gulf fund to underwrite endeavours that are 'uninsurable' would be a good idea
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